Friday 24 July 2009

Companies with different EPS GR bought at different prices

Conclusion:

1. Best buy:
High EPS GR companies
Bought at a discount
Held for long haul

2. Good buy:
High EPS GR companies
Bought at a fair price
Held for long haul

3. Good buy:
Low EPS GR companies
Bought at a discount
Held for short haul

5. Do not buy
High EPS GR companies
Bought at high price
Avoid meantime
Be patient

6. Do not buy
Low EPS GR companies
Bought at high price
Avoid



The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=thtZJOZYT-iKNP3VPKg9jig&output=html


Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment
A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

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