KAF

Date announced 28/10/2010
Quarter 31/08/2010 Qtr 1
FYE 31/05/2011

STOCK KAF
C0DE  5096 

Price $ 1.53 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 8.47 Curr. DY 4.90%
LFY Div 7.50 DPO ratio 43%
ROE 9.6% PBT Margin 96.8% PAT Margin 71.8%

Rec. qRev 10406 q-q % chg 21% y-y% chq 3%
Rec qPbt 10077 q-q % chg 83% y-y% chq 22%
Rec. qEps 6.23 q-q % chg 56% y-y% chq 14%
ttm-Eps 18.06 q-q % chg 4% y-y% chq 158%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 7.00 Avg. L PE 5.00
Forecast High Pr 1.61 Forecast Low Pr 1.19 Recent Severe Low Pr 1.19
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 20% Downside 80%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 8%

CPE/SPE 1.41 P/NTA 0.81 NTA 1.89 SPE 6.00 Rational Pr 1.08



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr