myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Sunday 25 August 2013

Tesco Plc: Buy, Sell Or Hold?

Published in Investing on 22 August 2013

I'm always searching for shares that can help ordinary investors like you make money from the stock market.

Right now I am trawling through the FTSE 100 and giving my verdict on every member of the blue-chip index.

I hope to pinpoint the very best buying opportunities in today's uncertain market, as well as highlight those shares I feel you should hold... and those I feel you should sell!

I'm assessing every share on five different measures. Here's what I'm looking for in each company:

1. Financial strength: low levels of debt and other liabilities;

2. Profitability: consistent earnings and high profit margins;

3. Management: competent executives creating shareholder value;

4. Long-term prospects: a solid competitive position and respectable growth prospects, and;

5. Valuation: an under-rated share price.

A look at Tesco

Today I'm evaluating Tesco (LSE: TSCO) (NASDAQOTH: TSCDY.US)], a British multinational retailer, which currently trades at 363p. Here are my thoughts:

1. Financial strength: Tesco is in solid financial position. Net debt/operating cash flow is less than 2 times; net gearing is 50%; interest cover is an adequate 7.5 times; and free cash flow has averaged nearly £2bn per year over the last 3 years.

2. Profitability: Tesco has delivered outstanding growth for nearly two decades. However, with the continuing weakness in Europe and facing stiff competition at home, the company has struggled of late. In the last fiscal year, underlying profit before tax declined by 15% while underlying earnings per share fell by 14%. Forced to compete in price, the company's margins have contracted from to 3.4% from 5.6% the previous year.

Also, international trading profit declined by 22%, due to the impact of regulatory changes in South Korea and impairment of businesses in Turkey, Poland and the Czech Republic.

3. Management: I believe the company's new direction under Philip Clarke, which focuses on developing its "multichannel" footprint, strengthening its core UK business, and adopting a more prudent international growth strategy, places the company in a better position moving forward.

4. Long-term prospects: Tesco has fallen out of favour with investors recently after a rough 18 months where it was rocked by the horsemeat scandal, several quarters of declining market share and like-for-like sales, and write-offs of its Fresh and Easy US business and several UK properties of more than £1bn and £804m, respectively.

However, despite the grim outlook, I believe Tesco's competitive position remains solid. It is still the largest UK grocer with a market share of 30% --almost doubling that of its closest rival Wal-Mart's ASDA. It also owns the UK's widest store network with around 3,000 stores and the world's largest and most profitable online supermarket, which reached a record-high revenue of over £3bn last year. In addition, it is the number one or two retailer for general merchandise in 8 out of 9 of its international markets.

Furthermore, to adapt to the rapidly changing retail environment, the company has announced new strategic objectives which include: a shift from traditional large-store formats to building its "multichannel" retail capabilities such as convenience and online retailing; focusing on its core UK operations to maintain its leading position -- the company has invested around £1bn to overhaul its superstores; and adopting a more disciplined approach to international expansion, concentrating only on markets that could deliver strong investment returns.

5. Valuation: With a market cap of £30bn, Tesco trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 -slightly below its 10-year median P/E of 13 and the industry average of 12-- and a prospective dividend yield of 4%, twice covered.

My verdict on Tesco

Although recent results have been disappointing and with competition in the UK likely to remain competitive, I think the company still owns a distinct advantage with its scale and size. Also, its profitable international business --29% of the company's profits come from outside the UK-- and established online presence could be a source of future growth opportunities.

Moreover, the company intends to tighten capital spending during the next few years --around 3.5% to 4% of revenue-- which will add to its already strong cash flow. What's more, shares are trading at an undemanding P/E of 12, a discount compared to its peers Wal-Mart andCarreouflour.

So overall, I believe Tesco at 363p looks like a buy.

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2013/08/22/tesco-plc-buy-sell-or-hold.aspx?source=uptyholnk3030001

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My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Sunday 25 August 2013

Tesco Plc: Buy, Sell Or Hold?

A look at Tesco

My verdict on Tesco

No comments:

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

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