Tuesday 28 January 2014

Wishing You a Happy Chinese New Year

Get to Know the Magic of Compounding

Starting Value Double Triple Quadruple Rise 1,000%
$1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $10.00
100% 200% 300% 400% 1000%
Years Years Years Years
Return to to to to
Rates Double Triple Quadruple Rise 1,000%
6% 12 19 24 40
10% 8 12 15 25
14% 6 9 11 18
18% 5 7 9 14
22% 4 6 7 12
26% 3 5 6 10
30% 3 5 6 9
Compounding factor
Years 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 30%
0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
4 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9
5 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.7
6 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.8
7 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.0 5.0 6.3
8 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.9 6.4 8.2
9 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.4 6.0 8.0 10.6
10 1.8 2.6 3.7 5.2 7.3 10.1 13.8
11 1.9 2.9 4.2 6.2 8.9 12.7 17.9
12 2.0 3.1 4.8 7.3 10.9 16.0 23.3
13 2.1 3.5 5.5 8.6 13.3 20.2 30.3
14 2.3 3.8 6.3 10.1 16.2 25.4 39.4
15 2.4 4.2 7.1 12.0 19.7 32.0 51.2
16 2.5 4.6 8.1 14.1 24.1 40.4 66.5
17 2.7 5.1 9.3 16.7 29.4 50.9 86.5
18 2.9 5.6 10.6 19.7 35.8 64.1 112.5
19 3.0 6.1 12.1 23.2 43.7 80.7 146.2
20 3.2 6.7 13.7 27.4 53.4 101.7 190.0
21 3.4 7.4 15.7 32.3 65.1 128.2 247.1
22 3.6 8.1 17.9 38.1 79.4 161.5 321.2
23 3.8 9.0 20.4 45.0 96.9 203.5 417.5
24 4.0 9.8 23.2 53.1 118.2 256.4 542.8
25 4.3 10.8 26.5 62.7 144.2 323.0 705.6
26 4.5 11.9 30.2 73.9 175.9 407.0 917.3
27 4.8 13.1 34.4 87.3 214.6 512.9 1192.5
28 5.1 14.4 39.2 103.0 261.9 646.2 1550.3
29 5.4 15.9 44.7 121.5 319.5 814.2 2015.4
30 5.7 17.4 51.0 143.4 389.8 1025.9 2620.0
31 6.1 19.2 58.1 169.2 475.5 1292.7 3406.0
32 6.5 21.1 66.2 199.6 580.1 1628.8 4427.8
33 6.8 23.2 75.5 235.6 707.7 2052.2 5756.1
34 7.3 25.5 86.1 278.0 863.4 2585.8 7483.0
35 7.7 28.1 98.1 328.0 1053.4 3258.1 9727.9
36 8.1 30.9 111.8 387.0 1285.2 4105.3 12646.2
37 8.6 34.0 127.5 456.7 1567.9 5172.6 16440.1
38 9.2 37.4 145.3 538.9 1912.8 6517.5 21372.1
39 9.7 41.1 165.7 635.9 2333.6 8212.0 27783.7
40 10.3 45.3 188.9 750.4 2847.0 10347.2 36118.9
41 10.9 49.8 215.3 885.4 3473.4 13037.4 46954.5

Monday 27 January 2014

To maintain your portfolio at peak performance.

To pick the right stock for the long term, you should keep to:

1.  Buying quality companies
2.  Buying at the right price - potential return > 15% at acceptable risk (where the potential return to potential loss of >3x.)

Your ability to do the above is all you need to build a great portfolio that will meet your expectations.

To maintain your portfolio at peak performance, you will need to manage it well, optimizing its performance and preventing the companies that occasionally go south from damaging it.

Portfolio management chores take a minimal amount of time.



Related:

My strategies for buying and selling (KISS version)

Sunday 26 January 2014

Evaluating Quality first, then Price. Fair price is one associated with adequate return at acceptable risk.

1.   The most important task in buying a stock is to determine that the company is a good company in which to own stock for the long term.  (QUALITY)

2.  However, no matter how good the company, if the price of its stock is too high, it is not going to be a good investment.

3.  A stock price must pass two tests to be considered reasonable:
(i)  The hypothetical total return from the investment must be adequate - enough to contribute to a portfolio average of around 15% - sufficient to double its value every 5 years.  (REWARD).
(ii)  The potential gain should be at least 3x the potential loss.  (RISK)

4.  To complete these tasks, you have to have learned how to do the following:
(i)  Estimate future sales and earnings growth.
(ii)  Estimate future earnings.
(iii)  Analyze past PEs (Check the current PE with the average past PEs)
(iv)  Estimate future PEs.
(v)  Forecast the potential high and low prices.
(vi)  Calculate the potential return.
(vii)  Calculate the potential risk.
(viii)  Calculate a fair price.

5.  If you take each of these steps in 4(i) to 4(viii), cautiously and shun excesses, your actual results is likely to be as good or better than the forecast at least four out of the five times.

6.  And you will have a track record to rival any professional.

That's all folks!

Quality Persists

Once you have determined that a company does meet your quality standards, its status is not likely to change - at least for a while.

In fact, the only factor that could change your assessment is the data that is reported every three months, so you can be reasonably confident that your assessment will survive at east that long.

And there's an 80% chance it will last a good deal longer.

So it pays you to collect and maintain a "watch-list" of good companies and wait for them to hit an attractive price - just have them available should your portfolio management strategy call for selling or replacing one you already own.

To Buy or Not to Buy: Quality first, then Potential Return at an Acceptable Risk.

To buy or not to buy - the bottom line is the potential reward and the amount of risk that you must accept to achieve it.

Always assuming you have done your due diligence concerning the quality issues, look to see if the hypothetical total return is sufficient to warrant adding the stock to your portfolio.  If the stock appears to be capable of doubling its value in five years, it's probably a good buy.

If you have been cautious enough in your estimates of earnings growth and future PEs, and if the potential reward is at least 3x the risk of loss, you'll have no qualms about buying the stock.



Use Your Common Sense

Investing is far from a precise science.

What you lose in accuracy because you are building one estimate upon another, you gain by being conservative in your estimates.

If you are careful to take the more cautious choice at every opportunity, you are rarely going to be disappointed at the outcome.

A small difference - a 1% difference in the risk would translate into only a small difference in the share price - is not enough to warrant waiting for the price to be just right.

If the price is more than just a little too high for the value parameters to satisfy you, however, you'll want to complete your study and wait for the price to come down to a more reasonable figure.



Summary:

1.  Always the Quality criteria must be met first
2.  Then look at the Total Return - this must be >15% per year.
3.  Only buy when the Risk is acceptable, that is, the potential reward must be at least 3x the risk of loss.
4.  Don't squabble over pennies when you are buying.


REMEMBER:  Prices can fluctuate by as much as 50% on either side of their averages during the course of the year; so you might be pleasantly surprised when a price you thought beyond hope just happens to materialize one day.





Saturday 25 January 2014

When evaluating the price, look at the potential return and the risk you must take to get that return.

When it comes to evaluating the price of a stock, you're really interested in just 2 things:

1.  The potential return, and
2.  The risk you must take to get that return.

If the potential return is worth the risk, the price is right.

If it is not, you can simply wait until it is.

As volatile as the stock market is, most stocks will sell at a favourable price sometime during the year.

To estimate the potential return, you will have to come up with a reasonable forecast of how high the price might go.  Knowing the hypothetical potential high price, you can estimate the potential return.

To evaluate risk, you will need to conservatively estimate the stock's potential lowest price.  If your potential gain is at least three times as much as you risk losing, your stock is probably selling at a fair price.



For example:

Stock TUW

Potential high price = $20
Potential low price = $10
Market price = $12

Potential gain = $20 - $12 = $18
Potential loss = $ $12 - $10 = $2
Therefore, potential gain : potential loss = $8 : $2 = 4 : 1

As the potential gain is at least 3x as much as you risk losing, the stock is probably selling at a fair price.









Hopefully, you won't have to find out the hard way - QUALITY first, then PRICE. When in doubt, throw it out!

The most important task is in investing into a company is in assessing its quality.

Hopefully you won't have to find out the hard way that buying a good company for too high a price is still better than buying a poor company - even at what you may think is a bargain price.

No matter how low it may be, a company that doesn't meet the quality requirements will always be too expensive - at any price!

If you are not critical enough about quality, you can easily be seduced into believing that a stock is a bargain when you actually shouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole.

Here is a statement you may have to think about a little:  The worse a company performs, the better a value it will appear to be.   Why do you suppose that is?

If you ignore the poor operational performance and just look at the price, you'll be in the market for someone else's mistake!

Sure, you will be able to pick up the stock at bargain-basement prices - but for a good reason.

You will think you made out like a bandit when, in fact, whomever you bought the stock from will turn out to be the lucky one.

The most important point here is that you simply cannot afford to ignore the quality issues or treat them lightly.  

Unless the company completely satisfies your quality requirements - and I don't mean it's marginal or might have some problem - your evaluation of the price of the stock can be invalid and, in fact, hazardous to your financial health.

When in doubt, throw it out!

Friday 24 January 2014

CIMB’s private placement exercise draws mixed reactions from analysts

CIMB’s private placement exercise draws mixed reactions from analysts

by Sharon Kong, sharonkong@theborneopost.com.
Posted on January 16, 2014, Thursday

KUCHING: CIMB Group Holdings Bhd’s (CIMB) recent private placement exercise has garnered mixed reactions from various analysts, with adverse market movements the cause of this latest development.

According to RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHB Research), the capital-raising could possibly have been prompted by adverse market movements. This is due to CIMB having said in its statement to Bursa Malaysia that the sharp depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah had set back to its capital accumulation plan.
The research house further pointed out that the adverse direction that bond yields have seen in 2013 may have also prompted the fund-raising exercise.

“Based on its first nine months of 2013 (9M13) results, adverse forex and interest rate movements have shaved off RM1.5 billion in shareholders’ equity – exchange fluctuation reserve of RM693 millon and available for sale (AFS) revaluation reserve of RM817 million.

“By our estimates, this translates to RM1.1 billion in CET-1 capital, after taking into account the required regulatory adjustment of a 55 per cent haircut for AFS reserves,” RHB Research said.

With the issue of capital addressed, two things that RHB Research thinks investors will now seek further guidance on from management are the sustainable return on equity (ROE) level going forward, and whether the dividend reinvestment schem (DRS) will continue.

Looking ahead, for 2014, it thinks a 15 per cent ROE target may be possible. This will also be similar to Malayan Bank Bhd’s (Maybank) 2013 ROE target, post the RM3.66 billion capital raising exercise it did in 2012.

Also, now that CIMB has shored up its capital, it remains to be seen whether management will opt to keep in place the DRS, the research house added.

“The latter appears to be well received, achieving a take-up rate of 80.2 per cent for the recent second quarter of 2013 (2Q13) interim dividend.

“The flipside is that the DRS is slightly dilutive, with an estimated one per cent impact on financial year 2014 forecast (FY14F) earnings per share (EPS) and 40 basis points (bps) to FY14F ROE,” it noted.

According to analyst Cheah King Yoong of Alliance Research Sdn Bhd (Alliance Research), the capital raising exercise engaged by CIMB came as a surprise to them.

He similarly opined that they are not certain whether the group will continue with its dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) upon the completion of this private placement exercise.

“Should the research house assume that the group will be utilising the net proceeds raised to retire part of its borrowing and continuing with its DRP, its FY14-FY15 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts will be diluted by three to four per cent,” he noted.

In terms of earnings forecast for CIMB, Cheah highlighted that pending further clarifications by the management with regards to the utilisation of its net proceeds, and the continuity of its DRP, they made no changes to their earnings estimates for now.

“We will revise our earnings estimates for the group post our meeting with the management next week,” he added.


Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/01/16/cimbs-private-placement-exercise-draws-mixed-reactions-from-analysts/#ixzz2rEaYfgwL


Main points:  

1.  Adverse forex and interest rate movements have shaved off RM1.5 billion in shareholders' equity.
2.  This translates t RM1.1 billion in CET-1 capital.
3.  The capital raising exercise by CIMB came as a surprise.
4.  What will be the sustainable ROE going forward?
5.  Will the DRS (dividend reinvestment scheme) be kept in place?
6.   DRS is slightly dilutive, with an estimated 1% impact on financial year 2014 forecast (FY14F) EPS and 40 basis points (bps) to FY14F ROE.


Scenario analysis:

Assuming:
1.  No changes to the earnings estimates.
2.  CIMB utilising the net proceeds raised to retire part of its borrowing and continuing with its DRP.

It is forecasted that these will impact on CIMB's FY14-FY15 EPS, diluting it by 3 to 4%.

(Share price of CIMB closed at 6.80 per share on 23.1.2014.)

1 Year Chart
Chart forCIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD (1023.KL)


Long term Chart















Sunday 19 January 2014

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Sorted by DY)

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Sorted according to DY)

#Rank Company Price PE EY % DY %
66 Kulim 3.38 5 20.0 29.1
54 MBSB 2.17 6.8 14.7 13.3
48 AirAsia 2.37 3.5 28.6 10.1
56 BJToto 4.01 13.8 7.2 7
1 Maybank 9.91 13.6 7.4 6.6
77 SunReit 1.25 8.9 11.2 6.6
93 UOADev 1.87 7.6 13.2 6.4
83 Parkson 2.86 12.9 7.8 6.3
94 CMMT 1.4 9.9 10.1 6
52 Bstead 5.6 13.9 7.2 5.8
8 Maxis 7.13 28.9 3.5 5.6
85 Dlady 47.3 24.5 4.1 5.5
10 DiGi 4.85 31.3 3.2 5.4
72 PavReit 1.32 6.3 15.9 5.2
4 Axiata 6.8 22.7 4.4 5.1
76 Carlsbg 12.24 19.5 5.1 5.1
65 Magnum 3.15 13.3 7.5 5.1
89 Media 2.62 13.5 7.4 5
55 Utd Plant 26.18 15.9 6.3 4.8
46 LAFMSIA 8.41 20.5 4.9 4.4
24 BAT 63.88 22.9 4.4 4.3
62 GAB 15.9 22.1 4.5 4.3
22 TM 5.39 15.3 6.5 4.1
30 UMW 12.28 15.1 6.6 4.1
80 Bintulu Port 7.5 20.5 4.9 4
75 LPI 17.46 23 4.3 3.7
78 MSM 5.1 17.7 5.6 3.7
45 SPSetia 2.95 16.5 6.1 3.7
6 Sime 9.39 15.2 6.6 3.6
50 HapSeng 2.95 15.1 6.6 3.6
13 PetDag 30.4 36.1 2.8 3.5
44 AFG 4.8 13.6 7.4 3.5
51 Affin 4.26 10.1 9.9 3.5
14 IOICorp 4.58 14.9 6.7 3.4
67 Bursa 8.13 28.5 3.5 3.3
47 F&N 18.4 25.7 3.9 3.3
61 GasMsia 3.95 31.2 3.2 3.2
7 Pchem 6.84 15.5 6.5 3.2
16 HLBank 14.24 13.5 7.4 3.2
28 Nestle 67.96 31.5 3.2 3.1
86 Pos 5.57 19.7 5.1 3.1
100 Zhulian 4.93 19.4 5.2 3.1
26 FGV 4.53 15.9 6.3 3.1
5 CIMB 7.51 12.9 7.8 3.1
20 AMBank 7.29 13.4 7.5 3
53 MHB 3.61 23.9 4.2 2.8
70 IGB 2.72 21.8 4.6 2.8
79 Top Glove 5.73 18.1 5.5 2.8
39 Bkawan 19.6 16.8 6.0 2.8
21 RHBCap 7.97 10.1 9.9 2.8
82 Mah Sing 2.27 9.9 10.1 2.7
49 BIMB 4.38 19.5 5.1 2.6
35 Gamuda 4.61 18.2 5.5 2.6
2 PBBank 18.9 17.1 5.8 2.6
99 CMSB 6.78 16 6.3 2.5
3 Tenaga 11 13.3 7.5 2.3
27 HLFG 15.5 10.9 9.2 2.3
43 IJM 5.85 19.2 5.2 2.2
59 DRBHCOM 2.72 9.1 11.0 2.2
9 PetGas 23.6 33.2 3.0 2.1
18 KLK 24.12 28 3.6 2.1
71 Tchong 5.98 24.7 4.0 2
73 KPJ 3.87 24.7 4.0 2
90 IJMPlnt 3.48 23.3 4.3 2
57 Harta 7.23 22.5 4.4 2
17 GENM 4.38 17.7 5.6 2
74 IJMLand 2.52 16.4 6.1 2
64 Sunway 2.75 7.7 13.0 1.9
84 Dayang 5.66 30.5 3.3 1.8
97 BJCorp 0.56 29.6 3.4 1.8
63 Aeon 13.64 22.5 4.4 1.8
98 WCT 2.14 5.5 18.2 1.8
25 YTL 1.6 12.4 8.1 1.6
37 MMCCorp 2.85 9.4 10.6 1.6
87 Shang 6.78 44.3 2.3 1.5
96 Kseng 6.73 28.7 3.5 1.5
69 IGBReit 1.2 26.6 3.8 1.5
33 Airport 8.8 26.5 3.8 1.5
92 Kossan 4.1 25.1 4.0 1.4
23 PPB 15.92 22.4 4.5 1.3
36 UEMS 2.32 22.4 4.5 1.3
29 Astro 2.98 13.4 7.5 1.3
68 BJLand 0.82 124.2 0.8 1.2
81 QL 4.1 25.9 3.9 1.1
42 GENP 10.98 25.5 3.9 1.1
41 Dialog 3.4 42.1 2.4 1
60 Orient 8.39 22.1 4.5 1
91 TSH 2.92 31.4 3.2 0.9
88 SOP 6.65 21.5 4.7 0.9
11 Genting 10.08 9.3 10.8 0.8
32 Armada 4.08 31 3.2 0.7
31 YTLPowr 1.85 12.5 8.0 0.5
15 SKPetro 4.57 43.6 2.3 0
12 IHH 3.91 34.1 2.9 0
95 HLCap 10 26.1 3.8 0
19 MISC 5.51 0 0.0 0
34 KLCC 5.94 0 0.0 0
38 WPRTS 2.53 0 0.0 0
40 UMWOG 3.91 0 0.0 0
58 MAS 0.32 0 0.0 0

# Rank is based on market capitalization

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Market P/E is 17.1 and DY is 3.2%)

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Sorted by P/E)

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Sorted according to P/E)


Rank Company Price PE DY
68 BJLand 0.82 124.2 1.2
87 Shang 6.78 44.3 1.5
15 SKPetro 4.57 43.6 0
41 Dialog 3.4 42.1 1
13 PetDag 30.4 36.1 3.5
12 IHH 3.91 34.1 0
9 PetGas 23.6 33.2 2.1
28 Nestle 67.96 31.5 3.1
91 TSH 2.92 31.4 0.9
10 DiGi 4.85 31.3 5.4
61 GasMsia 3.95 31.2 3.2
32 Armada 4.08 31 0.7
84 Dayang 5.66 30.5 1.8
97 BJCorp 0.56 29.6 1.8
8 Maxis 7.13 28.9 5.6
96 Kseng 6.73 28.7 1.5
67 Bursa 8.13 28.5 3.3
18 KLK 24.12 28 2.1
69 IGBReit 1.2 26.6 1.5
33 Airport 8.8 26.5 1.5
95 HLCap 10 26.1 0
81 QL 4.1 25.9 1.1
47 F&N 18.4 25.7 3.3
42 GENP 10.98 25.5 1.1
92 Kossan 4.1 25.1 1.4
71 Tchong 5.98 24.7 2
73 KPJ 3.87 24.7 2
85 Dlady 47.3 24.5 5.5
53 MHB 3.61 23.9 2.8
90 IJMPlnt 3.48 23.3 2
75 LPI 17.46 23 3.7
24 BAT 63.88 22.9 4.3
4 Axiata 6.8 22.7 5.1
57 Harta 7.23 22.5 2
63 Aeon 13.64 22.5 1.8
23 PPB 15.92 22.4 1.3
36 UEMS 2.32 22.4 1.3
60 Orient 8.39 22.1 1
62 GAB 15.9 22.1 4.3
70 IGB 2.72 21.8 2.8
88 SOP 6.65 21.5 0.9
46 LAFMSIA 8.41 20.5 4.4
80 Bintulu Port 7.5 20.5 4
86 Pos 5.57 19.7 3.1
49 BIMB 4.38 19.5 2.6
76 Carlsbg 12.24 19.5 5.1
100 Zhulian 4.93 19.4 3.1
43 IJM 5.85 19.2 2.2
35 Gamuda 4.61 18.2 2.6
79 Top Glove 5.73 18.1 2.8
17 GENM 4.38 17.7 2
78 MSM 5.1 17.7 3.7
2 PBBank 18.9 17.1 2.6
39 Bkawan 19.6 16.8 2.8
45 SPSetia 2.95 16.5 3.7
74 IJMLand 2.52 16.4 2
99 CMSB 6.78 16 2.5
26 FGV 4.53 15.9 3.1
55 Utd Plant 26.18 15.9 4.8
7 Pchem 6.84 15.5 3.2
22 TM 5.39 15.3 4.1
6 Sime 9.39 15.2 3.6
30 UMW 12.28 15.1 4.1
50 HapSeng 2.95 15.1 3.6
14 IOICorp 4.58 14.9 3.4
52 Bstead 5.6 13.9 5.8
56 BJToto 4.01 13.8 7
1 Maybank 9.91 13.6 6.6
44 AFG 4.8 13.6 3.5
16 HLBank 14.24 13.5 3.2
89 Media 2.62 13.5 5
20 AMBank 7.29 13.4 3
29 Astro 2.98 13.4 1.3
3 Tenaga 11 13.3 2.3
65 Magnum 3.15 13.3 5.1
5 CIMB 7.51 12.9 3.1
83 Parkson 2.86 12.9 6.3
31 YTLPowr 1.85 12.5 0.5
25 YTL 1.6 12.4 1.6
27 HLFG 15.5 10.9 2.3
21 RHBCap 7.97 10.1 2.8
51 Affin 4.26 10.1 3.5
82 Mah Sing 2.27 9.9 2.7
94 CMMT 1.4 9.9 6
37 MMCCorp 2.85 9.4 1.6
11 Genting 10.08 9.3 0.8
59 DRBHCOM 2.72 9.1 2.2
77 SunReit 1.25 8.9 6.6
64 Sunway 2.75 7.7 1.9
93 UOADev 1.87 7.6 6.4
54 MBSB 2.17 6.8 13.3
72 PavReit 1.32 6.3 5.2
98 WCT 2.14 5.5 1.8
66 Kulim 3.38 5 29.1
48 AirAsia 2.37 3.5 10.1
19 MISC 5.51 0 0
34 KLCC 5.94 0 0
38 WPRTS 2.53 0 0
40 UMWOG 3.91 0 0
58 MAS 0.32 0 0
# Rank is based on market capitalization

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Market P/E is 17.1 and DY is 3.2%)