tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28847688444123470682024-03-16T09:12:10.231+08:00myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS)
****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods****
The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.comBlogger10347125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-91722526570235464762024-03-15T20:57:00.005+08:002024-03-15T20:57:31.486+08:00Plantation stocks at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh7WC717z-hX6ZmUGAJN24PAQQzpYg3RZv0fjzp_xpEfNTzvxcHbnzNXK2sL_ouqhVUpcvDFd2jJO78CY0cccNnvrGnK_m0xLNZtzvfuBKjYE_-ymffFWyTwbKyLe8nL0s488mOQN6LZ7vqStk7c91PBuzSGo-Z0JruKJZ-VQ2bUFaGma97OravQt4MG7s" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2355" data-original-width="1330" height="914" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh7WC717z-hX6ZmUGAJN24PAQQzpYg3RZv0fjzp_xpEfNTzvxcHbnzNXK2sL_ouqhVUpcvDFd2jJO78CY0cccNnvrGnK_m0xLNZtzvfuBKjYE_-ymffFWyTwbKyLe8nL0s488mOQN6LZ7vqStk7c91PBuzSGo-Z0JruKJZ-VQ2bUFaGma97OravQt4MG7s=w518-h914" width="518" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-39935920177913855702024-03-15T15:53:00.005+08:002024-03-15T15:53:52.790+08:00RIMBUNAN SAWIT at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZMJ4DWBm2EZOKSo1dJM3xYaJbikEBW9YrK-QIgEUXnX0xlsxIsFTMKImgRa6mNmwYdndZeaRWBlqCFJvp6eU89qAVweVlOrY_Jk0K3gXCcwZNSX24K17JQvNg0ckrSCYnI8rD7-mM_env6iXrBei-nSSStTs5hvvWVjOBUjr5dAhGUlXbJQSzBsbHtFo" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3104" data-original-width="1083" height="1509" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZMJ4DWBm2EZOKSo1dJM3xYaJbikEBW9YrK-QIgEUXnX0xlsxIsFTMKImgRa6mNmwYdndZeaRWBlqCFJvp6eU89qAVweVlOrY_Jk0K3gXCcwZNSX24K17JQvNg0ckrSCYnI8rD7-mM_env6iXrBei-nSSStTs5hvvWVjOBUjr5dAhGUlXbJQSzBsbHtFo=w528-h1509" width="528" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-18004031815770525262024-03-14T22:19:00.003+08:002024-03-14T22:21:14.951+08:00 Categorising stocks (Peter Lynch)<div id="post-div-904652100" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px;"><div class="card px-3" style="background-clip: border-box; border-radius: 0.25rem; border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.125); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding-left: 1rem; padding-right: 1rem; position: relative;"><div class="row border-bottom-light main-comment-row" style="--bs-gutter-x: 1.5rem; --bs-gutter-y: 0; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; margin-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ -2); margin-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ -2); margin-top: calc(var(--bs-gutter-y) * -1);"><div class="col-12 p-0" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex: 0 0 auto; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; width: 910.979px;"><div class="row" style="--bs-gutter-x: 1.5rem; --bs-gutter-y: 0; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; margin: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><div class="col py-1 comment-info-div" data-commentid="9244583" data-forumtitle="My Golden Rule of Investing" data-pageid="904652100" data-postuserid="3iii" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex: 1 0 0%; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0.25rem; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-top: 0.25rem; width: 683.236px;"><p class="comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">When you buy into stocks you <b>need to understand why you are buying</b>. In doing this, it helps to categorise the company in <u>determining what sort of returns</u> you can expect. Catergorising also enforces some discipline into your investment process and <u>aids effective portfolio construction. </u></p><p class="comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">Peter Lynch uses the six categories below;-<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />• <b>Sluggards (Slow growers) </b>– Usually large companies in mature industries with earnings growth below or around GDP growth. Such companies are usually held for dividend rather than significant price appreciation.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />• <b>Stalwarts (Medium growth) </b>- High quality companies such as Coca-Cola, P&G and Colgate that can still churn out high single digit/low teens growth. Earnings patterns are not cyclical meaning that these stocks will protect you recession.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />• <b>Fast growers </b>– Companies whose earnings are growing at 20%+ and have plenty of runway to attack e.g. think Google, Apple in their early days. It doesn’t have to be a company as “sexy” as those mentioned.</p><p class="comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />• <b>Cyclicals</b> – Companies whose fortunes are closely linked to the economic cycle e.g. automobiles, financials, airlines.</p><p class="comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />• <b>Turn-arounds </b>– Companies coming out of a depressed phase as a result of change in management, strategy or corporate restructuring. Successful turnarounds can deliver stunning returns.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />• <b>Asset plays</b> – Firm has hidden assets which are undervalued or not recognized at all on the balance sheet or under appreciated by the market e.g. cash, land, property, holdings in other company.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><u>Comment:</u><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />General observations about different types of stocks.</p><p class="comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Wall Street does not look kindly on fast growers that run out of stamina and turn into slow growers and when that happens the stock is <u>beaten down </u>accordingly.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-27970169721200379972024-03-14T21:58:00.004+08:002024-03-14T22:03:58.965+08:00Fast Growers<div style="text-align: left;"><b> FAST GROWERS</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /><u>Traits</u></b><br />• Small, aggressive new companies. Growing<br />at 20-25%.<br />• Land of the 10-40x, even 200x. 1-2 such<br />companies can make a career.<br />• Lousy Industry<br />o May not belong to fast growing industry.<br />Can expand in the room in a slow growth<br />industry by taking market share.<br />o Depressed industries are likely places to<br />find potential bargains. If business<br />improves from lousy to mediocre, you are<br />rewarded, rewarded again when mediocre<br />turns to good, and good to excellent.<br />o Moderately fast growers (20-25%) in slow<br />growth industries are ideal investments.<br />Look for companies with niches that can<br />capture market share without price<br />competition. In business, competition is<br />never as healthy as total domination.<br />o Growth ≠ Expansion, leading people to<br />overlook great companies like Phillip<br />Morris. Industry wide cigarette<br />consumption may decline, but company<br />can increase earnings by cost cuts and<br />price increases. Earnings growth is the<br />only growth that really counts. If costs<br />rise 4%, but prices rise 6%, and profit<br />margin is 10%, then extra 2% price rise<br />= 20% increase in earnings.<br />o Greatest companies in lousy industries<br />share certain characteristics:<br />i) low cost operators / penny pinchers<br />in the executive suite<br />ii) avoid leverage<br />iii) reject corporate hierarchies<br />iv) workers are well paid and have a<br />stake in the company’s future<br />v) they find niches, parts of the market<br />that bigger companies overlook. Zero<br />Growth Industry = Zero Competition.<br />• Hot Industry<br />o Hot Stocks + Hot Industry = Greater<br />Competition. Companies can thrive only<br />due to niche/moat/patents etc.<br />o Growth ≠ Expansion. In low growth<br />industries, companies expand by<br />capturing market share, cutting costs<br />and raising prices. When an industry<br />gets too popular, nobody makes money<br />there anymore.<br />• Life Phases of a Fast Grower: each may last<br />several years. Keep checking earnings,<br />growth, stores to check aura of prosperity.<br />Ask, what will keep earnings going?<br />i) Startup phase: companies work out<br />kinks in the basic business. Riskiest<br />phase for the investor because success is<br />not yet established.<br />ii) Rapid Expansion: company enters new<br />markets. Safest phase for investor where<br />most amount of money is made, because<br />growth is merely an act of duplication<br />across markets. Company reinvests all<br />FCF into expansion. No dividends help<br />faster expansion. IPO helps in expanding<br />without bank debt / leverage.<br />iii) Maturity / Saturation: company faces the<br />fact that there’s no easy way to continue<br />expansion. Most problematic phase<br />because company runs into its own<br />limitations. Other ways must be found to<br />increase earnings, possibly only, via<br />luring customers away from competitors.<br />If M&A / diworseification follows, then<br />you know management is confused.<br />• Find out growth plans and check if plan is<br />working?<br />i) Cost cuts – the proof is in decrease of<br />selling and administrative costs.<br />ii) Raise prices<br />iii) Entry into new markets<br />iv) Sell more volume in existing markets<br />v) Exit loss making operations<br />• What continues to triumph, vs, flop, is:<br />i) Capable management<br />ii) Adequate financing<br />iii) Methodical approach to expansion – slow<br />but steady wins this kind of race.<br />o When a company tries to open >100<br />stores/year, it’s likely to run into<br />problems. In its rush to glory, it can<br />pick the wrong sites or managers, pay<br />too much for real estate, and, fail to<br />properly train employees. It is easier<br />to add 35-40 stores / year.<br />• Re-classification away from Fast Grower<br />o A large fast growth company faces<br />devaluation risk, since growth may slow<br />down as it runs out of space for further<br />expansion.<br />o Inability to maintain double digit growth<br />may see a re-classification into a Slow<br />Grower, Cyclical or Stalwart. High fliers<br />of one decade are groundhogs of the next.<br />o Fast Growers like hotels/retail having<br />prime real estate turn into Asset Plays.<br />o There’s high risk, especially in younger<br />companies that are overzealous and<br />underfunded. The headache of<br />underfinancing may lead to bankruptcy.<br />o Fast Grower’s that can’t stand prosperity,<br />diworseify, fall out of favour, and, turn<br />into Turnaround candidates.<br />o Every Fast Grower turns into a Slow<br />Grower, fooling many people. People have<br />a tendency to think that things won’t<br />change, but eventually they do,<br />o Very few companies switch from being a<br />Slow Grower to a Fast Grower.<br />o Companies may fall into 2 categories at<br />the same time, or, pass through all<br />categories over time (Disney).<br />• During 1949-1995, an investment in the 50<br />growth stocks on Safian’s Growth Index<br />returned 230x, while the Safian Cyclical<br />Index only returned 19x.<br />• Growth companies were the star performers<br />during and after 2 corrections (1981-82 and<br />1987), and they held their own in the 1990<br />Saddam selloff. The only time you wished<br />you didn’t own them was 197374, when<br />growth stocks were grossly overpriced.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Buying and Holding Tips</u></b><br />• Fast Grower => 2x GNP growth rate.<br />Sustaining 30% growth rate is very difficult,<br />even for 3 years. 20-25% growth rate is more<br />sustainable (investing sweet spot).<br />• Best place to find a 10x stock is close to<br />home – if not the backyard, then in the<br />kitchen, mall, workplace etc. You’ll find a<br />likely prospect ~2/3 times a year. The<br />person with the edge is always in a position<br />to outguess the person without an edge.<br />• Long shots almost never pay off. Better to<br />miss the 1st stock move (during phase I), or<br />even the late stage of phase I, when the<br />company’s only reached 5-10% of market<br />saturation, and wait to see if it’s plans are<br />working. If you wait, you may never need to<br />buy, since failure would’ve become visible.<br />• Does the idea work elsewhere? Must prove<br />that cloning works in other markets, and<br />show its ability to survive early mistakes,<br />limited capital, find required skilled labour.<br />• The most fascinating part of long term, Fast<br />Growers is how much time you have to catch<br />them. Even a decade later and with stock<br />already up 20x, it’s not too late to capitalize<br />on an idea that has still not run its course.<br />• Emerging growth stocks are much more<br />volatile than larger companies, dropping and<br />soaring like sparrow hawks around the<br />stable flight of buzzards. After small caps<br />have taken one of these extended dives, they<br />eventually catch upto the buzzards.<br />• Small Company Index PE / S&P 500 PE:<br />Since small companies are expected to grow<br />faster than larger ones, they’re expected to<br />sell at higher PE’s, theoretically. In practice,<br />this isn’t always the case. During periods<br />when Emerging Growth is unpopular with<br />investors, these small caps get so cheap that<br />their PE = S&P 500 PE. When wildly popular<br />and bid up to unreasonably high levels, it is<br />= 2x S&P 500 PE.<br />• In such cases, small caps may get clobbered<br />for several years afterward. Best time to buy<br />is when Small PE / Large PE < 1.2x. To reap<br />the reward from this strategy, you’ve to be<br />patient. The rallies in small cap stocks can<br />take a couple of years to gather storm and<br />then several more years to develop.<br />• A similar pattern applies to the Growth vs<br />Value pots. Be patient. Watched stock never<br />boils. When in doubt, tune in later.<br />• Look for a good balance sheet and large<br />profits. Trick is in figuring out when the<br />growth stops and how much to pay for it?<br />• Recent price run-ups shouldn’t matter, so<br />long as PEG still makes it attractive.<br />• If PEG =1x, then 20% growth @ 20x PE is ><br />10% growth @ 10x PE. Higher compounded<br />earnings will compensate even for PE<br />multiple shrinkage.<br />• High PE leaves little room for error. Best way<br />to handle a situation where you love the<br />company but not the price (great company,<br />high growth, but high PE), is to make a<br />small commitment and then increase it in<br />the next selloff. One can never predict how<br />far the price may fall. Even if you buy after a<br />setback, be prepared for further declines<br />when you might consider buying even more<br />shares. If the story is still good, after review,<br />then you’re happy that the price fell.<br />• So, the important issue is why has the stock<br />fallen so much? If the long term story is still<br />intact and the growth will continue for a<br />long time, then buy more. If you can place<br />the company in its attractive, mid-life phase,<br />ex. 2nd decade of 30 years of growth, then<br />you shouldn’t mind paying 20x PE for a 20-<br />25% growth rate, especially if market PE =<br />18-20x with an 8-10% growth rate.<br />• If you sell at 2x, you won’t get 10x. As long<br />as same store sales are rising, company isn’t<br />crippled with excess debt, and is following<br />its stated expansion plans, stick around. If<br />the original story stays intact, you’ll be<br />amazed at the results in several years.<br />• Trick is to not lose a potential 10x, but know<br />that, if earnings shrink, then so will the PE<br />that’s been bid up high – double whammy.<br />• It’s harder to stick with a winning stock after<br />price increases, vs, continuing to believe in a<br />company after price falls. If you’re in danger<br />of being faked out into selling, revisit the<br />reasons / story, as to why you bought it in<br />the first place. There are 2 ways investors<br />can fake themselves out of the big returns<br />that come from great growth companies.<br />i) Waiting to buy the stock when it looks<br />cheap: Throughout its 27-year rise from<br />a split-adjusted 1.6 cents to $23, WalMart </div><div style="text-align: left;">never looked cheap compared to<br />the market. Its PE rarely dropped <20x,<br />but earnings were growing at 25-30%<br />Any business that keeps up a 20-25%<br />growth rate for 20 years rewards its<br />owners with a massive return even if the<br />overall market is lower after 20 years.<br />ii) Underestimating how long a great<br />growth company can keep up the pace.<br />These "nowhere to grow" theories come<br />up often & should be viewed sceptically.<br />o Don't believe them until you check<br />for yourself. Look carefully at where<br />the company does business and at<br />how much growing room is left.<br />Whether or not it has growing room<br />may have nothing to do with its age.<br />o Wal-Mart IPO’d in 1970. By 1980 =<br />stock 20x, with 7x number of stores.<br />Was it time to sell, not be greedy, &<br />put money elsewhere? Stocks don’t<br />care who owns it and questions of<br />greed are best resolved in church,<br />not in brokerage accounts.<br />o The important issue to analyze was<br />not whether the Wal-Mart stock<br />would punish its holders, but<br />whether the company had saturated<br />the market. The answer was No.<br />Wal-Mart’s reach was only 15% of<br />USA. Over the next 11 years, the<br />stock went up another 50x.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Sell When</u></b><br />• Hold as long as earnings are growing,<br />expansion continues and no impediments<br />arise. Check the story every few months as if<br />you’re hearing it for the very first time.<br />• If a Fast Grower rises 50% and the story<br />starts sounding dubious, sell and rotate into<br />another, where the current price is <= your<br />purchase price, but the story sounds better.<br />• Main thing to watch is the end of phase II of<br />rapid expansion. Company has no new<br />stores, old stores are shabby, and the stock<br />is out of fashion.<br />• Wall Street covers the stock widely,<br />institutions hold 60%, and 3 national<br />magazines fawn over the CEO.<br />• Large companies with 50x PE!? Even at 40x,<br />and with wide, saturated presence, where<br />will the large company grow?<br />• Last quarter same-store sales are down 3%,<br />new store sales are disappointing, and the<br />company is telling positive stories, vs,<br />showing positive results.<br />• Top executives / employees leave to join a<br />rival.<br />• PE = 30x, but next 2 years’ growth rate =<br />15%. Therefore, PEG = 2x (very negative)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Examples</u></b><br />• Annheuser Busch, Marriott, Taco Bell,<br />Walmart, Gap, AMD, Texas Instruments,<br />Holiday Inn, carpets, plastics, retail,<br />calculators, disk drives, health maintenance,<br />computers, restaurants<br />• While it’s possible to make 2-5x in Cyclicals<br />and Undervalued situations (if all goes well),<br />payoffs in Fast Growers like restaurants and<br />retailers are bigger. Restaurants/retailers<br />can expand across the country and keep up<br />the growth rate at 20% for 10-15 years.<br />• Not only do they grow as fast as high tech<br />companies, but unlike an electronics or shoe<br />company, restaurants are protected from<br />competition. Competition is slower to arrive<br />and you can see it coming. A restaurant<br />chain takes a long time to work its way<br />across the country and no foreign company<br />can service local customers.<br />• Taste homogeneity helps scale in food,<br />drinks, entertainment, makeup, fashion etc.<br />Popularity in 1 mall = popularity in another.<br />Certain brands prosper at else’s expense.<br />• Ways to increase earnings (restaurants):<br />i) Add more locations<br />ii) Improve existing operations<br />iii) High turnover with low priced meals<br />iv) High priced meals with lower turnover<br />v) High OPM because of food made with<br />cheaper ingredients, or, due to low<br />operating costs<br />• To break even, a restaurants’ sales must =<br />Capital Employed. Restaurant group as a<br />whole may only grow slowly at 4%, but as<br />long as Americans eat >50% of their meals<br />out of home, there’ll be new 20x stocks.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>People Examples</u></b><br />• Higher failure rate than Stalwarts, but if and<br />when one succeeds, it may boost income 10-<br />20-100x.<br />• Actors, real estate developers, musicians,<br />small businessmen, athletes, criminals</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>PE Ratio</u></b><br />• Highest for Fast Growers at 14-20x.<br />Company with a High PE must have<br />incredible growth (for next 2 years) to justify<br />its price. It’s a miracle for even a small<br />company to justify a 50x PE, as may so<br />happen during a bull market.<br />• 1 year forward PE of 40x = dangerously high<br />and in most cases extravagant. Even fastest<br />growing companies can rarely achieve 25%<br />growth, and 40% is a rarity. Such frenetic<br />growth isn’t sustainable for long & growing<br />too fast tends to lead to self destruction.<br />• 40x PE @ 30% growth isn’t attractive, but<br />not bad if S&P 500 = 23x PE & Coke PEG =<br />2x (PE = 30x @ 15% growth).<br />• Unlike Cyclical where the PE contracts near<br />the end of the cycle, Fast grower’s PE gets<br />bigger and may reach absurd, illogical levels.<br />• Earnings are not constant and PE of 40x vs<br />3x shows investor willingness to gamble on<br />higher earnings, vs, scepticism about the<br />cheaply priced company’s future.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /><u>PEG</u></b><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgWwuS8Ce6tXeMHq0JZ4z3oB_LqHn5Xq0LcUyqZjU0RtI82MtveScmXpPcN0sDLLzSOj684-k-qeoT6SSTVx0r0fgPMBC7mheds_FO1EZHF69JkDLlH4-T4J-NzMnmITKcyN3LFeEcKTHHGpEkSOitOCvtp_LL7oacazjWBdoxKMJmpSaXM21hC61a3Upg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="221" data-original-width="397" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgWwuS8Ce6tXeMHq0JZ4z3oB_LqHn5Xq0LcUyqZjU0RtI82MtveScmXpPcN0sDLLzSOj684-k-qeoT6SSTVx0r0fgPMBC7mheds_FO1EZHF69JkDLlH4-T4J-NzMnmITKcyN3LFeEcKTHHGpEkSOitOCvtp_LL7oacazjWBdoxKMJmpSaXM21hC61a3Upg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u>2 Minute Drill</u></b><br />• Where and how can the company continue<br />to grow fast?<br />• La Quinta Motels started in Texas. Company<br />successfully duplicated its formula in<br />Arkansas & Louisiana. Last year it added<br />28% more units. Earnings have increased<br />every quarter. Plans rapid future expansion<br />& debt isn’t excessive. Motels are low growth<br />industry and very competitive but La Quinta<br />has found something of a niche. Long way to<br />go before it saturates the market.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Checklist</u></b><br />• Percentage of sales – is a new fast growing<br />product a large % of sales?<br />• Recent growth rate – favour 20-25% growth<br />rates. Be wary if growth is > 25%. Hot<br />industries show growth >50%.<br />• Proof – has company duplicated its success<br />in >1 city, for planned expansion to work?<br />• Runway – does it still have room to grow?<br />• PE – is it high or low, vs, growth rate?<br />• Δ Growth rate – is expansion speeding up or<br />slowing down? For companies doing sales<br />via large, single deals, vs, selling high<br />volume & low ticket items, growth slowdown<br />can be devastating because doing more<br />volume at bigger ticket sizes is difficult.<br />When growth slows, stock drops<br />dramatically.<br />• Institutional ownership / Analyst coverage –<br />no presence is a positive, as growth<br />expectations are still not captured in the<br />Price or PE.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Portfolio Allocation %</u></b><br />• 30-40% Allocation in Magellan. Magellan’s<br />allocation to Fast Growers was never >50%.<br />• 40% in Personal investor’s 10 stock portfolio<br />• If looking for 10x stocks, likelihood increases<br />as you hold more stocks. Among several, the<br />one that actually goes the farthest maybe a<br />surprise. The story may start at a certain<br />point, with specific expectations, and get<br />progressively better. There’s no way to<br />anticipate pleasant surprises.<br />• More stocks provide greater flexibility for<br />fund rotation. If something happens to a<br />secondary company, it may get promoted to<br />being a primary selection.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Risk/Reward</u></b><br />• High Risk – High Gain. Higher potential<br />upside = Greater potential downside.<br />• +10x / (-100%)<br />• Major bankruptcy risk for small fast grower’s<br />via underfinanced, overzealous expansion<br />• Major rapid devaluation risk for large fast<br />growers once growth falters, because there’s<br />no room left for future expansion</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The Peter Lynch Playbook<br />Twitter@mjbaldbard 10 mayur.jain1@gmail.com</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-36454059788044101962024-03-14T21:11:00.007+08:002024-03-14T21:15:07.162+08:00Stalwarts<div style="text-align: left;"><b>STALWARTS</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Traits</u></b><br />• Growth rate = 2x GNP growth rate<br />• Growth Rates: Slow Growers (1x GNP) <<br />Stalwarts (2x GNP) < Fast Growers (20-25%)<br />• Fairly large sized companies<br />• You can profit, based on time and price of<br />purchase. Long term return will be = bonds<br />• Good performers, but not stars – 50% return<br />in 2 years is a delightful result. Sell more<br />readily than Fast Growers.<br />• Good performers in good markets. Take 30-<br />50% returns, and then rotate money into<br />another Stalwart.<br />• Operating performance of such defensives<br />helps them survive recessions. No down<br />quarter for 20-30 years.<br />• Offer good protection in hard times. Won’t go<br />bankrupt, soon enough they’ll be<br />reassessed, and their value will be restored.<br />• Don’t hold after 2x, hoping for 10x. Can hold<br />for 20 years only if you bought a “Great”<br />company at a “Good” price.<br />• Can hardly go wrong by making a full<br />portfolio of companies that have raised<br />dividends for 10-20 years in a row.<br />• Hidden assets like brands & patents grow<br />larger, while the company punishes P&L<br />EPS via amortization, R&D, branding etc.<br />EPS will jump when these expenses stop, or,<br />the new product hits the market.<br />o Due to these hidden assets and low<br />maintenance capex, FCF > EPS.<br />o Possible to cut costs, raise prices and<br />also capture market share in slow growth<br />markets.<br />o If you can find a company that can raise<br />prices without losing customers, you’ve<br />found a terrific investment.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Examples</u></b><br />• Pharma, Tobacco, FMCG, Alcohol</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>People Examples</u></b><br />• Command good salaries and get predictable<br />raises – mid level employees</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>PE Ratio</u></b><br />• Average = 10-14x.<br />• PEG <0.5-1x is fine, but 2x is expensive.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>2 Minute Drill</u></b><br />• Key issues are PE, recent price run-ups, and<br />what, if anything is happening to accentuate<br />growth rate?<br />• Coke is selling at the low end of its PE range.<br />Stock hasn’t gone anywhere for 2 years, even<br />though the company has improved in many<br />ways. Sold 50% of Columbia Pictures. Diet<br />drinks have dramatically sped up growth<br />rate. Foreign sales are excellent. Has better<br />control over sales & distribution after buying<br />out many independent, regional distributors.<br />Thus, it may do better than people think.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Checklist</u></b><br />• Price = key issue, since these are big<br />companies that aren’t likely to go out of<br />business<br />• Diworseification – capital misallocation may<br />reduce future earnings. Board of Directors’<br />is better off returning cash to shareholders.<br />• Long Term Growth Rate – has company kept<br />up with growth rate momentum in recent<br />years? Is it slowing/speeding?<br />• Long Term Holding – how did it fare during<br />previous recessions / market correction?</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Portfolio Allocation %</u></b><br />• 10-20% Allocation, in order to moderate<br />risks in portfolio full of Fast Growers and<br />Turnarounds.<br />• Average 20% Allocation in a personal<br />investor’s 10 stock portfolio.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Risk/Reward</u></b><br />• Low Risk – Moderate Gain.<br />• 2 year hold may give 50% upside vs 20%<br />downside.<br />• 6 rotations of 25-30% CAGR Stalwarts = 4-<br />5x, or 1 big winner.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><u><b>Sell When</b></u><br />• Stalwarts with heavy institutional ownership<br />and lots of Wall Street coverage, that have<br />outperformed the market and are overpriced,<br />are due for a rest or decline.<br />• 10x not possible. If P>E, or, PE>Normal, sell<br />and rotate. If Price gets ahead, but the story<br />is still the same, sell and rotate.<br />• New products of last 2 years have mixed<br />results & new testing products are >1 year<br />from market launch<br />• PE = 15x, vs similar quality company from<br />same industry at 11-12x PE<br />• No Executive/CXO/Director has bought<br />shares in last 1 year<br />• Large division (>25% of sales) is vulnerable<br />to an ongoing economic slump (housing, oil)<br />• Growth rate is slowing down and though<br />earnings have been maintained via cost<br />cuts, there’s no further room left.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-44434622608488954932024-03-14T17:50:00.005+08:002024-03-14T21:16:05.835+08:00Slow Growers<div style="text-align: left;"><b>SLOW GROWERS</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /></b><b><u>Traits<br /></u></b>• Usually large and aging companies, whose<br />Growth rate = GNP Growth rate<br />• When industries slow down, most companies<br />lose momentum as well<br />• Easy to spot using stock charts<br />• Pay large and regular dividends<br />• Bladder theory of corporate finance: the<br />more cash that builds up in the treasury,<br />the greater the pressure to piss it away.<br />Companies that don’t pay dividends, have a<br />history of diworseification.<br />• Stocks that pay dividends are favoured vs<br />stocks that don’t. Presence of dividend<br />creates a floor price, keeping a stock from<br />falling away during market crashes. If<br />investors are certain that the high dividend<br />yield will hold up, then they’ll buy for the<br />dividend. This is one reason to buy Slow<br />Growers and Stalwarts, since people flock to<br />blue chips during panic.<br />• If a Slow Grower stops dividend, you’re<br />stuck with a sluggish company with little<br />going for it.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Examples<br /></u></b>• GE, Alcoa, Utilities, Dow Chemical</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>People Examples<br /></u></b>• Secure jobs + Low salary + Modest raises =<br />Librarians, Teachers, Policemen</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>PE Ratio<br /></u></b>• Lowest levels, per PEG. Utilities = 7-9x<br />• Bargain hunting doesn’t make sense without<br />growth or other catalyst<br />• During bull market optimism, PE may<br />expand to Fast Growers’ PE of 14-20x<br />• Therefore, the only meaningful source of<br />return = PE re-rating</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>2 Minute Drill<br /></u></b>• Reasons for interest?<br />• What must happen for the company to<br />succeed?<br />• Pitfalls that stand in the path?<br />• Dividend Play = “For the past 10 years the<br />company has increased earnings, offers an<br />attractive dividend yield, it’s never reduced/<br />suspended dividend, & has in fact raised it<br />during good and bad times, including the<br />last 3 recessions. As a phone utility, new<br />cellular division may aid growth.”</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Checklist<br /></u></b>• Dividends: Check if always paid and raised.<br />• Low dividend payout ratio creates cushion,<br />higher % is riskier.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Portfolio Allocation %<br /></u></b>• 0% - NO Allocation, because without growth,<br />the earnings & price aren’t going to move.<br /><b><u>Risk/Reward<br /></u></b>• Low risk-Low gain, because Slow Growers<br />aren’t expected to do much and are priced<br />accordingly.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Sell When<br /></u></b>• After 30-50% rise<br />• When fundamentals deteriorate, even if price<br />has fallen:<br />o Lost market share for 2 Quarters and<br />hires new advertising agency<br />o No new products/R&D, indicating that<br />the company is resting on its laurels<br />o Diworseification (>2 recent unrelated<br />M&A’s), excess leverage leaves no room<br />for buybacks/dividend increase<br />o Dividend yield isn’t high enough, even at<br />a lower price.<br /></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">The Peter Lynch Playbook</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Twitter@mjbaldbard 2 mayur.jain1@gmail.com</p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-78988351040143173382024-03-14T17:18:00.004+08:002024-03-14T21:21:47.709+08:00Turnarounds<div style="text-align: left;"><b>TURNAROUNDS</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /></b><b><u>Traits<br /></u></b>• No growth, potential fatalities – a poorly<br />managed company is a candidate for trouble<br />• Make up lost ground very quickly and<br />performance isn’t related to market moves<br />• Can’t compile a list of failed Turnarounds,<br />since their records get deleted after collapse<br />• Turnaround types:<br />i) Bail Us Out Or Else: whole deal depends<br />on a government bailout.<br />ii) Who Would’ve Thought: can lose money<br />in utilities?<br />iii) Unanticipated Problem: minor tragedy<br />perceived to be worse, leading to major<br />opportunity. Be patient. Keep up with<br />news. Read it with dispassion. Stay away<br />from tragedies where the outcome is<br />immeasurable.<br />iv) Good Company Inside a Bad one:<br />possible bankruptcy spinoff. Look for<br />institutional selling and insider buying.<br />Did the parent strengthen the company’s<br />balance sheet pre-spinoff?<br />v) Restructuring: company diworseified<br />earlier, now the loss making business is<br />being sold off, costs cut etc.<br />• How will earnings change?<br />i) Lower costs<br />ii) Higher prices<br />iii) Expansion into new markets<br />iv) Higher volume sold in old markets<br />v) Changes in loss making operations<br />• Buy companies with superior financial<br />condition. Young company + Heavy Debt =<br />Higher Risk. Determine extent of leverage<br />and what kind is it? Long term funded debt<br />is preferable to Short/Medium term callable<br />bank debt, which may trigger bankruptcy.<br />• Inventory growth > Sales growth = Red flag,<br />& inventory growth is a bad sign. Depleting<br />inventory means things maybe turning<br />positive. High inventory build up overstates<br />earnings - may mean that management is<br />deferring losses by not marking down the<br />unsold items & getting rid of them quickly.<br />• Asset/inventory values maybe inflated. Raw<br />materials are liquidated better than finished<br />goods. Check for pension liabilities and<br />capitalized interest expense in asset values.<br />• Upswing favours Turnarounds > Normal<br />companies. So look for low margin<br />companies to succeed via operating leverage<br />/ high cost of production.<br />• If the industry is robust in general and the<br />company’s business doesn’t do well, then<br />one maybe pessimistic about its future.<br />• If the entire industry is in a slump & due for<br />a rebound, & the company has strengthened<br />its balance sheet and is close to the breakeven <br />point, then it has the potential to do<br />jumbo sales when the industry picks up.<br />• Name changes may happen due to M&A or<br />some fiasco that they hope will be forgotten.<br />• Are Turnarounds obvious winners? In<br />hindsight, yes, but a company doesn’t tell<br />you to buy it. There’s always something to<br />worry about. There are always respected<br />investors who say that you’re wrong. You’ve<br />to know the story better than they do and<br />have faith in what you know.<br />• For a stock to do better than expected, it has<br />to be widely underestimated. Otherwise, it’d<br />sell for a higher price to begin with. When<br />the prevailing opinion is more negative than<br />yours, you’ve to constantly check & re-check<br />the facts, to assure yourself that you’re not<br />being foolishly optimistic. The story keeps<br />changing for better or worse, and you’ve to<br />follow these changes and act accordingly.<br />• With Turnarounds, Wall Street will ignore<br />changes. The Old company had made such a<br />powerful impression that people can’t see<br />the New one. Even if you don’t see it right<br />away, you can still profit more than enough.<br />• Cyclicals with serious financial problems<br />collapse into Turnarounds. Also, fast<br />growers that diworseify & fall out of favour.<br />• If Slow Grower = Turnaround, then it’s<br />performance maybe > Stalwart/Fast Grower<br />• Remind yourself of the Even Bigger Picture –<br />that stocks in good companies are worth<br />owning. What’s the worst that can happen?<br />Recession turns into depression? Then<br />interest rates will fall, competitors will falter<br />etc. if things go right, how much can I earn?<br />What’s the reward side of the equation? Take<br />the industry which is surrounded by the<br />most doom and gloom. If the fundamentals<br />are positive, you’ll find some big winners.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Examples<br /></u></b>• Auto (Ford Chrysler), paper, airlines<br />(Lockheed), steel, electronics, non-ferrous<br />metals, real estate, oil & gas, retail, Penn<br />Central, General Utilities, Con Edison, Toys<br />R Us spinoff, Union Carbide, Goodyear.<br />• Record with troubled utilities is better than<br />troubled companies in general, because of<br />regulations. A utility may cancel dividends /<br />declare bankruptcy, but if people depend on<br />it, a way must be found to let it continue<br />functioning. Regulation determines prices,<br />profits, passing on costs to customers. Since<br />the government has a vested interest in its<br />survival, the odds are overwhelming that it<br />will be allowed to overcome its problems.<br />• Troubled Utility Cycle:<br />i) Disaster Strikes: some huge cost (fuel)<br />can’t be passed along, or, because a huge<br />asset is mothballed & removed from the<br />base rate. Stock drops 40-80% in 1-2<br />years, horrifying people who view utilities<br />as safe & stable investments. Soon, it<br />starts trading at 20-30% P/B. Wall Street<br />is worried about fatal damage – how long<br />it takes to reverse this impression varies.<br />30% P/B implies bankruptcy, emergence<br />from which may take upto 4 years.<br />ii) Crisis Management: utility attempts to<br />respond by cutting costs and capex.<br />Dividend maybe decreased / eliminated.<br />Begins to look as if the company will<br />survive, but price doesn’t reflect the<br />improved prospects.<br />iii) Financial Stabilization: cost cuts have<br />succeeded, allowing it to operate on<br />current revenues. Capital markets maybe<br />unwilling to lend money for new projects<br />& it’s still not earning money for owners,<br />but survival isn’t in doubt. Prices recover<br />to 60-70% P/B, 2x from stage (i), (ii)<br />iv) Recovery At Last: once again capable of<br />earning and Wall Street has reason to<br />expect improved earnings and the<br />reinstatement of dividends. P/B = 1x.<br />How things progress from here depends<br />on, (a) reception from capital markets,<br />because without capital, a utility cannot<br />increase its base rates, and, (b) support<br />from regulators’, ie, how many costs are<br />allowed to be passed on?<br />• One person’s distress is another man’s<br />opportunity. You don’t need to rush into<br />troubled utilities to make large profits. Can<br />wait until the crisis has abated, doomsayers<br />are proven wrong, and, still make 2-4x in<br />short term. Buy on the omission of dividend<br />& wait for the good news. Or buy when the<br />first good news has arrived in stage (ii).<br />• The problem that some people have is they<br />think they’ve missed it if the stock falls to<br />$4, then rebounds to $8. A troubled<br />company has a long way to go and you’ve to<br />forget that you’ve missed the bottom.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>People Examples<br /></u></b>• Guttersnipes, drifters, down and outers,<br />bankrupts, unemployed – if there’s energy<br />and enterprise left.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>2 Minute Drill<br /></u></b>• Has the company gone about improving its<br />fortunes and is the plan working?<br />• General Mills has made great progress on<br />diworseification. Cut down from 11 to 2<br />businesses that are key and the company<br />does best. Others were sold at good price<br />and the cash was used for buybacks. 1 key<br />business’ market share has improved from 7<br />to 25% and is coming up with new products.<br />Earnings are up sharply.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Checklist<br /></u></b>• Plan – how will it turnaround? Sell loss<br />making subsidiaries? Cut costs? What’s the<br />impact of these actions? Is business coming<br />back? New products?<br />• Survival – can it survive a raid by short term<br />creditors? Check cash/debt position, capital<br />structure, can it sustain more losses?<br />• Bottom Fishing – if it’s bankrupt already,<br />then what’s left for owners?<br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u>Portfolio Allocation %</u></b><br />• 20-50% Allocation, based on where greater<br />value exists - Turnarounds or Fast Growers</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Risk/Reward<br /></u></b>• High Risk – High Gain.<br />• Higher potential upside (10x) vs higher<br />potential downside (100% loss).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Sell When<br /></u></b>• After Turnaround is complete, trouble is<br />over, everyone is aware of changed situation,<br />& the company is re-classified as a Cyclical/<br />Fast/Slow Grower etc. Stockholders aren’t<br />embarrassed to own the shares anymore.<br />• Stock is judged to be a 2x, but not 5-10x<br />• PE is inflated vs Earnings prospects, sell and<br />rotate into juicier Turnaround opportunities,<br />where Fundamentals are better than Price.<br />• Debt, which has declined for 5 consecutive<br />quarters, rises again. Indicates increased<br />chances of relapse.<br />• Inventory rise > 2x Sales increase.<br />• >50% sales of the company’s strongest<br />division’ come from some customer whose<br />sales are slowing down.</div><p><br /></p><p>The Peter Lynch Playbook</p><p>Twitter@mjbaldbard 5 mayur.jain1@gmail.com</p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-18684184186787245782024-03-14T16:21:00.006+08:002024-03-14T21:19:03.273+08:00Cyclicals<div style="text-align: left;"><b> CYCLICALS</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /></b><b><u>Traits<br /></u></b>• Sales and profits rise and fall in regular, if<br />not completely regular fashion, as business<br />expands and contracts.<br />• Timing is everything. Coming out of a<br />recession into a vigorous economy, they<br />flourish more than Stalwarts. In the opposite<br />direction, they can lose >50% very quickly<br />and may take years before another upswing.<br />• Most misunderstood type, and investors can<br />lose money in stocks considered safe. Large<br />Cyclicals are falsely classified as Stalwarts.<br />• If a defensive Stalwart loses 50% in a slump,<br />then Cyclicals may lose 80%.<br />• It’s much easier to predict upswing, vs, a<br />downturn, so one has to detect early signs of<br />business changes. You get a working edge if<br />you’re in the same industry – to be used to<br />your advantage. Most important in Cyclicals.<br />• Unreliable dividend payers. If they’ve<br />financial problems, then they become<br />potential Turnaround candidates.<br />• Inventory build-up = bad sign. Inventory<br />growth > Sales growth = red flag. Inventory<br />build-up with companies having fluctuating<br />end product pricing causes larger problems.<br />• Monitor inventory to figure out business<br />direction. If inventory is depleting in a<br />depressed company, it’s the first evidence of<br />a possible business turnaround.<br />• High Operating Profit Margin (OPM) = Lowest<br />Cost producer, who’s got a better chance of<br />survival if business conditions deteriorate.<br />• Upswing favours companies with Low<br />OPM’s. Therefore, what you want to do is to<br />Hold relatively High OPM companies for long<br />term and play relatively Low OPM companies<br />for successful Turnarounds / cycle turns.<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhdcVG5IIojuH05LEYKJqQ7q1zesvlYKtE8fjFpwGoGCvbA1oN6Lz1dRsjPDB1saUi4-c6-DiqYnXuD41SXMFx1ndFzOBKh9m0H2HOcFV2OAAM7-iW2B713RD0PKgFFd0pe7JMMJ_g49ZABRPjvwsSd5XJ3i0pHi7Obffaz2NPzitan4JP8smIuuOoRSmM" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="123" data-original-width="386" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhdcVG5IIojuH05LEYKJqQ7q1zesvlYKtE8fjFpwGoGCvbA1oN6Lz1dRsjPDB1saUi4-c6-DiqYnXuD41SXMFx1ndFzOBKh9m0H2HOcFV2OAAM7-iW2B713RD0PKgFFd0pe7JMMJ_g49ZABRPjvwsSd5XJ3i0pHi7Obffaz2NPzitan4JP8smIuuOoRSmM" width="320" /><br /></a>• The best time to get involved with Cyclicals<br />is when the economy is at its weakest,<br />earnings are at their lowest, and public<br />sentiment is at its bleakest. Even though<br />Cyclicals have rebounded in the same way 8<br />times since WWII, buying them in the early<br />stages of an economic recovery is never easy.<br />• Every recession brings out sceptics who<br />doubt that we will ever come out of it, who<br />predict a depression and the country going<br />bankrupt. If there’s any time not to own<br />Cyclicals, it’s in a depression. “This one is<br />different,” is the doomsayer’s litany, and, in<br />fact, every recession is different, but that<br />doesn’t mean it’s going to ruin us.<br />• Whenever there was a recession, Lynch paid<br />attention to them. Since he always thought<br />positively and assumed that the economy<br />will improve, he was willing to invest in<br />Cyclicals at their nadir. Just when it seems<br />it can’t get any worse, things begin to get<br />better. A comeback of depressed Cyclicals<br />with strong balance sheets is inevitable.<br />• Cyclicals lead the market higher at the end<br />of a recession – how frequently today’s<br />mountains turn into tomorrow’s molehills,<br />and, vice versa.<br />• Cyclicals are like blackjack: stay in the game<br />too long and it’s bound to take back all your<br />profits. Things can go from good to worse<br />very quickly and it’s important to get out at<br />the right time.<br />• As business goes from lousy to mediocre,<br />investors in Cyclicals can make money; as it<br />goes from mediocre to good, they can make<br />money; from good to excellent, they may<br />make a little more money, though not as<br />much as before. It’s when business goes<br />from excellent back to good that investors<br />begin to lose; from good to mediocre, they<br />lose more; and from mediocre to lousy,<br />they’re back where they started.<br />• So, you have to know where we are in the<br />cycle. But it’s not quite as simple as it<br />sounds. Investing in Cyclicals has become a<br />game of anticipation, making it doubly hard<br />to make money. Large institutions try to get<br />a jump on competitors by buying Cyclicals<br />before they’ve shown any signs of recovery.<br />This can lead to false starts, when stock<br />prices run up and then fall back with each<br />contradictory statistic (we’re recovering,<br />we’re not recovering) that is released.<br />• The principal danger is that you buy too<br />early, then get discouraged, and, sell. To<br />succeed, you’ve to have some way of<br />tracking the fundamentals of the industry<br />and the company. It’s perilous to invest<br />without the working knowledge of the<br />industry and its rhythms.<br />• Timing the cycle is only half the battle.<br />Other half is picking companies that will<br />gain Most from an upturn. If Industry pick =<br />Right, but Company pick = Wrong, then you<br />can lose money just as easily as if you were<br />wrong about the industry.<br />• If investing in a troubled industry, buy<br />companies with staying power. Also, wait for<br />signs of revival. Some troubled industries<br />never came back.<br />• If you sell at 2x, you won’t get 10x. If the<br />original story is intact or improving, stick<br />around to see what happens and you’ll be<br />amazed at the results.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Examples<br /></u></b>• Auto, airlines, steel, tyres, chemicals,<br />aerospace & defence, non-ferrous metals,<br />nursing, lodging, oil & gas<br />• Autos: 3-4 up years, after 3-4 down years.<br />Worse Slump = Better Recovery. An extra<br />bad year brings longer and more sustainable<br />upside. People will eventually replace their<br />cars, even if put off for 1-2 years.<br />o Units of pent up demand – compare<br />Actual Sales vs Trend, ie, estimate of<br />how many units should’ve been sold<br />based on demographics, previous year<br />sales, age of cars on road etc.<br />o 1980-83 = sluggish economy + people<br />saving up, therefore pent up demand =<br />7mm. 1984-89 boom, sales exceeded<br />trendline by 7.8mm.<br />o After 4-5 years below trend, it takes<br />another 4-5 years above trend, before<br />the car market can catch upto itself. If<br />you didn’t know this, you might sell your<br />auto stocks too soon. After 1983, sales<br />increased from 5mm to 12.3mm and you<br />might sell fearing the boom was over.<br />But if you follow the trend, you’d know<br />the pent up demand was 7mm, which<br />wasn’t exhausted until 1988, which was<br />the year to sell your auto stocks, since<br />pent up demand from early 80’s got used<br />up. Even though 1989 was a good year,<br />units sold fell by 1mm.<br />o If industry had 5 good years, it means<br />it’s somewhere in the middle of the cycle.<br />Can predict upturn, not downturn.<br />o Chrysler EPS for 1988, ’89, ’90 & ’91<br />was $4.7, $11.0, $0.3 & Loss,<br />respectively. When your best case is<br />worse than everyone’s worst case, worry<br />that the stock is floating on fantasy.<br />• At one point, high yield Utilities were 10% of<br />Magellan’s AUM. This usually happened<br />when interest rates were declining and the<br />economy was in a splutter. Therefore, treat<br />Utilities as interest rate Cyclicals and time<br />entry and exit accordingly. Can also treat<br />Fannie / NBFC’s as interest rate Cyclicals<br />benefitting from rate cuts.<br />• In the Gold Rush, people selling picks and<br />shovels did better than the miners. During<br />periods when mutual funds are popular,<br />investing in the fund companies is more<br />rewarding than putting money into their<br />funds. When interest rates are falling, bond<br />& equity funds attract most cash. Money<br />market funds prosper when rates rise.<br />• In US /Europe insurance companies, the<br />rates go up months before earnings show<br />any improvement. If you buy when the rates<br />first begin to rise, you can make a lot of<br />money. It’s not uncommon for a stock to<br />become 2x after a rate increase and another<br />2x on the higher earnings that result from a<br />rate increase.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>People Examples<br /></u></b>• Make all their money in short bursts, then<br />try to budget it through long, unprofitable<br />stretches. Farmers, resort employees, camp<br />operators, writers, actors. Some may also<br />become Fast Growers.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>PE Ratio<br /></u></b>• Slow Growers (7-9x) < Cyclicals (7-20x) <<br />Fast Growers (14-20x)<br />• Assigning PE’s: Peak EPS (3-4x) < Decent<br />EPS (5-8x) < Average EPS (8-10x)<br />• Stock Pattern: 1990 EPS = $6.5, Price Range<br />= $23 - $36, PE Range = 3.6-5.5x. 1991 EPS<br />= $3.9, Price drops to $26. PE = 6.7x, higher<br />than previous year PE, that had higher EPS.<br />• With most stocks, a Low PE is regarded as a<br />good thing, but not with Cyclicals. When<br />Low, it’s usually a sign that they are at the<br />end of a prosperous interlude.<br />• Unwary investors hold onto their shares<br />since business is still good & the company<br />continues to show higher earnings, but this<br />will change soon. Smart investors sell their<br />shares early to avoid the rush.<br />• When a large crowd begins to sell, the Price<br />and PE drops, making a Cyclical more<br />attractive to the uninitiated. This can be an<br />expensive misconception. Soon, the economy<br />will falter and earnings will decline at a<br />breathtaking speed. As more investors head<br />for the exit, price will plummet. Buying<br />Cyclicals after years of record earnings and<br />when PE has hit a low point is a proven<br />method to lose ~50% in a short time.<br />• Conversely, a High PE may be good news for<br />a Cyclical. Often, it means that a company is<br />passing through the worst of the doldrums<br />and soon its business will improve, earnings<br />will exceed expectations, and investors will<br />start buying the stock.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>2 Minute Drill<br /></u></b>• Script revolves around business conditions,<br />inventories and prices.<br />• There’s been a 3 year slump in autos but<br />this year things have turned around. I know<br />that because car sales are up across the<br />board for the first time in recent memory.<br />GM’s new models are selling well and in the<br />last 18 months GM closed down 5 inefficient<br />plants, cut 20% labour and earnings are<br />about to turn higher.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Checklist<br /></u></b>• Inventories: keep a close eye on inventory<br />levels, changes, and, the supply & demand<br />relationship.<br />• Competition: new entrants / added supply =<br />dangerous development, because they may<br />cut prices to capture market share.<br />• Know your Cyclical: if you do, then you have<br />an advantage in figuring things out and<br />timing the cycles.<br />• Balance Sheet: strong enough to survive the<br />next downturn? Can it outlast competitors?<br />Is capex on upgradation / expansion a cause<br />for concern? How much of a drag is it on<br />FCF? Is CF > Capex, even in bad years? Are<br />plant & machinery in good shape?</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Portfolio Allocation %<br /></u></b>• 10-20% Allocation</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Risk/Reward<br /></u></b>• Low Risk – High Gain; or<br />High Risk – Low Gain, depending on<br />investor adeptness at anticipating cycles.<br />• +10x / (80-90% loss)<br />• Get out of situations where Price overtakes<br />Fundamentals and rotate into Fundamentals<br />> Price</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Sell When<br /></u></b>• Understand strange rules to play game<br />successfully, because Cyclicals are tricky.<br />Sell towards the end of the cycle, but who<br />knows when that is? Who even knows what<br />cycles they’re talking about? Sometimes, the<br />knowledgeable vanguard sells 1 year before<br />any signs of decline, so price falls for no<br />apparent reason.<br />• Whatever inspired you to buy after the last<br />bust, will help clue you in that the latest<br />boom is over. If you’d enough of an edge to<br />buy in the first place, then you’ll notice<br />changes in business and price.<br />• Company spends on new technological<br />expansion, instead of cheaper expenditures<br />on modernizing old plants.<br />• Sell when something has actually gone<br />wrong. Rising costs, 100% utilization but<br />spending on capacity expansion, labour asks<br />for increased wages, which were cut in the<br />previous bust etc.<br />• Final product demand slows down.<br />Inventory builds up and the company can’t<br />get rid of it. If storage is full of finished<br />goods, you may already be late in selling.<br />• Falling commodity prices, Futures < Spot<br />Price. Oil, steel prices turn lower much<br />earlier than EPS impact.<br />• Strong competition for market share leads to<br />price cuts. Company tries cost cuts but can’t<br />compete against cheap imports.</div><p><br /></p><p>The Peter Lynch Playbook</p><p>Twitter@mjbaldbard 7 mayur.jain1@gmail.com</p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-89127603895903809562024-03-14T15:30:00.005+08:002024-03-14T21:20:06.577+08:00ASSET PLAYS<div style="text-align: left;"><b>ASSET PLAYS</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /></b><u><b>Traits<br /></b></u>• Local edge is useful, since Wall Street <br />ignores/overlooks valuable assets.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Examples<br /></u></b>• Railroads, TV stations, minerals, oil &amp; gas,<br />timber, newspapers, real estate, depreciation<br />on assets that appreciate over time, patents,<br />cash, subsidiary valuations, foreign owner<br />priced cheaper than local subsidiary, tax<br />loss carry forwards, goodwill amortization,<br />brands, holding company / conglomerate<br />discount, depreciated assets that don’t need<br />maintenance capex but still produce FCF<br />(rental equipment EPS = 0, but FCF =3)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>People Examples<br /></u></b>• Never do wells, trust fund men, squires, bon<br />vivants<br />• Live off family fortunes but never labour –<br />issue is what will be left after payments for<br />travel, liquor, creditors etc.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>PB Ratio<br /></u></b>• If 2-5x is the expected return, then entry<br />point for P/NAV = 20-50%</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>2 Minute Drill<br /></u></b>• What are the assets and what’s their worth?<br />• Stock = $8, but video cassette division = $4<br />and Real Estate = $7. That a bargain in itself<br />and the rest of the company = ($3). Insiders<br />are buying and the company has steady<br />earnings. There is no debt to speak of.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Checklist<br /></u></b>• NAV? Any hidden assets?<br />• Debt – does leverage detract from asset<br />value? Is new debt being added?<br />• Catalyst – how will value get unlocked?<br />Raider / activist?</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Portfolio Allocation %<br /></u></b>• 0% - NO Allocation</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Risk/Reward<br /></u></b>• Low Risk – High Gain, IF you’re sure that<br />NAV = 2-5x current price<br />• If wrong, you probably don’t lose much</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Hold<br /></u></b>• If company isn’t going on a debt binge and<br />reducing NAV</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>Sell When<br /></u></b>• Catalyst occurs – without raider/catalyst,<br />you may sit for ages<br />• Management dilutes/diworseifies<br />• Institutional ownership rises to 60% from 25<br />• Instead of a subsidiary selling for $100, it<br />sells for $60 - calculated NAV maybe inflated<br />• Tax rate deduction reduces value of tax loss<br />carry forwards</div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div><p>The Peter Lynch Playbook</p><p>Twitter@mjbaldbard 3 mayur.jain1@gmail.com</p></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-42220132459078137972024-03-11T17:31:00.004+08:002024-03-13T07:40:24.786+08:00 Enduring multi-baggers and Transitory multi-baggers.<p><span face="system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"" style="background-color: white; color: #212529; font-size: 16px;"><b><u>Stocks for the long run.</u></b></span></p><div class="row pt-1" style="--bs-gutter-x: 1.5rem; --bs-gutter-y: 0; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; margin-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ -2); margin-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ -2); margin-top: calc(var(--bs-gutter-y) * -1); padding-top: 0.25rem;"><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;">The power of compounding is truly remarkable, almost magical for those with the ability to identify these companies with earnings power over the long term.</p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />Do you know that DLady was priced RM 1.60 per share, Nestle RM 6 to RM 8 per share and Petdag RM 2.00 per share in the 1990s?</p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br /></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;">Today, DLady is RM 23.00 per share, Nestle is RM 120.00 per share and Petdag is RM 22.00 per share.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />The prices of these stocks have dropped from their highest. DLady has dropped from its historical high price of RM 75.00 per share. Nestle has dropped from its high of RM 160+ per share. Similarly, Petdag has dropped from its high price of RM 30+ per share a few years ago.</p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br /></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;">DLady has dropped a lot and there are various reasons for these. </p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br /></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;">How can you exploit any opportunities depend on how you approach your investing. </p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br /></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br /></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br /></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="system-ui, -apple-system, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica Neue, Arial, Noto Sans, Liberation Sans, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol, Noto Color Emoji" style="color: #212529;"><b><u>Enduring multi-baggers and Transitory multi-baggers.</u></b></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="system-ui, -apple-system, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica Neue, Arial, Noto Sans, Liberation Sans, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol, Noto Color Emoji" style="color: #212529;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><b style="color: #212529;">ENDURING multi-baggers </b><span style="color: #212529;">are those companies whose wealth creation is long-lasting and correction from the peak valuation is limited.</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><b><span style="color: red;">In fact, they continue to exist as multi-baggers even after the correction.</span></b><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="color: #212529;">The enduring multi-bagging companies are</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b> typically few and difficult to be spotted, and most of the time they appear to be expensive at the time of buying </b></span><span style="color: #212529;">because of the lack of faith in their longevity and size of growth.</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><b style="color: #212529;">TRANSITORY multi-baggers,</b><span style="color: #212529;"> on the contrary, are easier to be spotted but they always end up giving nasty end results.</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="color: #212529;">Corrections are typically almost 100 per cent.</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="color: #212529;">Cyclicals broadly come under this category.</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><b><span style="color: red;">The tragedy with this class of companies is that if you cannot sell in time, nothing is left in your hand.</span></b><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><span style="color: #212529;">But as correction is inevitable, market as a whole is left high and dry with a bad experience.</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" />These companies are<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b> plenty and easy to be found, and they attract a lot of crowd.</b></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br /></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><br /></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><b><u>Ten-baggers operate in growth industries.</u></b></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><b><u><br /></u></b></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">Ten-baggers are shares where you make 10 times your money (I believe the phrase is derived from baseball). </span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;">Such opportunities are rare,</span></strong><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"> but I have been fortunate enough over the years to be involved in a few such situations: <i><b>DLady, Nestle, Petdag</b></i> and others.</span><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">There tend to be some common characteristics among these winners.</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #2b00fe;"> <strong>The businesses all operate in growth industries and the company in question must be able to grow the top line.</strong> </span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;">No one ever made a tenfold return on a pure margin improvement, or cost-cutting story with no sales growth.<br /></span></strong><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #2b00fe;"><strong>Turnarounds</strong> </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">are, however, a rich source of 10-baggers. </span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">For these to work, one's timing has to be immaculate,</span></strong><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"> and the underlying business has to be sound - just desperately unloved by the stock market.</span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"><b><u>Patience is needed.</u></b></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Such returns need patience.</span></strong><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"> A hedge fund that churns its holdings every few months will never enjoy a 10-bagger. </span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;">And therein lies the greatest danger: selling too early to enjoy the 1,000 per cent gain.<br /></span></strong><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;">When you have doubled or trebled your money, it is so tempting to cash in profits.</span></strong><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"> It must have been tempting in the early 1950s to take profits on Glaxo shares, just a few years after their 1947 flotation. Or to have done the same for Tesco which floated in the same year. Or sell Racal in the late 1960s after its 1961 market debut, decades before it spun off Vodafone. </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: red;">Yet each of those shares rewarded patient investors with epic performances over many decades, all 20-baggers at least, not even allowing for dividend.<br /></span><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">One of the advantages that private equity enjoys is that it is forced to take a reasonably long-term view, and so is usually unable to rush for the exit at the first opportunity. Venture capital's other edge over quoted investors is debt: gearing in successful situations always amplifies the return to equity-holders. </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: red;">Typically, buy-outs have structures where 70 per cent of the capital is borrowed.<br /></span><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">Quoted companies probably have the reverse capitalisation, with </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: red;">equity providing three-quarters of the funding. </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #2b00fe;"><strong>And as ever in investing, those who regularly find 10-baggers say you should stick to your own sphere of competence: buy what you understand.</strong></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #2b00fe;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #2b00fe;"><strong><br /></strong></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><br /></span></strong></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><strong style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u>Usual rules apply: Quality, Management & Valuation</u></strong></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><br /></span></strong></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">But the usual rules apply: look for real companies with competent management and a proven business model.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: red;">You won't find a 10-bagger among much of the over-hyped, speculative froth. Search for the solid operation with strong fundamentals and a high quality of earnings.<br /></span></strong><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;">Very few acquisitive vehicles are 10-baggers.</span></strong><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"> </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #2b00fe;"><strong>Management in such firms focuses on doing deals rather than organically growing its core business.</strong> </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="color: #333333;">This can produce reasonable returns, but rarely delivers the stellar, long-run performance that can come from a strong business franchise in an attractive niche.</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"> </span></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><strong style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><br /></span></strong></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><strong style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">And balance sheets matter: 10-baggers must be able to fund expansion internally or through debt. Companies that are forever issuing equity dilute their stock performance.<br /></span></strong><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></p><p class="mb-0 pb-0 comment" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex-shrink: 0; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: var(--bs-gutter-y); max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: anywhere; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); padding-right: calc(var(--bs-gutter-x)/ 2); width: 827.354px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">So good luck in your search for the next blockbuster. It may well be an obscure, neglected company now, but with the potential for greatness. The secret is to spot that potential.</span><br style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-77350469496604742062024-03-10T08:52:00.004+08:002024-03-10T14:33:42.421+08:00JAYATIASA at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgUcnUV7tA6q96MombwUm00yXMHVWuLkxMGF8GcLj8ADi34AdqVBfBd4facNXMa1BkDaemg29KdLkIiqFxvLeoz4jXZFmHWIW8673idZOl_RnInhSCXg2YYt3Be9ekCKAWvlJT5mBlrKnBMMEi4pUVEARdcqFGAF4oSbHVkbGjLFpy0G345ChxhqIxska0" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3232" data-original-width="1083" height="1547" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgUcnUV7tA6q96MombwUm00yXMHVWuLkxMGF8GcLj8ADi34AdqVBfBd4facNXMa1BkDaemg29KdLkIiqFxvLeoz4jXZFmHWIW8673idZOl_RnInhSCXg2YYt3Be9ekCKAWvlJT5mBlrKnBMMEi4pUVEARdcqFGAF4oSbHVkbGjLFpy0G345ChxhqIxska0=w516-h1547" width="516" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjghH7bHDmlc27WTsRTvZRR8rUgBo769Og5JFcBUAlO39VybuPAfzkw80Rxhsvj5EZZbghBthdQjAfgVpgZDsYpI53eNhcoMYnI20CjrjJpADz3NYMX9c05WBCNzHOF6Gos5_RAlWt9nX5j-k0fdx-nxyamHBFLvlhk9i6i7lDmJiAJrOPrTnoquHdBFkU" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1075" data-original-width="1256" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjghH7bHDmlc27WTsRTvZRR8rUgBo769Og5JFcBUAlO39VybuPAfzkw80Rxhsvj5EZZbghBthdQjAfgVpgZDsYpI53eNhcoMYnI20CjrjJpADz3NYMX9c05WBCNzHOF6Gos5_RAlWt9nX5j-k0fdx-nxyamHBFLvlhk9i6i7lDmJiAJrOPrTnoquHdBFkU=w507-h434" width="507" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-48681825579480579402024-03-09T16:24:00.005+08:002024-03-09T16:24:49.581+08:00Warren Buffett's Intrinsic Value Method Exposed <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mOoGdFFY480?si=sGe9FohXa3mK48MF" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-55872709863538169202024-03-05T17:54:00.003+08:002024-03-05T17:54:14.153+08:00Is There An Opportunity With Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) 41% Undervaluation?<p>Comment: </p><p>An example of using 2 stage growth model and discount cash flow method in valuing a company.</p><p>The discount cash flow method is based on 2 assumptions: future cash flows and the applied discount rate. </p><p>It is not an exact science. One should you conservative assumptions in your valuation.</p><p>Charlie Munger mentioned that he had never seen Warren Buffett using the DCF method in his valuation. There are better and easier ways to value a company. Often you will know if a company is cheap or very expensive, even without having to do elaborate studies. (An analogy is you do not need to know the weight to know that this person is overweight or obese or underweight.) </p><p>Keep your valuation simple. It is better to be approximately right than to be exactly wrong.</p><p>The article below shares how to do valuation in detail.</p><p>Happy investing. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="caas-content-byline-wrapper" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><div class="caas-attr" style="align-items: center; display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 20px;"><div class="caas-attr-meta" style="display: inline-block; font-size: 1.385em; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1; vertical-align: middle;"><div class="caas-attr-time-style" style="color: #6e7780; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1; padding-top: 5px;"><time class="" datetime="2024-03-04T11:00:49.000Z">Mon, 4 March 2024 at 7:00 pm GMT+8</time><span class="caas-attr-meta-separator" style="padding: 0px 8px;">·</span><span class="caas-attr-mins-read">6-min read</span></div></div></div><div class="caas-content-contain-share"></div><div class="caas-attr-separator" style="height: 8px; margin-bottom: 30px; margin-top: 20px; width: 300px;"><div class="separator" style="border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0) transparent transparent; border-style: solid; border-width: 8px 3px 0px 0px; display: inline-block; width: 230.983px;"></div><div class="separator-ext" style="border-color: transparent transparent rgb(255, 211, 51); border-style: solid; border-width: 0px 0px 9px 3px; display: inline-block; margin-left: 10px; width: 29.9879px;"></div></div></div><div class="caas-xray-wrapper caas-xray-wrapper-type-cards caas-xray-wrapper-position-top" style="background-color: white; color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; position: relative;"><div class="caas-xray-pills-container" style="position: relative;"><div class="caas-xray-pills-list-wrapper" style="margin: -16px 75.6917px 4px -10px; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 16px; padding-left: 10px; padding-top: 16px; position: relative;"><div class="xray-cards-gradient-mask xray-cards-gradient-mask-next" style="background-image: linear-gradient(to right, rgba(255, 255, 255, 0), rgb(255, 255, 255) 40%); bottom: 0px; content: ""; opacity: 0; pointer-events: none; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 8px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in-out 0s; width: 80px; z-index: 1;"><br /></div><div class="xray-cards-gradient-mask xray-cards-gradient-mask-previous" style="background-image: linear-gradient(to left, rgba(255, 255, 255, 0), rgb(255, 255, 255) 40%); bottom: 0px; content: ""; left: 0px; opacity: 0; pointer-events: none; position: absolute; top: 8px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in-out 0s; width: 80px; z-index: 1;"></div></div></div><div class="fireplace-module fireplace-xray fireplace-device-desktop fireplace-card-follow-button-popover-container" style="font-family: "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><div class="fire-xray-sign-in-popover wafer-toggle" data-wf-toggle-class="clickOutside:remove:fire-xray-sign-in-popover-open" id="sign-in-popover-244db01a-a2eb-47ad-b78d-0c8cb66c378a" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 1px solid rgb(224, 228, 233); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.05) 0px 0px 2px, rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 4px 16px; left: -9999px; margin-top: 10px; opacity: 0; padding: 22px 24px; pointer-events: none; position: absolute; right: auto; text-align: center; top: 102.379px; visibility: hidden; z-index: 1;"><div class="fire-xray-sign-in-popover-label" style="color: #232a31; font-size: 1.07692em; margin-bottom: 10px; text-wrap: nowrap;"></div><button class="fire-xray-sign-in-popover-button rapid-noclick-resp caas-button fireplace-rapid-lt-button" data-rapid_p="3" data-v9y="0" data-ylk="cpos:1;g:4e92e91d-6863-36a0-b9ff-e5109f9fbb59;sec:pill-follow;mpos:1;cid:JNJ;elm:signin-popover;elmt:ticker;itc:0;pkgt:article-card;pos:0;slk:Sign in" style="appearance: button; background-color: #0f69ff; border-color: initial; border-radius: 24px; border-style: none; border-width: initial; color: white; cursor: pointer; font: 600 1.07692em / 1 "YahooSans VF", "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; min-width: 90px; overflow: visible; padding: 8px 24px; text-align: left; text-wrap: nowrap;"></button><div class="fire-xray-sign-in-popover-arrow" style="border-color: transparent transparent rgb(224, 228, 233); border-style: solid; border-width: 10px; content: " "; left: 105.728px; margin-top: -10px; position: absolute; right: auto; top: -10px; transform: translateX(-50%);"></div></div></div></div><div class="caas-body" style="background-color: white; padding-right: 75.6917px; position: relative;"><h3 style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.33; margin: 10px 0px 15px;">Key Insights</h3><ul class="caas-list caas-list-bullet" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 1.538em;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Johnson & Johnson fair value estimate is US$275</p></li><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Johnson & Johnson is estimated to be 41% undervalued based on current share price of US$162</p></li><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;"><a class="link " data-rapid_p="15" data-v9y="0" data-ylk="slk:Analyst price target for JNJ is US$174;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" href="https://simplywall.st/company/id/F8F92AF2-8452-4CE8-B374-906EB8AF2A37/valuation?blueprint=2912833&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=yahoo" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Analyst price target for JNJ is US$174 </a>which is 37% below our fair value estimate</p></li></ul><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;">Does the March share price for Johnson & Johnson (<a class="link " data-rapid_p="16" data-v9y="0" data-ylk="slk:NYSE:JNJ;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" href="https://simplywall.st/company/id/F8F92AF2-8452-4CE8-B374-906EB8AF2A37?blueprint=2912833&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=intro&utm_source=yahoo" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">NYSE:JNJ</a>) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.</p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;">We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the <a class="link " data-rapid_p="17" data-v9y="0" data-ylk="slk:Simply Wall St analysis model;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" href="https://github.com/SimplyWallSt/Company-Analysis-Model/blob/master/MODEL.markdown#discounted-cash-flow-dcf" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Simply Wall St analysis model</a>.</p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span class="veryHighlightLink"><a class="link " data-rapid_p="18" data-v9y="0" data-ylk="slk:Check out our latest analysis for Johnson & Johnson;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" href="https://simplywall.st/company/id/F8F92AF2-8452-4CE8-B374-906EB8AF2A37?blueprint=2912833&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=yahoo" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Check out our latest analysis for Johnson & Johnson</a></span></p><h2 style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.85em; line-height: 1.33; margin: 0.8em 0px;">What's The Estimated Valuation?</h2><div class="caas-da" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; text-align: center;"><div id="sda-INARTICLE"></div></div><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;">We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.</p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;">A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:</p><h4 style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; margin: 5px 0px;">10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate</h4><div class="caas-table" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; overflow: auto;"><table style="border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; font-size: 0.7em; line-height: 1.2em; margin: 0px; width: 681.323px;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0px;"></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2024</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2025</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2026</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2027</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2028</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2029</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2030</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2031</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2032</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">2033</span></p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Levered FCF ($, Millions)</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$22.8b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$23.9b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$24.5b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$25.0b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$26.4b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$27.2b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$28.0b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$28.7b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$29.4b</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$30.2b</p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Growth Rate Estimate Source</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Analyst x5</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Analyst x6</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Analyst x5</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Analyst x3</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Analyst x3</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Est @ 2.99%</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Est @ 2.78%</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Est @ 2.63%</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Est @ 2.53%</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">Est @ 2.46%</p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%</span></p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$21.5k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$21.3k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$20.6k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$19.9k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$19.8k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$19.2k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$18.6k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$18.1k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$17.5k</p></td><td style="padding: 0px;"><p style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px;">US$16.9k</p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><i>("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)</i><br /><span style="font-weight: 600;">Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)</span> = US$193b</p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;">We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.0%.</p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Terminal Value (TV)</span>= FCF<span style="bottom: -0.25em; font-size: 13.5037px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2033</span> × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$30b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.0%– 2.3%) = US$838b</p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)</span>= TV / (1 + r)<span style="font-size: 13.5037px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">10</span>= US$838b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)<span style="font-size: 13.5037px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">10</span>= US$469b</p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;">The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$663b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$162, the company appears quite good value at a 41% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.</p><figure class="caas-figure" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; margin: 0px 0px 1em;"><div class="caas-figure-with-pb" style="max-height: 380px; overflow-y: hidden;"><div class="caas-img-container" style="overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 306.59px; position: relative;"><a class="link" data-rapid_p="20" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="" href="https://simplywall.st/company/id/F8F92AF2-8452-4CE8-B374-906EB8AF2A37/valuation?blueprint=2912833&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=infographic&utm_source=yahoo" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="dcf" class="caas-img caas-lazy caas-loaded" data-caas-lazy-loading-init="1" loading="lazy" src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/xz2MdxI3EMaoTiQ9X79Plg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTQyODtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/simply_wall_st__316/5485b0f045b6b212a62e1a3510d2bd37" style="border-radius: 8px; border: 0px; height: auto; left: 340.655px; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1px; min-width: 1px; position: absolute; top: 0px; transform: translate(-50%, 0px); vertical-align: bottom;" /></a></div></div><div class="caption-wrapper caption-aligned-with-image"><figcaption class="caption-collapse" data-id="m-0" style="color: #6e7780; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.5; margin: 8px 0px;">dcf</figcaption></div></figure><h2 style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.85em; line-height: 1.33; margin: 0.8em 0px;">The Assumptions</h2><p style="font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="color: #1d2228;">The calculation above is very dependent on </span><span style="color: red;"><b>two assumptions. </b></span><span style="color: #1d2228;">The first is the </span><span style="color: red;"><u>discount rate</u></span><span style="color: #1d2228;"> and the other is the </span><span style="color: red;"><u>cash flows</u></span><span style="color: #1d2228;">. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Johnson & Johnson as potential shareholders, the <u>cost of equity</u> is used as the discount rate, rather than the <u>cost of capital </u>(or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.</span></p><h3 style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.33; margin: 10px 0px 15px;">SWOT Analysis for Johnson & Johnson</h3><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Strength</span></p><ul class="caas-list caas-list-bullet" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 1.538em;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Debt is not viewed as a risk.</p></li></ul><ul class="caas-list caas-list-bullet" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 1.538em;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.</p></li></ul><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Weakness</span></p><ul class="caas-list caas-list-bullet" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 1.538em;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Earnings declined over the past year.</p></li></ul><ul class="caas-list caas-list-bullet" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 1.538em;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Pharmaceuticals market.</p></li></ul><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Opportunity</span></p><ul class="caas-list caas-list-bullet" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 1.538em;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.</p></li></ul><ul class="caas-list caas-list-bullet" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 1.538em;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.</p></li></ul><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Threat</span></p><ul class="caas-list caas-list-bullet" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 1.538em;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: disc;"><p style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;">Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.</p></li></ul><h2 style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.85em; line-height: 1.33; margin: 0.8em 0px;">Next Steps:</h2><p style="font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="color: #1d2228;">Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. </span><span style="color: red;">The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool.</span><span style="color: #1d2228;"> Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Johnson & Johnson, there are three pertinent aspects you should consider:</span></p><ol class="caas-list" style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; list-style-position: inside; list-style-type: none; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px;"><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: decimal; margin-bottom: 0.8em;"><p style="display: inline; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Risks</span>: Every company has them, and we've spotted <a class="link " data-rapid_p="21" data-v9y="0" data-ylk="slk:1 warning sign for Johnson & Johnson;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" href="https://simplywall.st/company/id/F8F92AF2-8452-4CE8-B374-906EB8AF2A37?blueprint=2912833&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=conclusion&utm_source=yahoo" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 600;">1 warning sign for Johnson & Johnson </span></a>you should know about.</p></li><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: decimal; margin-bottom: 0.8em;"><p style="display: inline; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Future Earnings</span>: How does JNJ's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our <a class="link " data-rapid_p="22" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="slk:free analyst growth expectation chart;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" href="https://simplywall.st/company/id/F8F92AF2-8452-4CE8-B374-906EB8AF2A37/future?blueprint=2912833&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=conclusion&utm_source=yahoo" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">free analyst growth expectation chart</a>.</p></li><li style="font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; list-style-type: decimal; margin-bottom: 0.8em;"><p style="display: inline; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em; vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-weight: 600;">Other Solid Businesses</span>: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore <a class="link " data-rapid_p="23" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="slk:our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" href="https://simplywall.st/discover/investing-ideas/10146/solid-balance-sheet-and-fundamentals/global?blueprint=2912833&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=conclusion-grid&utm_source=yahoo" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals</a> to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!</p></li></ol><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;">PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just <a class="link " data-rapid_p="24" data-v9y="1" data-ylk="slk:search here;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" href="https://simplywall.st/discover/investing-ideas/157/popular-view?blueprint=2912833&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_campaign=conclusion-grid&utm_source=yahoo" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-color: transparent; color: #0f69ff; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">search here</a>.</p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><br /></p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.385em; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><br /></p><p style="color: #1d2228; font-family: "YahooSans VF", "Yahoo Sans", YahooSans, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"> </span><span style="font-weight: 700;">editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 0.8em;"><span style="color: #1d2228; font-family: YahooSans VF, Yahoo Sans, YahooSans, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18.005px;"><a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/opportunity-johnson-johnsons-nyse-jnj-110049724.html">https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/opportunity-johnson-johnsons-nyse-jnj-110049724.html</a></span></span></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-28514692410035890202024-03-02T07:08:00.002+08:002024-03-02T07:17:16.736+08:00Selling is often a harder decision than buying<p> </p><h3 class="post-title entry-title" itemprop="name" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 18px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; position: relative;"><a href="https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/01/selling-is-often-harder-decision-than.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">Selling is often a harder decision than buying</a></h3><div class="post-header" style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 1.6; margin: 0px 0px 1.5em;"><div class="post-header-line-1"></div></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: red; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>"If you have bought a good quality stock at bargain or reasonable price, you can often hold forever." </b></span><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br />Investing is fun. For every rule, there is always an exception. <br /></div><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">The main reasons for selling a stock are:<br /></div><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">1. When the fundamental has deteriorated permanently, (Sell urgently)<br /></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">2. When it is overpriced, whereby the upside gain will be unlikely or very small and the downside loss will be big or certain.</span><br /><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">We shall examine reason No. 2 through the property market. The property market is also cyclical. There were periods of booms and dooms. <br /></div><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">If you have a good piece of property that is always 100% tenanted and which gives you good consistent return (let's say 2x or 3x risk free FD rates), would you not hold this property forever? The answer is probably yes.</span><br /><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><strong><span style="color: red;">Then, when would you sell this property?</span></strong><br /></div><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Note that the valuation of property, as with stocks, is both objective and subjective.<br /></div><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><strong>Would you sell when someone offered to buy at 500% above your perceived market price?</strong> <span style="color: #333333;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;">Probably yes, as this is obviously overpriced. You could cash out and probably easily re-employ the money to earn better returns in another property (or properties) or other assets. <br /></span></div><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><b>Would you sell when someone offered to buy at 50% above your perceived market price?<span style="color: #333333;"> </span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;">Maybe yes or maybe no. You can offer your many reasons. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;">However, all these will be based on the<i><u> perceived future returns you can hope to get from this property in the future.</u> </i> This is both objective based on past returns obtained and subjective and speculative on future returns.</span><br /></div><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">However, unlike reason No.1 when you would need to sell urgently to another buyer to prevent sustaining a permanent loss, you need not sell just because someone offered to buy the property at high price. (However, there are also those who "flip properties" for their earnings; they will sell quickly for a quick profit.) <u><i>You will not suffer a loss but only a diminished return at worse. </i></u>You can take your time to <i><u>work out the mathematics. </u></i></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><i><u>You maybe surprised that you may still achieve a return higher at a time in the near future by rejecting the present immediate gain based on the present high price offered. </u></i></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Also, you would need to price in the <i><u>lost opportunity cost </u></i>when the property is sold at this price, even though it is 50% above the perceived normal market price. <i><u> Could you buy a similar quality property with the same sustainable increasing income or return by offering the same price?</u></i><br /></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><br /></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><br /></div><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><b><span style="color: red;">Similarly, the same line of thinking can be applied to your selling of shares. </span></b><span style="color: #333333;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;">When should you sell your shares? </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;">Yes, definitely when the fundamentals have deteriorated permanently. The business has suffered for various reasons and going forward, the earnings will be permanently impaired and deteriorating. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #333333;">Yes, when the price is very very overpriced. However, you need not sell your shares in good quality companies that you bought at fair or bargain price. As long as the fundamentals are strong and the business is adding value, selling now at a higher price may mean <u><i>losing the return that you could have obtained in the future years from owning this stock </i></u>and the<i><u> opportunity cost of reinvesting the cash into another stock of similar quality and returns. </u></i></span><strong style="color: #333333;"><span style="color: lime; font-size: large;"><i><u> </u></i></span></strong></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><strong style="color: #333333;"><span style="color: lime; font-size: large;"><br /></span></strong></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><strong style="color: #333333;"><span style="color: lime; font-size: large;">Once again, the importance of <span style="color: orange;">sound reasoning and doing the mathematics</span> in making a decision whether to sell or not.</span></strong><br /></div><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-align: -webkit-auto;">Is it not true, that <span style="font-size: medium;"><b>the really big fortunes from common stocks have been garnered by those</b></span><br /><ul style="line-height: 1.2; list-style: none; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;"><li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>who </b></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>made a<span style="color: yellow;"> </span><span style="color: magenta;">substantial commitment</span><span style="color: yellow;"> </span>in the<span style="color: magenta;"><span style="color: lime;">early years</span> </span>of a company in whose <span style="color: lime;">future they had great confidence</span> and</b></span></li><li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>who<span style="color: yellow;"> </span><span style="color: magenta;">held their original shares unwaveringly</span><span style="color: yellow;"> </span>while they increased 10-fold or 100-fold or more in value?</b></span></li></ul><br />The answer is<span style="font-size: medium;"><b style="color: lime;"> "Yes."</b></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b style="color: lime;"><br /></b></span></div><div face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" size="15px" style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 20px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><a href="http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html" style="color: #992211; text-decoration-line: none;">http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></span></div></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><strong><br /></strong></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><strong>Additional notes:</strong> </div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Other reasons for selling a stock (or property) are:<br /></div><ul style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;"><li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">To raise cash to <i><u>reinvest into another asset with better return.</u></i></li><li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">A certain stock (or property sector) may be<u><i> over-represented </i></u>in your portfolio due to recent rapid price rises and you need to reduce its weightage to reduce your risk of over-exposure in this single stock (or property sector).</li></ul><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></strong></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></strong></div>Footnote:</strong><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"> </span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">This is a true story. A rich man was approached by a buyer to sell his property. A few neighbouring lots were sold for $1.6 m the last 2 years. What offer will ensure that you sell your property to me? Please let me know. The unwilling owner replied, </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: red; font-size: 14.85px;">"$5 million".</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"> There is a lesson here too. :-)</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-1290288227715791932" itemprop="description articleBody" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.4; position: relative; width: 519.013px;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></div></span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-24573230870013445552024-03-01T23:07:00.004+08:002024-03-01T23:07:24.590+08:00KSL at a glance<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDdAk7jNHNrt-o13S_TCBgqHu7_VdxoiStL13FnkNTL25RWD8FTGzAToxm78alTiNr7I1-xeYfZXgqThTWzKoBGmzdV2D8jAkFCh8pSDbq6WRhkuXjxg9oLUvoLT8RFdkJYpH-YUv3Kz5eBfz22hLtNqJXLf6xZwa2YKf0LoLhUVPOfGPB9SHml9L6rjM" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="36" data-original-width="963" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDdAk7jNHNrt-o13S_TCBgqHu7_VdxoiStL13FnkNTL25RWD8FTGzAToxm78alTiNr7I1-xeYfZXgqThTWzKoBGmzdV2D8jAkFCh8pSDbq6WRhkuXjxg9oLUvoLT8RFdkJYpH-YUv3Kz5eBfz22hLtNqJXLf6xZwa2YKf0LoLhUVPOfGPB9SHml9L6rjM=w529-h23" width="529" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbjeb1zlVYu47t7W6mrOvYp-TftZF3WKRLH8CQrKDHmo77aSFwE1n4d76ssHhxDTSv0vinQLiY1egLYGY3ZE3mQa0MpYi2pOpgPQ_thcp7_MXwd1JlGSffh8Rtahpsi6F82jQ0F4AVR5j2bMdonh0mRz8y6jaE1ueBAUlJZt_GtWejH2JNw8OY9cpiexA" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1075" data-original-width="1256" height="455" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbjeb1zlVYu47t7W6mrOvYp-TftZF3WKRLH8CQrKDHmo77aSFwE1n4d76ssHhxDTSv0vinQLiY1egLYGY3ZE3mQa0MpYi2pOpgPQ_thcp7_MXwd1JlGSffh8Rtahpsi6F82jQ0F4AVR5j2bMdonh0mRz8y6jaE1ueBAUlJZt_GtWejH2JNw8OY9cpiexA=w531-h455" width="531" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj2uJ6n6V4YOahnpTkLaS_2122TYNdoJG3rdQr1R3z9G6TB_gzdbUUDB6S77_S5NVbnnxGPdRBx4og-llB8Kj6xMFoJuobNqXMER9RQMjyaZIM1zOsaUmqNr1Q0UuLU1PJ73JjlK4Qlt6Q_HGp8QaUGJ9KaMJEI0XLjP4qyDN9dZ7HW6YPBJ-eLkv90XAY" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1788" data-original-width="1058" height="891" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj2uJ6n6V4YOahnpTkLaS_2122TYNdoJG3rdQr1R3z9G6TB_gzdbUUDB6S77_S5NVbnnxGPdRBx4og-llB8Kj6xMFoJuobNqXMER9RQMjyaZIM1zOsaUmqNr1Q0UuLU1PJ73JjlK4Qlt6Q_HGp8QaUGJ9KaMJEI0XLjP4qyDN9dZ7HW6YPBJ-eLkv90XAY=w527-h891" width="527" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjOKb5MU8_-JMuFWOBNYFLbwJnKPNA6Zs2RZ4lCThANTN4oPffJkKcCrmpGSS6PlVrpoLH9-QYtzKKyc1wb0ZQ37SyKCb-Ps7jG9hEpty7VVLcF1qhP9WypIJ6kL377uodgHM1lkAJZ_o9WTWtR0kip0Jjys0sQOq9_YXyVwf3sOawv4rjljkLqMQJEH60" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="714" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjOKb5MU8_-JMuFWOBNYFLbwJnKPNA6Zs2RZ4lCThANTN4oPffJkKcCrmpGSS6PlVrpoLH9-QYtzKKyc1wb0ZQ37SyKCb-Ps7jG9hEpty7VVLcF1qhP9WypIJ6kL377uodgHM1lkAJZ_o9WTWtR0kip0Jjys0sQOq9_YXyVwf3sOawv4rjljkLqMQJEH60=w522-h303" width="522" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-1815804191981858582024-03-01T22:26:00.004+08:002024-03-01T22:26:31.963+08:00 How to invest in the stock market?<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Traditionally, stocks have provided high returns and have been a mainstay of most investors’ portfolios. Since a share of stock merely represents an ownership interest in an actual business, owning a portfolio of stocks just means we’re entitled to a share in the future income of all those businesses. If we can buy</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"> </span><b style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">good businesses that grow over time and we can buy them at bargain prices</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">, this should continue to be a</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"> </span><u style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">good way to invest a portion of our savings over the long term.</u><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"> </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Following a similar strategy with international stocks (companies based outside of the country e.g, United States and others) for some of our savings would also seem to make sense (in this way, we could own businesses whose profits might not be as dependent on our local economy or our local currency)</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-85727960740782199942024-03-01T12:20:00.001+08:002024-03-01T12:20:07.841+08:00QL at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhoMLfYSDSaJzieZMIQzIH-FOCfn59y2yXT6Rqmu29vx-4V17IKt9JiL1oQZwbki5X-s9f08I9mG82EiF2imyPgyw5TNVCagOIiJeTLuSIhp6vGx7PMrURihYMlu3_gd9-WpgragUzgJPozoQDGiRsFOHypDNHV0HgJKOSkpmOP0VZGv7h2nRKKYKQTOf0" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3228" data-original-width="1058" height="1610" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhoMLfYSDSaJzieZMIQzIH-FOCfn59y2yXT6Rqmu29vx-4V17IKt9JiL1oQZwbki5X-s9f08I9mG82EiF2imyPgyw5TNVCagOIiJeTLuSIhp6vGx7PMrURihYMlu3_gd9-WpgragUzgJPozoQDGiRsFOHypDNHV0HgJKOSkpmOP0VZGv7h2nRKKYKQTOf0=w530-h1610" width="530" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-85527118643469397272024-02-29T17:51:00.003+08:002024-02-29T17:51:14.267+08:00SAB at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEggZD8b-0xXkeTnRkHRyzm0xtNSlc3fMFG26Za5W1Adcscs1i6eYlazBHtm14PbnWbrGZq51NH2H6i5ITX9O9kkEg5hq8ify7tsEu73fehBr9tUAHs49IKgmRYR4KFlZ-_WvIpc6kdkK14_qXrhTi5fGiUlMofC6FuaeLciOMYPfr2I0HTBD4o7cptJo2A" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3224" data-original-width="1058" height="1592" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEggZD8b-0xXkeTnRkHRyzm0xtNSlc3fMFG26Za5W1Adcscs1i6eYlazBHtm14PbnWbrGZq51NH2H6i5ITX9O9kkEg5hq8ify7tsEu73fehBr9tUAHs49IKgmRYR4KFlZ-_WvIpc6kdkK14_qXrhTi5fGiUlMofC6FuaeLciOMYPfr2I0HTBD4o7cptJo2A=w524-h1592" width="524" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-49358276747261570532024-02-29T13:07:00.006+08:002024-02-29T13:07:56.932+08:00AFFIN at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhQZwLmkGxYYMtEkjFSu8QLaEQTugHNVAQafDHQuzXug4sDfyiFXH8a7JtZVjlwa_rj5Rc-la_Ku8jeS6C5htAYW2uIn-hBLKuf6OrGkc0IjrcgH2bRi74FcEndUCCsGq5-aH99ThL0teZBrHw2ONBXd_ahPKzIhgr0MUg0SWqhStgCp5ZIAomi62XxqA" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3142" data-original-width="1101" height="1469" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhQZwLmkGxYYMtEkjFSu8QLaEQTugHNVAQafDHQuzXug4sDfyiFXH8a7JtZVjlwa_rj5Rc-la_Ku8jeS6C5htAYW2uIn-hBLKuf6OrGkc0IjrcgH2bRi74FcEndUCCsGq5-aH99ThL0teZBrHw2ONBXd_ahPKzIhgr0MUg0SWqhStgCp5ZIAomi62XxqA=w514-h1469" width="514" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-2380845889048386402024-02-29T13:03:00.006+08:002024-02-29T13:03:29.541+08:00ASIAFILE at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh92ekhR2sl9dcv5Ci5pOidh0HayqdXnsZCokaLN5JIHTOy7kffqP7eiF6Rt8hkki_yrkgOfd9R7qB2TcLfCZNmq11aSXcpO7FD4xPb2-4vVOwkLnq-2yqTWcehKzzQ4YNwADE2BTtGSk0MZ_rNePPRJM7WrX12abL1bWWqsqSzlTx1XJKyLP5chR8FnXU" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3170" data-original-width="1101" height="1507" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh92ekhR2sl9dcv5Ci5pOidh0HayqdXnsZCokaLN5JIHTOy7kffqP7eiF6Rt8hkki_yrkgOfd9R7qB2TcLfCZNmq11aSXcpO7FD4xPb2-4vVOwkLnq-2yqTWcehKzzQ4YNwADE2BTtGSk0MZ_rNePPRJM7WrX12abL1bWWqsqSzlTx1XJKyLP5chR8FnXU=w521-h1507" width="521" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-53375534277406603512024-02-29T12:57:00.002+08:002024-02-29T12:57:13.380+08:00PHARMANIAGA at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhRtVgCb7LMlu8XzJSoUbj4G8XWM-5o2gdDA1nAQLvFu3OyY6argSgekXNnqc5zhnF783E_RHLVcHD7GToItfJqGpPCmGR00xeHkeUE3hcHImJ9DDMAeZb-4tAxM19cf8G_u6fQ7BvGvo6aD7pYSHdr9tAPR00Jhu98srRFptqOjsUBimoi9QCjOTSdcaw" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3292" data-original-width="1101" height="1562" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhRtVgCb7LMlu8XzJSoUbj4G8XWM-5o2gdDA1nAQLvFu3OyY6argSgekXNnqc5zhnF783E_RHLVcHD7GToItfJqGpPCmGR00xeHkeUE3hcHImJ9DDMAeZb-4tAxM19cf8G_u6fQ7BvGvo6aD7pYSHdr9tAPR00Jhu98srRFptqOjsUBimoi9QCjOTSdcaw=w521-h1562" width="521" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-9338659100904947562024-02-29T07:07:00.011+08:002024-02-29T09:23:18.154+08:00KELINGTON at a glance<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOEe28mpCoGeeSE_KT6_do1zlTqEMtJXKVmr2CAA78kpJJyi6homYSgXalSXxlpHA7qP3BHhYOgp3nkxg_7suEFcjCLAlD3HlXbsHdhzCuRnYriLL4Q-cbeLaavF0ZrjNXPeFCSDRqPY39Lcp-C-mtzI6CocjpEFk9eZb7TRvyU3EM5uyimdexEZ5jYRY" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1375" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOEe28mpCoGeeSE_KT6_do1zlTqEMtJXKVmr2CAA78kpJJyi6homYSgXalSXxlpHA7qP3BHhYOgp3nkxg_7suEFcjCLAlD3HlXbsHdhzCuRnYriLL4Q-cbeLaavF0ZrjNXPeFCSDRqPY39Lcp-C-mtzI6CocjpEFk9eZb7TRvyU3EM5uyimdexEZ5jYRY=w526-h276" width="526" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDCmG2UvfD54YYriv82kc1LagJkVlITWEzEWa5Z1u8b71xvvcgIvFkGIuQQUEUVBqAnv5Hr6TUJSs_32BnnNXnw0Ig0bq9vYDZVidS4VvZ-REYjtzM5ZrHPkcCIRBdX-T8omAvfFq4pfcT8VInrOhXFozl5vbgN2YZHiBtBQnsjxpcenbE7GthSQQ0PoE" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3092" data-original-width="1101" height="1467" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDCmG2UvfD54YYriv82kc1LagJkVlITWEzEWa5Z1u8b71xvvcgIvFkGIuQQUEUVBqAnv5Hr6TUJSs_32BnnNXnw0Ig0bq9vYDZVidS4VvZ-REYjtzM5ZrHPkcCIRBdX-T8omAvfFq4pfcT8VInrOhXFozl5vbgN2YZHiBtBQnsjxpcenbE7GthSQQ0PoE=w520-h1467" width="520" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgl5iXyerRm_HxBUvTsQJ_BBlNKoXc2NYjUQ_G9QCIcyO5AweK83wa0yGY7VSrcbG3Ib2LCzvHI92rKPx6U78RRW1c1coYGtBT74gGHZ1oKGIOPyucEzVjzJWgpow_rcxvdWCAbPSQzkl4C7l912tRz6Xndid1sWzXj4h0Ptjas5HSsHeTVwOsI8lkvHF0" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><br /><br /></div></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-59829902984099512082024-02-28T19:54:00.002+08:002024-02-28T19:54:09.207+08:00PPB at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxV0-RZb-zXEETjymvJikzsJo0izfZS4QDRZHnVPgayTSJvv83iqdz5Zhcgy8bDgTCveGhQzbpzZHMIapFChXFY8PzpknXH8ZiF8g3MfnWcBbDPhzKBH1yX-Y49s_C22ZWZOXaeJ3NklDRbo7CgoNN3JRwzmzbmfrcc3lCVEe3Ss60PW9dIDLrQr-3e8Q" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3094" data-original-width="1101" height="1436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxV0-RZb-zXEETjymvJikzsJo0izfZS4QDRZHnVPgayTSJvv83iqdz5Zhcgy8bDgTCveGhQzbpzZHMIapFChXFY8PzpknXH8ZiF8g3MfnWcBbDPhzKBH1yX-Y49s_C22ZWZOXaeJ3NklDRbo7CgoNN3JRwzmzbmfrcc3lCVEe3Ss60PW9dIDLrQr-3e8Q=w509-h1436" width="509" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-18569958962611071692024-02-28T19:38:00.007+08:002024-02-28T19:38:48.649+08:00MYEG at a glance<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi7AWXQBPvIEgBvYvs-o4_p8ljWz83MDMEJmVqhpV6167jDLmRzhXvsnKJkYwU_LcpO5d3-Umsa9qX5sg4s6yjQn4TgQmvfPqop6hic6Ajfqume1bsG7N604pGk1dBNWtKr44CD9fSw25CCjrFe6TACTi1hYm6dyOGLsV9xt5bOqWD5rvP95iV7joa5Qbw" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3122" data-original-width="1101" height="1468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi7AWXQBPvIEgBvYvs-o4_p8ljWz83MDMEJmVqhpV6167jDLmRzhXvsnKJkYwU_LcpO5d3-Umsa9qX5sg4s6yjQn4TgQmvfPqop6hic6Ajfqume1bsG7N604pGk1dBNWtKr44CD9fSw25CCjrFe6TACTi1hYm6dyOGLsV9xt5bOqWD5rvP95iV7joa5Qbw=w520-h1468" width="520" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2884768844412347068.post-26321552740030134902024-02-28T17:39:00.003+08:002024-02-28T17:39:11.092+08:00INARI at a glance<p> <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiK9LCIz_8pcOq-VALZDb8KodUEWvWf63lyX4gbgp18biNldKjSTl71kzAIBy26LHu8F9g7M85vp3OPy5MQS_s3jCDWpW_6T5vxYqSyDl_zQuLrPbG6m1MnaBOkrFYb7zwJexHn-pslaU58U84V5croKWqvz_Xo0z1atljRk3YwhcXKGLuNXbtRGLNIEmM" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="3068" data-original-width="1101" height="1432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiK9LCIz_8pcOq-VALZDb8KodUEWvWf63lyX4gbgp18biNldKjSTl71kzAIBy26LHu8F9g7M85vp3OPy5MQS_s3jCDWpW_6T5vxYqSyDl_zQuLrPbG6m1MnaBOkrFYb7zwJexHn-pslaU58U84V5croKWqvz_Xo0z1atljRk3YwhcXKGLuNXbtRGLNIEmM=w513-h1432" width="513" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Health is Wealth
Bullbear Stock Investing Notes</div>investbullbearhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08012146712936776873noreply@blogger.com0