Showing posts with label KLCI PE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label KLCI PE. Show all posts

Monday 9 January 2023

Why had the Malaysian stock market done so badly from 2014 to 2018?

In June 2019, the FBM KLCI had fallen in four of the last five years (2014 to 2018).  Why had the Malaysian stock market done so badly?

One of the biggest reasons had to be underlying earnings, which were the main driver of stock prices over the longer term.


Period of 5 years (2014 to 2018)

855 companies were categorised into their respective sectors 

-  To determine the profit trend and the compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) for each sector.  

-  The sector net margin for each year was also tabulated.


Findings:

Total net profit for all companies fell in 2015, 2016 and 2018 - the CAGR of the decline was 6.8%.  

Net profit margin too had contracted sharply over those five years, from an average of 11.3% in 2014 to 7.7% in 2018.

The years in which total net profit fell were also the years in which the FBM KLCI and broader-based FBM EMAS Index ended in the red.


Share prices and P/E valuations

Notably, the share prices declined but the size of the drop was lower than that for earnings.  

The result was the price-to-earnings valuations were higher in 2018 than they were in 2014.  

And this was why the stock market was underperforming - valuations were not attractive even though share prices were lower.

It also meant a turnaround was unlikely until there is a broad-based earnings recovery.


Sector Analysis (2014 to 2018)

Energy (oil and gas) sector fared the worst in terms of profits, given the sharp fall in crude oil prices and resulting collapse in global exploration and production activities.  Brent crude fell from US$110 a barrel at its 2014 peak to below US30 during the lows in 2016.  Oil prices were hovering around US $60 a barrel in 2018.

Plantation companies' profits too were affected by commodity prices falling 15.6% annually, on average, since 2014.  Crude palm oil fell from an average price of RM 2,400 a tonne in 2014 to RM 2,170 a tonne in 2015.  CPO prices recovered to RM 2,630 and RM 2,800 in 2016 and 2017 respectively before dropping back to RM 2,240 a tonne in 2018.

Construction, consumer products and services, properties, transport and logistics, utilities, telecommunications and media and even real estate investment trusts reported negative profit growth between 2014 and 2018.

Healthcare (15 companies)  was the best performing sector with a CAGR of 5.7% in their profits.

Financial services (34 companies) grew at a CAGR of 4.3% in their profits.

Technology (81 companies) expanded just 2% in their profits.

Industrial products and services (239 companies) is the biggest sector by number of companies and its profits were up only 0.4% a year.

Consumer products and services (183 companies), their profits fell 2.3% annually on average.

Property companies' profits declined at an average of 3.1% annually for the past four years.


Summary:

The energy and plantation sectors are heavily influence by external factors.

Overall, the average Malaysian company had not fared well at all from 2014 to 2018.  

Net profit margin for all sectors declined throughout the five-year period from 2014 to 2018.

Underlying earnings were the main driver of stock prices over the longer term.

Thursday 18 January 2018

KLCI 18.1.2018 (Market PE 17.76)

KLCI Component Stocks

Company Price  EPS  DPS  BVPS  PE DY P/B ROE
AMBANK (1015) 4.74 0.43 0.18 5.40 10.92 3.71 0.88 8.04
ASTRO (6399) 2.64 0.14 0.12 0.13 18.75 4.73 20.63 110
AXIATA (6888) 5.57 0.06 0.08 2.79 87.58 1.44 2.00 2.28
CIMB (1023) 6.79 0.46 0.20 5.31 14.67 2.95 1.28 8.72
DIGI (6947) 4.82 0.19 0.21 0.07 25.13 4.34 68.86 274
GENM (4715) 5.52 0.40 0.17 3.40 13.68 2.99 1.62 11.87
GENTING (3182) 9.61 0.62 0.12 9.10 15.46 1.3 1.06 6.83
HAPSENG (3034) 9.68 0.43 0.35 2.46 22.61 3.62 3.94 17.41
HLBANK (5819) 17.9 1.03 0.45 11.40 17.31 2.51 1.57 9.07
HLFG (1082) 17.78 1.37 0.38 14.91 12.95 2.14 1.19 9.21
IHH (5225) 6 0.10 0.03 2.71 59.82 0.5 2.21 3.7
IOICORP (1961) 4.64 0.16 0.10 1.18 29.2 2.05 3.93 13.47
KLCC (5235SS) 7.9 0.49 0.36 7.11 16.22 4.51 1.11 6.85
KLK (2445) 25.26 0.94 0.50 10.87 26.83 1.98 2.32 8.66
MAXIS (6012) 6.05 0.27 0.20 0.88 22.11 3.31 6.87 31.09
MAYBANK (1155) 9.85 0.72 0.52 6.80 13.74 5.28 1.45 10.54
MISC (3816) 7.44 0.55 0.30 8.16 13.59 4.03 0.91 6.71
NESTLE (4707) 107 2.47 2.70 2.87 43.32 2.52 37.28 86.06
PBBANK (1295) 20.92 1.41 0.58 9.30 14.85 2.77 2.25 15.14
PCHEM (5183) 8.2 0.52 0.19 3.44 15.77 2.32 2.38 15.11
PETDAG (5681) 24.92 1.53 0.70 5.96 16.26 2.81 4.18 25.71
PETGAS (6033) 17.94 0.90 0.62 6.23 20.04 3.46 2.88 14.38
PMETAL (8869) 5.6 0.15 0.10 0.47 37.01 1.7 11.91 32.19
PPB (4065) 17.4 1.12 0.25 17.78 15.56 1.44 0.98 6.29
RHBBANK (1066) 5.25 0.44 0.12 5.74 12.02 2.29 0.91 7.61
SIME (4197) 2.71 0.47 0.23 5.66 5.71 8.49 0.48 8.38
SIMEPLT (5285) 5.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 ###### 0
TENAGA (5347) 15.8 1.22 0.61 10.09 12.97 3.86 1.57 12.07
TM (4863) 6.11 0.21 0.22 2.00 28.45 3.52 3.05 10.72
YTL (4677) 1.5 0.07 0.09 1.43 20.75 6.33 1.05 5.06

Price, EPS, DPS and BVPS in RM


18.1.2018

KLCI                                  1824.81
Market PE 17.76
Market DY 3.04%
ROE 10.27%
P/BV 1.82


Historical Data

DateMarket PEMarket DYKLCI
10.12.2017 
2.11.2017
16.5
17.1
3.29%
3.10%
1721.25
1742.49
3.1.201417.13.20%1804.03
7.6.201316.23.47%1775.59
11.1.201316.63.17%1682.70
19.10.201217.72.90%1666.35
15.12.201115.13.42%1464.11
6.1.201117.23.00%1568.37
5.10.201017.55.70%1462.27
10.2.201018.83.03%1246.17
3.7.200910.23.71%

Tuesday 14 January 2014

Top 100 Companies of KLSE 3.1.2014 (Market P/E is 17.1 and DY is 3.2%)

TOP 100 COMPANIES (Market Price on January 3 (RM)

Rank Company Shares(m) Mkt price  Mkt Cap(m) PE DY PAT(m) Div(m)
1 Maybank 8862.30 9.91 87825.4 13.6 6.6 6457.8 5796.5
2 PBBank 3531.93 18.90 66753.4 17.1 2.6 3903.7 1735.6
3 Tenaga 5643.61 11.00 62079.7 13.3 2.3 4667.6 1427.8
4 Axiata 8540.63 6.80 58076.5 22.7 5.1 2558.4 2961.9
5 CIMB 7729.35 7.51 58047.4 12.9 3.1 4499.8 1799.5
6 Sime 6009.46 9.39 56428.9 15.2 3.6 3712.4 2031.4
7 Pchem 8000.00 6.84 54720.0 15.5 3.2 3530.3 1751.0
8 Maxis 7503.40 7.13 53499.2 28.9 5.6 1851.2 2996.0
9 PetGas 1978.73 23.60 46698.1 33.2 2.1 1406.6 980.7
10 DiGi 7775.00 4.85 37708.8 31.3 5.4 1204.8 2036.3
11 Genting 3719.48 10.08 37492.4 9.3 0.8 4031.4 299.9
12 IHH 8134.97 3.91 31807.7 34.1 0.0 932.8 0.0
13 PetDag 993.45 30.40 30201.0 36.1 3.5 836.6 1057.0
14 IOICorp 6444.29 4.58 29514.8 14.9 3.4 1980.9 1003.5
15 SKPetro 5992.16 4.57 27384.1 43.6 0.0 628.1 0.0
16 HLBank 1879.91 14.24 26769.9 13.5 3.2 1983.0 856.6
17 GENM 5937.48 4.38 26006.2 17.7 2.0 1469.3 520.1
18 KLK 1067.50 24.12 25748.2 28.0 2.1 919.6 540.7
19 MISC 4463.79 5.51 24595.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 AMBank 3014.18 7.29 21973.4 13.4 3.0 1639.8 659.2
21 RHBCap 2546.91 7.97 20298.9 10.1 2.8 2009.8 568.4
22 TM 3577.40 5.39 19282.2 15.3 4.1 1260.3 790.6
23 PPB 1185.50 15.92 18873.2 22.4 1.3 842.6 245.4
24 BAT 285.53 63.88 18239.7 22.9 4.3 796.5 784.3
25 YTL 10738.93 1.60 17182.3 12.4 1.6 1385.7 274.9
26 FGV 3648.15 4.53 16526.1 15.9 3.1 1039.4 512.3
27 HLFG 1052.77 15.50 16317.9 10.9 2.3 1497.1 375.3
28 Nestle 234.50 67.96 15936.6 31.5 3.1 505.9 494.0
29 Astro 5198.30 2.98 15490.9 13.4 1.3 1156.0 201.4
30 UMW 1168.29 12.28 14346.6 15.1 4.1 950.1 588.2
31 YTLPowr 7176.08 1.85 13275.7 12.5 0.5 1062.1 66.4
32 Armada 2931.59 4.08 11960.9 31.0 0.7 385.8 83.7
33 Airport 1232.44 8.80 10845.5 26.5 1.5 409.3 162.7
34 KLCC 1805.33 5.94 10723.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
35 Gamuda 2292.32 4.61 10567.6 18.2 2.6 580.6 274.8
36 UEMS 4537.44 2.32 10526.8 22.4 1.3 469.9 136.8
37 MMCCorp 3045.06 2.85 8678.4 9.4 1.6 923.2 138.9
38 WPRTS 3410.00 2.53 8627.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
39 Bkawan 435.95 19.60 8544.6 16.8 2.8 508.6 239.2
40 UMWOG 2162.00 3.91 8453.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
41 Dialog 2451.67 3.40 8335.7 42.1 1.0 198.0 83.4
42 GENP 758.85 10.98 8332.1 25.5 1.1 326.7 91.7
43 IJM 1413.59 5.85 8269.5 19.2 2.2 430.7 181.9
44 AFG 1548.10 4.80 7430.9 13.6 3.5 546.4 260.1
45 SPSetia 2458.71 2.95 7253.2 16.5 3.7 439.6 268.4
46 LAFMSIA 849.70 8.41 7145.9 20.5 4.4 348.6 314.4
47 F&N 365.16 18.40 6718.9 25.7 3.3 261.4 221.7
48 AirAsia 2781.03 2.37 6591.1 3.5 10.1 1883.2 665.7
49 BIMB 1493.51 4.38 6541.6 19.5 2.6 335.5 170.1
50 HapSeng 2205.00 2.95 6504.8 15.1 3.6 430.8 234.2
51 Affin 1494.58 4.26 6366.9 10.1 3.5 630.4 222.8
52 Bstead 1034.18 5.60 5791.4 13.9 5.8 416.6 335.9
53 MHB 1600.00 3.61 5776.0 23.9 2.8 241.7 161.7
54 MBSB 2621.80 2.17 5689.3 6.8 13.3 836.7 756.7
55 Utd Plant 208.13 26.18 5448.9 15.9 4.8 342.7 261.5
56 BJToto 1351.03 4.01 5417.6 13.8 7.0 392.6 379.2
57 Harta 745.64 7.23 5391.0 22.5 2.0 239.6 107.8
58 MAS 16710.78 0.32 5347.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
59 DRBHCOM 1933.24 2.72 5258.4 9.1 2.2 577.8 115.7
60 Orient 620.39 8.39 5205.1 22.1 1.0 235.5 52.1
61 GasMsia 1284.00 3.95 5071.8 31.2 3.2 162.6 162.3
62 GAB 302.10 15.90 4803.4 22.1 4.3 217.3 206.5
63 Aeon 351.00 13.64 4787.6 22.5 1.8 212.8 86.2
64 Sunway 1723.52 2.75 4739.7 7.7 1.9 615.5 90.1
65 Magnum 1437.75 3.15 4528.9 13.3 5.1 340.5 231.0
66 Kulim 1294.05 3.38 4373.9 5.0 29.1 874.8 1272.8
67 Bursa 532.61 8.13 4330.1 28.5 3.3 151.9 142.9
68 BJLand 5024.37 0.82 4120.0 124.2 1.2 33.2 49.4
69 IGBReit 3422.62 1.20 4107.1 26.6 1.5 154.4 61.6
70 IGB 1490.30 2.72 4053.6 21.8 2.8 185.9 113.5
71 Tchong 672.00 5.98 4018.6 24.7 2.0 162.7 80.4
72 PavReit 3009.68 1.32 3972.8 6.3 5.2 630.6 206.6
73 KPJ 1025.59 3.87 3969.0 24.7 2.0 160.7 79.4
74 IJMLand 1558.85 2.52 3928.3 16.4 2.0 239.5 78.6
75 LPI 221.32 17.46 3864.3 23.0 3.7 168.0 143.0
76 Carlsbg 308.08 12.24 3770.9 19.5 5.1 193.4 192.3
77 SunReit 2923.69 1.25 3654.6 8.9 6.6 410.6 241.2
78 MSM 702.98 5.10 3585.2 17.7 3.7 202.6 132.7
79 Top Glove 620.53 5.73 3555.6 18.1 2.8 196.4 99.6
80 Bintulu Port 460.00 7.50 3450.0 20.5 4.0 168.3 138.0
81 QL 832.02 4.10 3411.3 25.9 1.1 131.7 37.5
82 Mah Sing 1413.61 2.27 3208.9 9.9 2.7 324.1 86.6
83 Parkson 1093.90 2.86 3128.6 12.9 6.3 242.5 197.1
84 Dayang 550.00 5.66 3113.0 30.5 1.8 102.1 56.0
85 Dlady 64.00 47.30 3027.2 24.5 5.5 123.6 166.5
86 Pos 537.03 5.57 2991.2 19.7 3.1 151.8 92.7
87 Shang 440.00 6.78 2983.2 44.3 1.5 67.3 44.7
88 SOP 438.20 6.65 2914.1 21.5 0.9 135.5 26.2
89 Media 1100.46 2.62 2883.2 13.5 5.0 213.6 144.2
90 IJMPlnt 802.23 3.48 2791.8 23.3 2.0 119.8 55.8
91 TSH 903.83 2.92 2639.2 31.4 0.9 84.1 23.8
92 Kossan 639.47 4.10 2621.8 25.1 1.4 104.5 36.7
93 UOADev 1339.78 1.87 2505.4 7.6 6.4 329.7 160.3
94 CMMT 1772.82 1.40 2481.9 9.9 6.0 250.7 148.9
95 HLCap 246.90 10.00 2469.0 26.1 0.0 94.6 0.0
96 Kseng 362.09 6.73 2436.9 28.7 1.5 84.9 36.6
97 BJCorp 4299.56 0.56 2407.8 29.6 1.8 81.3 43.3
98 WCT 1092.46 2.14 2337.9 5.5 1.8 425.1 42.1
99 CMSB 339.70 6.78 2303.2 16.0 2.5 144.0 57.6
100 Zhulian 460.00 4.93 2267.8 19.4 3.1 116.9 70.3


1 billion = 1000m






Total Market
Cap (RM m)
1,404,453.40
1,404.5  billion

Total Market Earnings (m)
81,920.85
81.9 billion

Total Market Dividends (m)
44,611.00
44.6 billion

Market PE 17.1
Market DY 3.2%
Market Earnings Yield 5.8%


My thanks to Amy for the hard work.