Showing posts with label jobless claims. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jobless claims. Show all posts

Thursday 27 October 2011

First look at US pay data, it’s awful


OCT 19, 2011 


Anyone who wants to understand the enduring nature of Occupy Wall Street and similar protests across the country need only look at the first official data on 2010 paychecks, which the U.S. government posted on the Internet on Wednesday.
The figures from payroll taxes reported to the Social Security Administration on jobs and pay are, in a word, awful.
These are important and powerful figures. Maybe the reason the government does not announce their release — and so far I am the only journalist who writes about them each year — is the data show how the United States smolders while Washington fiddles.
There were fewer jobs and they paid less last year, except at the very top where, the number of people making more than $1 million increased by 20 percent over 2009.
The median paycheck — half made more, half less — fell again in 2010, down 1.2 percent to $26,364. That works out to $507 a week, the lowest level, after adjusting for inflation, since 1999.
The number of Americans with any work fell again last year, down by more than a half million from 2009 to less than 150.4 million.
More significantly, the number of people with any work has fallen by 5.2 million since 2007, when the worst recession since the Great Depression began, with a massive taxpayer bailout of Wall Street following in late 2008.
This means 3.3 percent of people who had a job in 2007, or one in every 33 30, went all of 2010 without earning a dollar. (Update: the original version of this column used the wrong ratio.)
In addition to the 5.2 million people who no longer have any work add roughly 4.5 million people who, due to population growth, would normally join the workforce in three years and you have close to 10 million workers who did not find even an hour of paid work in 2010.
SIX TRILLION DOLLARS
These figures come from the Medicare tax database at the Social Security Administration, which processes every W-2 wage form. All wages, salaries, bonuses, independent contractor net income and other compensation for services subject to the Medicare tax are added up to the penny.
In 2010 total wages and salaries came to $6,009,831,055,912.11.
That’s a bit more than $6 trillion. Adjusted for inflation, that is less than each of the previous four years and almost identical to 2005, when the U.S. population was 4.2 percent smaller.
While median pay — the halfway point on the salary ladder declined, average pay rose because of continuing increases at the top. Average pay was $39,959 last year, up $46 — or less than a buck a week — compared with 2009. Average pay peaked in 2007 at $40,764, which is $15 a week more than average weekly wage income in 2010.
The number of workers making $1 million or more rose to almost 94,000 from 78,000 in 2009. However, that was still below some earlier years, including 2007, when more than 110,000 workers made more than $1 million each.
At the very top, the number of workers making more than $50 million rose in 2010 to 81, up from 72 the year before. But average pay in this group declined $4.5 million to $79.6 million.
What these figures tell us is that there was a reason voters responded in the fall of 2010 to the Republican promise that if given control of Congress they would focus on one thing: jobs.
But while Republicans were swept into the majority in the House of Representatives, that promise has been ignored.
Not only has no jobs bill been enacted since January, but the House will not even bring up for a vote the jobs bill sponsored by President Obama. His bill is far from perfect, but where is the promised Republican legislation to get people back to work?
Instead of jobs, the focus on Capitol Hill is on tax cuts for corporations with untaxed profits held offshore, on continuing the temporary Bush administration tax cuts — especially for those making $1 million or more – and on cutting federal spending, which mean destroying more jobs in the short run.
At the same time, nonfinancial companies are sitting on more than $2 trillion of cash — nearly $7,000 per American — with no place to invest it profitably. This money cannot even be invested to earn the rate of inflation.
All this capital is sitting on the sidelines waiting for profitable opportunities to be invested, which will not and cannot happen until more people have jobs and wages rise, creating increased demand for goods and services.
More of the same approach we have had for most of the last three decades and all of the last ten years is not going to increase demand, create more jobs or enable overall prosperity. In the long run, continuing current policies will make even the richest among us less well off than they would be in a robust economy with government policies that foster job creation and the capital investment that grows from increased demand.
On top of this are the societal problems caused by something the United States has never experienced before, except during the Depression — chronic, long-term unemployment.
Having millions who want work go years without a single day on a payroll is more than just a waste of talent and time. It also can change social attitudes about work and not for the better.
The data show why protests like Occupy Wall Street have so quickly gained momentum around the country, as people who cannot find work try to focus the federal government on creating jobs and dealing with the banking sector that many demonstrators blame for the lack of jobs.
Will official Washington look at the numbers and change course? Or do voters need to change their elected representatives if they want to put America back on a path to widespread prosperity?
(Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh)


http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johnston/2011/10/19/first-look-at-us-pay-data-its-awful/

Saturday 5 December 2009

Economic Indicators: Jobless Claims

Economic Indicators: Jobless Claims Report


By Ryan Barnes

Release Date: Weekly; Thursdays, prior to market open
Release Time: 8:30am Eastern Standard Time
Coverage Previous week (cutoff date is previous Saturday)
Released By: U.S. Department of Labor
Latest Release: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/main.htm



Background
The Jobless Claims Report is a weekly release that shows the number of first-time (initial) filings for state jobless claims nationwide. The data is seasonally adjusted, as certain times of the year are known for above-average hiring for temporary work (harvesting, holidays).

Due to the short sample period, week-to-week results can be volatile, so reported results are most often headlined as a four-week moving average, so that each week's release is the average of the four prior jobless claims reports. The release will show which states have had the biggest changes in claims from the previous week; the revised edition shows up about a week later, at which time a full breakdown by state and U.S. territory is available.

Also released with this report are the relatively minor data points of the insured unemployment rate and the total unemployed persons. These are not seen as valuable indicators because the total unemployed figure tends to stay relatively constant week to week. (To learn more, read Surveying The Employment Report.)

What it Means for Investors
New jobless claims for the week reflect an up-to-the-minute account of who is leaving work unexpectedly, reflecting the "run rate" of the economy's health with little lag time. The Jobless Claims Report gets a lot of press due to its simplicity and the theory that the healthier the job market, the healthier the economy: more people working means more disposable income, which leads to higher personal consumption and gross domestic product (GDP).

The fact that jobless claims are released weekly is both a blessing and a curse for investors; sometimes the markets will take a mid-month jobless claims report and react strongly to it, particularly if it shows a difference from the cumulative evidence of other recent indicators. For instance, if other indicators are showing a weakening economy, a surprise drop in jobless claims could slow down equity sellers and could actually lift stocks, even if only because there isn't any other more recent data to chew on.

A favorable Jobless Claims Report can also get lost in the shuffle of a busy news day, and hardly be noticed by Wall Street at all. The biggest factor week to week is how unsure investors are about the future direction of the economy.




Most economists agree that a sustained change (as shown in the moving averages) of 30,000 claims or more is the benchmark for real job growth or job loss in the economy. Anything less is deemed statistically insignificant by most market analysts.

Strengths:

•Weekly reporting provides for timely, almost real-time snapshots.
•As a tightly-presented release, investors can easily pick up the raw release and quickly apply the information to market decisions.
•Initial claims are provided gross and net of seasonal adjustments, and give a breakdown for every state's individual results.
•Some states' figures are shown along with a comment from that state's reporting agency regarding specific industries in which noteworthy activity is happening, such as "fewer layoffs in the industrial machinery industry".

Weaknesses:

•Summer and other seasonal employment tends to skew the results.
•Highly volatile - revisions to advance report can be very big on a percentage basis
•Jobless claims in isolation tell little about the overall state of the economy.
•No industry breakdowns are provided, just the national figure.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/joblessclaims.asp