Showing posts with label tenaga. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tenaga. Show all posts

Thursday 30 August 2012

Tenaga - Return on Retained Earnings

Tenaga
Year DPS EPS Retained EPS
2002 4.7 22 17.3
2003 5.5 21.6 16.1
2004 8.4 28.2 19.8
2005 7.4 22.6 15.2
2006 8.5 34.9 26.4
2007 21.2 66 44.8
2008 11.9 47.2 35.3
2009 10.6 39.8 29.2
2010 12.5 46.8 34.3
2011 3.4 12.7 9.3
2012 10 E 60 E 50
Total 104.1 401.8 297.7
From 2002 to 2012
EPS increase (sen) 38.0
DPO 26%
Return on retained earnings  13%
(Figures are in sens)

Thursday 21 June 2012

Investor's Checklist: Utilities


Utilities are no longer the safe havens they once were.  Treat them with an appropriate amount of caution.

The competitive structure utilities must operate under is largely set at the state level.  Some states have gone far along the deregulation path; others have utilities that are fully regulated.  Keeping track of changing regulations in different states can be maddening, but it is necessary to understand the sector.

Regulated utilities tend to have wide economic moats because they operate as monopolies, but it is important to keep in mind regulation does not allow these firms to parlay this advantage into excess returns.  In addition, regulation can (and often does) change.

Another risk all utilities face - deregulated or not - is environmental risk.  Most power plants generate pollution of some kind.  Should environmental regulation tighten, costs could go up.

Utilities have a great deal of leverage, both operational and financial.  This is not so important for regulated firms, but it exponentially raises risk for companies facing increasing competition.

If you buy a utility for its dividend, make sure the firm has the financial wherewithal to keep paying it.

Utilities that operate in stable regulatory environments with relatively strong balance sheets while staying focused on their core businesses are the best bets in the sector.  

Ref:  The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey

Friday 23 December 2011

Malaysia's Petronas posts 54 pct profit rise; warns of 2012


KUALA LUMPUR | Thu Dec 1, 2011 5:40am EST

Dec 1 (Reuters) - Malaysia's state oil firm Petronas posted a 54 percent increase in second-quarter profit on Thursday, helped by better crude oil prices and a stronger dollar.
The company warned however, the trend would not continue into next year. Petronas' president and CEO, Shamsul Azhar Abbas, told reporters that higher market volatility stemming from the price of oil, the eurozone crisis and an uncertain American recovery would impact its bottomline.
"I will not be surprised if the second recession were to come next year," he said.
Petronas was on track to meet its full-year pretax profit forecast of 70 billion ringgit ($22.02 billion) to 75 billion ringgit ($23.60 billion) for its nine-month fiscal year ending Dec. 31, Shamsul added.
Petronas reported a second-quarter net profit of 18.3 billion ringgit, which was 53 percent higher than the 11.9 billion ringgit from a year ago.
At the same time, Petronas said it was looking to cast a wider net around oil and gas assets in the region and has put in a bid for exploratory rights in Myanmar's on-shore blocks.
"At the moment in Myanmar we are only offshore and the business has been quite good," executive vice president of exploration and production, Wee Yiaw Hin said. "There has been recently a bid on the onshore block and we are looking at opportunities to go onshore in Myanmar."
Wee said the bidding process will end some time next year. He added that he was not aware of any other Malaysian companies bidding for the same blocks.
Petronas is facing depleting oil and gas reserves in Malaysia and has stepped up its deep-water exploratory activities as well as re-exploring marginal fields.
Meanwhile, Shamsul said Petronas was contemplating entering Japan's power industry because of the island nation's commitment to reduce its dependency on nuclear power.
Petronas bought a 30 percent stake in Singapore power concern GMR Energy (Singapore) Pte Ltd, which was its first foray into the international power business.
NORMALISATION OF GAS SUPPLY
Shamsul said Petronas has taken a number of steps to normalise the supply of natural gas in Malaysia, which has crippled the power production sector in the country.
A disruption in the supply of gas since the second quarter of this year has forced national power producer Tenaga Nasional to switch to more expensive alternative fuels.
Shamsul said Petronas would help pay for a third of the additional fuel cost incurred from the gas shortage but "would not fund inefficiencies."
"We need to ascertain from Tenaga whether (the additional fuel cost is) 3 billion ringgit...and not due to their own inefficiencies. We are not prepared to fund inefficiencies," Shamsul said.
He said the company was in the planning stages of building another regassification plant in Lumut, Perak, in addition to two plants already under construction.
The regassification plant in Melaka is expected to come online in the second half of 2012.
Shamsul said the gas supply disruption in Malaysia was expected to continue until the Melaka plant was in operation. Malaysia's energy minister had earlier said that the disruption would last "two to three months."
Petronas was also fast-tracking the construction of two floating natural gas production plants in East Malaysia, which will come online by 2016.
($1 = 3.1785 Malaysian ringgit) (Reporting by Min Hun Fong)

Malaysia eyes first gas in 2013 for $5.1 bln project


Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:57am EDT

* Petronas to develop nine offshore marginal gas fields
* Will also build a 200 km pipeline to transport gas
* Says subsidised gas prices have curbed investment
* Says offshore production facilities running at full capacity 
By Niluksi Koswanage
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 23 (Reuters) - National energy company Petronas will develop a $5.1 billion gas project off Malaysia's east coast with first delivery expected in two years, helping to bolster the country's slowing output and meet soaring power demand.
The North Malay Basin project was unveiled on Tuesday as the Southeast Asian gas exporter faces a shortage due to frequent maintenance shutdowns, forcing state utility Tenaga Nasional to import costly fuels for power generation.
The new project comprises nine discovered gas fields about 300 kilometres (186 miles) off the east coast of peninsula Malaysia. Petronas will also develop a 200 km pipeline to transport the gas from the fields to Terengganu state.
The project is part of a greater drive to secure gas including that with high CO2 content and from marginal domestic fields, as well as taking stakes in overseas fields with an eye for LNG production.
Petronas recently made two other gas discoveries in shallow waters off the Borneo coast, and inked preliminary deals with Qatargas to supply 1.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually over 20 years.
"Petronas expects the additional volume of gas from the North Malay basin project would help sustain supply to its customers in peninsula Malaysia," it said in a statement.
"The project, which entails numerous upstream commitments, is expected to encourage more investments by industry players."
Petronas and its production sharing partners will accelerate the process with first delivery of 100 million standard cubic feet (mmscfd) of gas per day expected by 2013, ramping up to 250 mmscfd by 2015, the company said.
It did not name its partners in the project but Petronas has previously inked production sharing contracts (PSCs) with the likes of oil majors Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L).
Shares in Petronas Gas , which controls the gas production facilities and pipelines in the country, rose 0.5 percent to 13.5 ringgit by midday.
LOW GAS PRICES CURB INVESTMENT
Gas demand from Malaysia, the world's No.2 LNG exporter behind Qatar but fell to third place last year, has risen by more than 30 percent thanks to regulated domestic prices that are significantly lower than global market rates.
Prime Minister Najib Razak's government has pledged to raise gas prices every six months, making it more economically feasible to industry players to invest in developing marginal gas fields such as the North Malay Basin project.
"The planned price reform measures will benefit Malaysia by stimulating upstream investment off the peninsular and provide the long-term price signal to ensure security of supply by attracting LNG as well," said Graham Taylor, analyst with Wood Mackenzie in Singapore.
Petronas is scheduled to complete a 3 billion ringgit regasification terminal with an annual capacity of 3.5 million tonnes on mainland Malaysia by the middle of next year. It is studying plans for the second terminal.
Petronas also has long asked for the government to allow it raise gas prices in order to reduce the hefty annual subsidies of about 18-19 billion ringgit it pays out.
"These subsidised gas prices have resulted in minimal investments in the exploration and development of gas projects by oil and gas players, constraining growth in supply capacity," the company said.
"Compounding this tight situation, Malaysia's offshore production facilities have been running at full capacity, exerting tremendous pressure on gas production systems."
Last week, Tenaga Nasional bought 130,000 tonnes of fuel oil for power generation, the third time it has bought large volumes this year, at higher price levels.
The purchases, which started in the second quarter, have been due to a prolonged gas shortage that has resulted in the country's power sector receiving a third less of its allocation by Petronas. ($1 = 2.970 Ringgit) (Additional reporting by Rebekah Kebede in PERTH; Editing by Liau Y-Singand Ramthan Hussain)



Malaysia's Tenaga may buy gas from open markets in 2012-report


KUALA LUMPUR | Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:31pm EST

Dec 14 (Reuters) - Malaysia's state utilities firm Tenaga Nasional may start to source gas from the international markets next year to make up for a shortfall in supply for power generation, the New Straits Times reported on Wednesday.

The paper quoted Tenaga President and Chief Executive Officer Che Khalib Mohamad Noh as saying the firm was in talks with oil majors such as Shell, Malaysia's national oil company Petronas, and private suppliers to get the best market price for gas.

The plan to source gas from the open market will be subject to approval from the government that has kept gas and electricity tariff levels low for consumers.

Tenaga officials could not be immediately reached for comment on the report.

Tenaga buys gas from Petronas at a subsidised price of 13.70 ringgit ($4.31) per million metric British thermal units (mmBtu), compared to 30 to 40 ringgit in the open markets.

That has required Petronas to fork out 20 billion ringgit annually to maintain tariff rates.

The latest move to buy gas comes as Petronas cut its subsidised gas allocation to Tenaga due to a domestic shortage, forcing the power company to import expensive distillates that have eaten into its profits.

But in early December, Tenaga said the government agreed to implement a fuel cost sharing mechanism to share extra costs incurred from buying distillates and other expensive fuels to offset the gas shortage.

The costs would be shared between Tenaga, Petronas and the government.




UPDATE 1-Malaysia's Tenaga seeks 100,000 T Nov fuel oil



Fri Oct 7, 2011 7:53am EDT
By Yaw Yan Chong
Oct 7 (Reuters) - Malaysia's national power utility, Tenaga Nasional , has issued a tender seeking 100,000 tonnes of November-delivery fuel oil after buying similar volumes for this month, traders said on Friday.
The utility started buying large volumes of fuel oil regularly from the second quarter of this year and is expected to continue doing so until early next year, because the country's power sector has been receiving only two-thirds of its natural gas allocation from Petronas .
"They will probably have to pay more for their cargoes this time round, given the severely imbalanced state of the market currently," a Singapore-based Western trader said.
The utility is seeking four 20,000 tonne parcels and two 12,500 tonne lots of low 0.98 density, all for delivery Nov. 1-28 to Kapar in Selangor and Pasir Gudang in Johor, via the tender, which closes on Monday.
It last purchased a total of 105,000 tonnes, mostly from oil major Shell (RDSa.L), at premiums of $25-$30 a tonne to Singapore spot quotes on a free-on-board (FOB) basis.
So far, Tenaga has bought about 450,000 tonnes for April delivery onwards, mostly from Shell and European trader Mercuria.
Tenaga's demand, regarded as unexpected and irregular before April, is expected to squeeze the market for low-density cargoes, which is already tight due to a seven-month high in Western arrivals at 3.9-4.0 million tonnes for this month, leading to severe quality imbalances.
Reflecting this, the market's prompt structure has been severely backwardated for about the past three weeks since the start of the October pricing month, with October/November at seven-month highs of above $9 a tonne for the past week.
Tenaga had earlier said it has spent 400 million ringgit ($134.4 million) a month to buy power-generation fuel, draining its cash flow and eating into its reserves.
Petronas usually allocates 1,350 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of gas to the power sector. Supply has fallen below 1,000 mmscfd since the start of 2011 and now hovers between 900-950 mmscfd.
In its third-quarter financial results, Tenaga posted a net loss after it spent an additional 1.3 billion ringgit on fuel. (Editing by Jane Baird)






Malaysia's Tenaga seeks Nov fuel oil, continues rare purchase


SINGAPORE | Fri Oct 7, 2011 6:59am EDT
Oct 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian power utility Tenaga Nasional has issued a tender seeking 100,000 tonnes of fuel oil for November, after buying similar volumes for this month, traders said on Friday.
The utility is seeking four 20,000-tonne parcels and two 12,500-tonne lots of low-0.98-density. All are for delivery Nov. 1-28 to Kapar in Selangor and Pasir Gudang in Johor. The tender closes on Monday.
It only started buying large volumes of fuel oil regularly from the second-quarter this year, and is expected to continue doing so till early next year, because Petronas has cut natural gas allocation to the country's power sector by a third. (Reporting by Yaw Yan Chong; Editing by Manash Goswami)

MIDCAP-Utilities sector tops analysts' revision in Malaysia


Mon Dec 12, 2011 7:08am EST
Dec 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's utilities are seeing earnings upgrades by analysts and the sector tops Thomson Reuters StarMine's Analyst Revisions rankings in the south east Asian country with a high score of 80.
While analysts are upbeat on the country's utilities sector, they are bearish on the materials sector, which has the lowest score of 24.
This indicates that analysts are expecting defensive sectors such as utilities to perform better than cyclical stocks, which include metals and mining companies.
Malaysia's national power producer Tenaga Nasional has the best Analysts Revision Model (ARM) score of 97 among its peers. Since Nov. 29, seven out of 21 analysts have raised their earnings estimate on the company by an average of 33.2 percent for the year ending August 2012.
On the other hand, steel producer Lion Industries Corporation Bhd has the worst ARM score of 1 in Malaysia's Materials sector. Since Nov. 30, two out of four analysts have cut their EPS estimates on the company by an average of 30.5 percent for the year ending June 2012.
CONTEXT
Malaysia's Tenaga says to share additional fuel cost with government, Petronas.
StarMine's Analyst Revisions model is a percentile ranking of stocks based on changes in analyst sentiment, with 100 representing the highest rank. This model tracks analysts' upward revisions in earnings and revenue estimates and rating changes.
On its Intrinsic Valuation model, StarMine adjusts for the usually optimistic bias in analysts' EPS forecasts and then uses the resulting growth rate and dividends to determine the valuation. (Reporting by Patturaja Murugaboopathy; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

Thursday 25 August 2011

RM15bil Gas project to benefit TNB


Thursday August 25, 2011

RM15bil Gas project to benefit TNB

By LEONG HUNG YEE
hungyee@thestar.com.my

Increased supply to alleviate utility firm’s gas shortage in the longer term
PETALING JAYA: The RM15bil gas exploration project in the North Malay Basin, to be undertaken by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) and its production-sharing contract (PSC) partners, will benefit a number oil and gas companies as well as utility giant Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB).
Analysts said the project would provide a boost to the oil and gas industry as contracts would be dished out for the commissioning of the new project as well as the increase in gas volume for Petronas' customers.
A key customer is TNB, which has been facing prolonged gas shortage for months and is currently getting 30% less than it is supposed to. TNB said the gas curtailment exercise by Petronas had severely impacted its bottom line, prompting the company to issue a warning on its profitability and dividend payment.
The project will give assurance of supply in the longer term. But this will not solve the immediate gas shortage problem in the country. — SKR Research Head Chris Eng
On average, TNB was getting about 900 million standard cu ft per day (mmscfd), far from the usual rate of 1,250 mmscfd.
“It will be good for the industry. It means there will be more assurance of gas supply in the country. The project will give assurance of supply in the longer term. But this will not solve the immediate gas shortage problem in the country,” said OSK Research head Chris Eng.
A local bank-backed analyst said although the project would not solve the immediate gas shortage problem as the first gas was expected in 2013, the project was nevertheless a boost for Petronas customers.
“It remains to be seen how much gas will TNB get in the future, given the increase in gas capacity when the North Malay Basin project comes on stream,” he said.
Based on TNB's current gas power generation capacity, the volume needed is about 1,700 mmcfd. The power sector is entitled to about 1,350 mmscfd.
CIMB Research said the new project was a “positive development” forPetronas Gas Bhd, which would benefit from additional transport and processing revenues from 2013, when the first gas was expected.
The research house said Wah Seong Corp Bhd could also benefit from pipe-coating works.
OSK Research believes the first to benefit among the oil and gas support services providers would include fabricators (such as Kencana Petroleum Bhd and Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Bhd), pipe layers (SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd) and centralised tankage facilities operator Dialog Group Bhd.
The research house said there should be flow-through to vessel players like Perdana Petroleum BhdAlam Maritim Resources Bhd and Tanjung Offshore Bhd to transport the fabricated structures to the offshore platforms.
Subsequently, the hook-up and commissioning as well as brownfield service providers like Dayang Enterprise Holdings BhdPetra Energy Bhd and even Kencana may benefit from the initial set-up and maintenance activities on the platforms. KNM Group Bhd may also get some jobs for its process equipment segment even though the bulk of its sales are from outside Malaysia.
OSK Research analyst Jason Yap said the main objective of the project was to “help sustain the supply of gas” to Petronas customers in Peninsular Malaysia.
“And, in doing so, Petronas would be able to benefit from the recently introduced incentives by the Government, particularly for the development of marginal fields, high carbon dioxide gas fields and fields located in high-pressure, high-temperature conditions.
“Also, with the gradual revision of gas prices to domestic customers by the Government, this helps to make the project more economically feasible for Petronas and its PSC contractors,” Yap said.
On Tuesday, Petronas said it was embarking on the North Malay Basin upstream project to extract gas from fields off Peninsular Malaysia.
Petronas said the project comprised nine discovered gas fields within Blocks PM301 and PM302 and in the Bergading contract area, about 300km off the peninsula's coast.
“It will also involve the development of a new 200km pipeline to transport gas from the fields to Kertih, Terengganu. The project is estimated to cost RM15bil.
“Petronas and its PSC partners are undertaking the project on an accelerated basis. First delivery of 100 million mmscfd is expected by early 2013, ramping up to 250 mmscfd by 2015,” it said.

Tuesday 19 April 2011

OSK maintains 'hold' call on Tenaga

OSK maintains 'hold' call on Tenaga
Published: 2011/04/19

Higher coal costs and weak electricity sales in the first half of Tenaga Nasional Bhd''s (TNB) 2011 financial year are likely to weaken the company''s second quarter results to be announced on Thursday.

"Supported by high crude oil prices, coal costs remain persistently high with Newcastle coal at over US$120 per tonne despite a temporary weaker demand due to Japan''s natural calamities," OSK Research said in a research note today.

It expected TNB''s first half electricity sales growth to be weak given that sales for the five-month period from Sept 1, 2010 to Jan 31, 2010 in Peninsular Malaysia grew by only 3.8 per cent year-on-year.

Hence, OSK maintained a hold call on TNB.

"We have downgraded financial year 2011 earnings by 17 per cent to RM2.4 billion due to the raising of our coal assumption by US$10 per tonne to US$110 per tonne in the absence of any off-setting tariff rate increase," OSK Research said.

Currently, the research house said, the greater risk to TNB''s earnings stemmed from the rise in fuel costs and the timing of an electricity tariff hike to offset the higher costs.

Echoing the view that second quarter results would experience a decline, Kenanga Research said further erosions to earnings would eat into TNB''s RM9.2 billion cash pile which is dedicated for several reasons, including repayment of debts and future power plant projects. - BERNAMA


Read more: OSK maintains 'hold' call on Tenaga http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20110419133621/Article/index_html#ixzz1JyomhAv9

Tuesday 18 January 2011

Tenaga chief says nuclear energy option as coal price spikes up

Tenaga chief says nuclear energy option as coal price spikes up
Written by Bernama
Saturday, 15 January 2011 20:31

KUALA LUMPUR: The recent flooding catastrophe in Australia that pushed up the coal price, further justifies the need for Malaysia to seriously consider nuclear power to generate electricity, TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] (TNB)president and chief executive officer, Datuk Seri Che Khalib Mohamad Noh said.

"Due to the shortage of gas in the country, we have diversified our electricity generation to include coal. Now that there is bad whether in Australia and Kalimantan, as well as severe cold in the Northern hemisphere, the demand for coal, has suddenly shot up but supply is limited.

"There is also a lot of expansion of coal plants elsewhere and all this has combined to cause coal price to spike up by more than 50% over the last six months," he said on Satursday, Jan 15.

Coal accounts for 40% of Tenaga's power generation source.

AmResearch in its recent report said, based on the current price that is hovering above US$100 per tonne and the US/RM exchange rate, Tenaga's net profit for financial years 2011 to 2013, could drop by between 28% to 29%.

Tenaga purchased 17% of its annual coal requirement of 18 million tonnes in financial year 2010 from Australia, 71% from Indonesia and 11% from South Africa, said the research house.

Coal accounted for 48% of Tenaga's 2010 financial year fuel cost.

"We estimate that a US$10 increase per tonne in coal costs above our average coal cost projection, could shave Tenaga's 2011 financial net profit by 18%," it explained.

Hence, Che Khalib said, it is timely for the government to seriously look into generating electricty from nuclear power.

"The safety measures, record and TECHNOLOGY [] for nuclear power plants today are far better than that 30 years ago," he added.

He also said that, as the country’s largest power producer, TNB supports the government’s initiative to establish the Nuclear Power Corporation, as the country can now seriously look into an alternative avenue.

"It is not that we are forcing the country to accept the alternative but we seriously need to look at it and if suitable, be implemented as soon as possible," said Che Khalib.

He also said TNB as an utility company has an interest in supporting the government as the plan is to have the first nuclear plant by year 2021.

"TNB wants secure power generation within the next 10 years and it has to have nuclear power as part of the mix," he added. - Bernama

Friday 14 January 2011

A Brief Look at Tenaga National Berhad

Tenaga Nasional Berhad

Business Description:
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) is engaged in the business of the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity. The Company operates through three divisions:

  1. Generation Division, 
  2. Transmission Division and 
  3. Distribution Division. 
The Company also manages and operates a transmission network-the National Grid. Spanning the peninsular, the grid links TNB power stations and IPPs to the distribution network. The grid is also interconnected to Thailand's transmission system in the North and Singapore's transmission system in the South. TNB is also involved in diversified activities linked to the power industry. Through its subsidiaries, the Company is in the manufacture of transformers, high voltage switchgears and cables; the provision of professional consultancy services; architectural, civil, electrical engineering works and services, repair and maintenance; as well as in research and development; property development, and management services.



YEAR  DPS    EPS
2000     5.8    52.6
2001     5.7    43.5
2002     5.9    27.4
2003     6.9    27.0
2004   10.5    35.2
2005     9.3    28.3
2006   10.6    43.6
2007   26.5    82.5
2008   14.8    59.1
2009   11.0    49.7
2010   26.0    73.74  NTA 6.612

(The DPS, EPS and NTA above were before the 2011 1 for 4 Bonus issue.  To adjust to post bonus issue numbers, multiply each by 4/5.)


Current Price (7/1/2011): 6.54
2010 Sales 30,320,100,000
Employees: 29,149
Market Cap: 35,647,530,650
Shares Outstanding: 5,450,692,760
Closely Held Shares: 2,699,667,906




Announcement
Date
Financial
Yr. End
QtrPeriod EndRevenue
RM '000
Profit/Lost
RM'000
EPSAmended
28-Oct-1031-Aug-10431-Aug-107,869,400389,0008.94-
14-Jul-1031-Aug-10331-May-107,723,3001,109,30025.51-
20-Apr-1031-Aug-10228-Feb-107,389,1001,001,50023.05-
20-Jan-1031-Aug-10130-Nov-097,338,300697,50016.28-


Estimated EPS for 2011 = 2*(8.94 + 25.51)*(4/5) = 68.9*(4/5) = 55.12 sen #
Projected PE for 2011 = 6.54 / 0.5512 = 11.9 x

# adjusted for the 2011  1/4 Bonus

Historical
5 Yr
PE range 12.6 - 18.7
DY range 2.1% - 1.4%

10 Yr
PE range 17.0 - 24.1
DY range 1.6% - 1.1%




Capital Changes
2006  1/4 Bonus
2011  1/4 Bonus