Tuesday 9 April 2013

‘Go big or go home’ – how to make it in business


‘Go big or go home’ – how to make it in business

Alastair Mitchell, CEO and co-founder of Huddle, a collaboration platform in the Cloud, offers his top 10 tips for would-be entrepreneurs.

RBS Inspiring Youth Enterprise helps young people to develop enterprise skills, explore markets and start up in business
10 of the best: Huddle CEO Alastair Mitchell offers sound business advice 
Find out how RBS is helping young entrepreneurs at Inspiring youth Enterprise
Life as an entrepreneur is like being on a roller coaster that just won’t stop. There are breathless, stomach-churning twists and turns, and you can go from feeling like Richard Branson to Del Boy in the same day. Much of the time it can be hard to feel like you are in control, certainly when your business starts to get noticed and momentum gathers.
Since I founded Huddle, the leader in enterprise cloud collaboration and content management, back in 2006 with Andy McLoughlin, I’ve felt like that on numerous occasions. In just over four years, Huddle has grown from a bedroom start-up with a team of just two – and, yes, that was Andy and me – to a 100-strong business with offices in London and San Francisco that competes (and wins) head-to-head with Microsoft.
Getting to this point has been exciting, exhilarating and exhausting at times, but all the more rewarding for it. Setting up your own company comes with its fair share of trials and tribulations and can be massively daunting here in the United Kingdom. The UK is an incredible country in many ways, but I’m not always convinced that it is as supportive of entrepreneurs as it could be, particularly when compared to the US. That’s not a criticism of government, but more a general observation about the culture surrounding start-ups and entrepreneurs.
In the US, and in San Francisco especially, people are encouraged to become entrepreneurs; there is a support network for people to tap into, ask questions of and get advice from. Even the biggest and most successful entrepreneurs take the time out to pass on their experiences and act as a mentors.
So, in the spirit of sharing the entrepreneurial wisdom, here are the 10 most useful tips I’d like to impart to all the aspiring young entrepreneurs out there.
1. Spend as much time as possible researching your idea
You need to look at what is out there already, what might be in the pipeline and see if there really is a market for your idea. Your friends and family might not necessarily be the best people to bounce an idea off either – unless you come from a family of entrepreneurs, of course. Try and find a mentor in a non-competing business that can give you a steer in the right direction and some objective advice.
2. Concentrate on building the best product that you can – be uncompromising in your vision
There are too many bad products in the world, so do your utmost to make sure yours isn’t one of them. Take feedback on board from as many trusted advisers as you wish, but don’t dilute your vision too much. Andy and I set out with the clear goal of helping people work better together, and that remains the foundation of what we do to this day.
3. Get customers involved early
They can provide good feedback, the comfort factor for prospects and proof that there is something tangible to your business for potential investors. Whether it’s an in-depth case study, press release to send to the media or just a quick one-line testimonial for the website, having a customer willing to say “we use this and we love it” is as powerful a marketing message as one could wish for.
4. Be ruthless from the off
It’s not a problem to give away a chunk of your business as you get started – but be mindful of how much it is worth and be ruthless from the very first day. Even at the beginning, you need to be firm and strong when negotiating and doing deals. If you let people walk all over you, you’ll set a precedent from that point onwards for people to take advantage of you and get the upper hand in any negotiations.
5. Go big or go home
I’m a massive believer in reaching for the skies, both in life and in business – who on Earth wants to set up the sixth most successful company? So you need to be convinced that your business is going to be successful, otherwise convincing other people of that fact will be an uphill struggle.
6. First impressions can only be made once
You can’t underestimate the importance of a successful launch. If people perceive you to be a successful, on-the-up and a business with a buzz about it, then more often than not that will become a reality. Use PR, social media, analyst relations (for techie businesses), DM, email and Google AdWords; copy elements of other successful launches you may have seen; and do not be afraid of spending money to get the desired results – it will be money very well spent.
7. Take advantage of all your connections and network, network, network
Your network of contacts is extremely important and will prove invaluable when you’re looking to expand your team and gain feedback on your product or service. Take advantage of every single connection, as help can come from the most unlikely places. My first boss was Huddle’s original angel investor, and this initial funding helped us get started. Online networking has never been easier, with Twitter, LinkedIn and others, but that should be in addition to, not instead of, face-to-face networking. There is no substitute for meeting people in the flesh.
8. Surround yourself with the very best people
I know about marketing, have some experience in marketing and have very strong ideas about marketing my business. But I am not a marketer. I soon realised that as Huddle grew I needed to get the very best people in their respective disciplines to help maintain that growth. So whether it is PR, marketing, HR, accounting or other, don’t try and wing it yourself and only hire the best.
9. Raising money is a job in itself
When you are out and about, pressing investor flesh and running through your “show me the money” presentation for the umpteenth time, who is running your business? Raising cash from investors can be a full-time job, and you can’t afford to take your eye off the ball when it comes to the day job. So don’t – use external resources where you need to.
10. Keep the faith
It’s an oft-quoted fact that most companies that go out of business do so in the first year of trading. Once you’ve survived that, you’ll be in a position to build and grow. But don’t worry if things are taking twice as long as they should be and you think cash is running out. It probably is. But that’s normal - ride it through, don’t get distracted from your vision and everything will turn out ok. And even if it doesn’t you’ll be in for a hell of a ride.

Monday 8 April 2013

The various interpretations for the P/E value

There are various interpretations for the P/E value and this is just one of them:

*N/A: A company with no earnings has an undefined P/E ratio. Companies with losses or negative earnings also fall under this category.
*0-10: This means that the company's earnings are declining. It could also mean an overlooked stock.
*10-17: This is the average healthy value
*17-25: This means that the stock is either overvalued or its earnings are increasing.
*25+: Such companies are expected to have high future growth in earnings.

It is important that investors note avoid basing a decision on this measure alone. The ratio is dependent on share price which can fluctuate according to changes in the market.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.ca/2009/11/what-does-pe-ratio-tell-you.html

Sunday 7 April 2013

Valuation Methods: How to value a business, a company or its shares

Investment Decisions and Fundamentals of Value



@ 6.47 min
Managers should invest in real assets and should not be involved in investing in financial assets which the shareholders can do on their own.


What is a Valuable Investment Opportunity?

  1. An investment worth more than it costs.
  2. An investment with a return greater than its opportunity cost of capital.

Why does an asset have value?
  1. An asset provides a return on investment in the form of future cash payments.
  2. When we make an investment, we are buying a cash flow stream.
  3. When we assess the value of an asset, we assess the value of its cash flow stream.

Asset valuation is the answer to the following question:
What is the PRESENT VALUE of a Future Cash Flow Stream?


@ 13 min
What determines the present value of a cash flow stream?
  1. Magnitude
  2. Timing
  3. Risk

@ 15 min
Risk of the cash flow stream
Consider 2 cash flows streams A and B
A pays $100 for certain.
B may pay as much as $100 but may pay as little as $60.

Choice:  Choose A
We are risk adverse.  A SAFE dollar is worth more than a RISKY dollar.

@ 17 min
Time Value of Money
Time value of money is the rate of exchange between present dollars and future dollars established in the financial market.
Time value of money is reflected in the rates of return available to all investors in the financial markets.


@ 18.30
Risk and Return Relationship
Safe dollars are more valuable than risky dollars
Risk averse investors prefer safe investments.
How do you induce risk averse investors to take a risky investment?
Risky investments must promise higher returns to induce investors to undertake them.
In the financial markets, investments are priced so that the higher the risk, the higher the expected return.
Risky investment's rate of return reflects a risk premium that rewards investors for taking on the investment's risk.
Investment's opportunity cost of capital is the return forgone on an investment in the financial market of comparable risk.
Riskier investments have higher opportunity costs of capital.

Rate of Return = Time Value of Money + Risk Premium
Rate of Return = Risk Free Rate + Risk Premium


@ 21.30
Value of an asset:
1.  Forecast the magnitude and timing of the cash flow stream over its economic life.
2.  Assess the risk of the cash flow stream.
3.  Value the cash flow stream given its magnitude, timing, and risk at its opportunity cost of capital.




Market Value and Rate of Return


@ 23 min
The cash flow stream's value is determined by the amount of money needed today to recreate its magnitude, timing, and risk in the financial market at its opportunity cost of capital.

@ 24.50
What is the investment's opportunity cost of capital?

PV = FV / (1+r)
The value of an investment asset is the money needed today to recreate its future cash flow stream in the financial market at its opportunity cost of capital (r).
The value of an investment asset is the present value of its future cash flow stream.


How much is the asset worth, and how much does it cost?
  • What is the value of the asset's future cash flow stream today, and how much does it cost?
  • What is its PRESENT VALUE, and how much does it cost?
  • What is the prevent value net of cost?
  • What is its NET PRESENT VALUE?
NPV = PV of Investment - Cost
A valuable investment opportunity is worth more than it costs.

@ 31 min
If 
NPV > 0, investment is worth more than it costs
NPV < 0, investment costs more than it is worth.
NPV =0, investment costs as much as it is worth.

NPV is the absolute dollar change in wealth from the acceptance of an investment opportunity.
Look for investment opportunities in those with positive NPV projects.


What is a valuable investment opportunity?
  1. An investment with a net present value greater than zero.
  2. An investment with a return greater than its opportunity cost of capital.

Investment Decision Rules
  1. Accept all investments with Net Present Values greater than Zero.
  2. Accept all investments with rates of return greater than their opportunity costs of capital.
@ 34 min
Example using the Net Present Value Rule
NPV = PV - Cost 
> 0, therefore we accept the project.

@ 35 min
Example using the Rates of Return greater than their Opportunity Cost of Capital
Rate of Return = 20%.
Opportunity cost of capital = 12%.
Therefore, accept the project.

@ 36.50
You are considering an investment opportunity that costs $100,000 and promises to return 10%.
A comparable investment in the financial market returns 15%.
A bank offers to lend you $100,000 at 8% with no conditions.

Do you invest $100,000 in the investment opportunity?  NO.

Financing cost = 8%.
What is the investment's cost of capital? 15%.
The cost of capital is the return on comparable investments in the financial market, that is 15%.
The cost of capital is not the cost of raising the money to finance the investment.  That is a financing decision and not an investment decision.  
That return in the financial market is the standard against which other investment opportunities are evaluated.
The financing by the bank loan is irrelevant to the investment decision.

Investment decision and financing decision are separate and independent decisions.
First make the investment decision, after that, then make the financing decision.


Thanks for pointing this video out to me.
<  I found these very helpful : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtQKrPBz3XA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4q2Xcbrazhw on Financial Ratio Tutorial Anonymous on 4/7/13 >

Invest like Buffett - Hold on to your Winners Forever

Best holding period is holding forever.
Sell your losers, hold on to your winners.

SELL THE LOSERS, LET THE WINNERS RUN.
Losers refer NOT to those stocks with the depressed prices but to those whose revenues and earnings aren't capable of growing adequately. Weed out these losers and reinvest the cash into other stocks with better revenues and earnings potential for higher returns.




< I suggest this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVqyCRYBieI >
Newbie
on 4/7/13

Thanks to Newbie for highlighting this video to me.

Saturday 6 April 2013

WARREN BUFFETT THE BILLIONAIRE NEXT DOOR GOES GLOBAL

Bill Gates talking about Warren Buffett

The Truth About Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett and PetroChina - Great lessons for investors on how he selects, buys and sells a stock

Warren Buffett - This is Always a Bad Investment

Cash is always a bad investment. Cash has never produced anything, and its value will go down over time. We will always have cash around, but it's not good to have too much. You would much rather own a good business. Every currency will be worth less in the future. More money will be printed than there will be goods circulating in the economy.


@7.50

Warren Buffett - The Stock Market Casino

Warren Buffett on Gambling

Warren Buffett: "Why I always keep some cash in Berkshire Hathaway - at least $10 billion."

Wise Words From Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett Quotes on Life

GOLD is 4 suckers - Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, & CNBC join the war



Why Buffett does not like to invest in gold?
@ 6 min

Charlie Munger on Berkshire Hathaway

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BozFBR1owk

Warren Buffett How to Turn 40 into 5 Million



Buy an attractive business.
My biggest mistakes are those of omissions.
Better to learn from other people's mistakes.
Disagree but never argue.
Live life forward.
Important and knowable.
Important but not knowable.
Buffett's buying is not affected by macroeconomic factors.

HOW WARREN BUFFETT HEDGES HIMSELF AGAINST INFLATION



Good interview Buffett starts talking about how he hedges himself and what you can use to hedge yourself against inflation starting at 16.42

Friday 5 April 2013

Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway's Stock Price



@3 min

Warren Buffett - How to Identify a Good Investment


Top 20 Quotes from Warren Buffett

Charlie Munger on Investing

Charlie Munger Reveals Secrets to Getting Rich



@ 6 min

What is Portfolio Management anyway?


When to Sell: A Workshop with Ellis Traub
Session 1
What is Portfolio Management anyway?
Around the end of last year, a few of us were asked to contribute a list of five stocks we thought would be good investments and to comment on the reasons we thought they would be. I did so but, unfortunately, I got so wrapped up in other things that I forgot all about them. So I’m in the embarrassing position of having to lead this discussion off with the admonition, “Do as I say and not as I do!”
In any event, the best I can hope for is a) you’ll accept this as an example of why you should pay attention to what’s ahead, and b) I’ll be able to demonstrate in the months ahead how you can greet such a challenge and turn things around. That disclaimer out of the way, let’s get at it.
Although most of the fun of investing surrounds the acquisition of your stocks, the fact is that buying them is only a half of what investing’s all about. The other half—for a variety of reasons we’ll discuss in a moment—is considered by most of us as being pretty much of a drag! Yet, there’s as much or more potential benefit is to be derived from managing your portfolio as from buying the right stocks in the first place.
What I intend to do in the next few days is to address all the reasons why we don’t do it very well—if we do it at all—and to expose those reasons for what they are: insufficient excuses. In the next five lessons, I hope to make it clear that we no longer have a leg to stand on for not doing what we need to do; and, with any luck at all, I might even persuade you it can be fully as much fun as the stuff we do to select our companies for investment.
You know, just the term, “Portfolio Management,” is pretentious …almost intimidating. It suggests that we have to put in hours of dedicated and tedious work, and it suggests that it’s much more complicated than it really is. So let’s set the record straight here by first understanding what Portfolio Management really is; and start that process by explaining what it’s not.
Portfolio Management is definitely not Portfolio Tracking. If you think that regularly looking at our portfolios to see how the prices are doing, and whether or not they’re making money, is managing our portfolios, fuggedaboudit! Portfolio tracking, at best, is merely checking to see how good or poor a job of managing our portfolios we’re doing. It has nothing to do with the actual task of managing our holdings. In fact, as you’ll see down the road in this workshop, portfolio tracking can be one of the more insidious things that can work against sound portfolio management.
No, Portfolio Management is a pro-active activity that requires a certain amount of discipline and dedication. Its purpose is simply to catch our losers before they damage our portfolios’ performances, and to maintain our average estimated return at as close to 15 percent as possible so we can meet our objective or doubling our money every five years.
When an issue seems complicated, what’s the easiest way to cut it down to size? It’s to break it down into its smallest parts. In this case, that’s easy! Once we own a stock or stocks, there are only two things we can possibly do with them: either hold onto them or sell them.
Since we already hold them, we are left with only one decision to make; and that is simply when to sell them. So Portfolio Management is nothing more than making that determination: when to sell them. That’s all there is to it!
More than “when,” why we would sell them is the important issue. As long-term investors, the most important thing that distinguishes us from “the herd”—those who trade or try to make money in the market in the short term—is the definition of “long-term.” We buy stocks not to hold until they reach a target price, not for a month, not even for five years. We buy them to hold forever! …unless—and here is where I can go another step further in making it simpler for you—unless one of three, and only three, conditions come to pass:

  1. We want or need the money,
  2. The Quality deteriorates (Defensive strategy: SSG Sections 1 & 
  3. The potential Return deteriorates (Offensive strategy: SSG Sections 3 – 5)
Indeed, these are the only three conditions that would warrant your selling a stock.
So, “When to sell” (Portfolio Management) means watching our holdings to see whether any of them meet conditions 2 or 3 in hopes that we can hold onto them until such time as we reach condition 1.
During the next five days, we’re going to discuss 1) all the excuses we have heard for not doing the job; 2) why you can no longer use them for excuses; 3) the basics of defensive portfolio management, 4) the basics of offensive portfolio management, and 5) the tools we have at our disposal to make the task even simpler.
http://www.stockcentral.com/tabid/143/forumid/289/postid/3523/view/topic/Default.aspx

A 5% return may end up being a better deal than a 20% return.

If one is able to get a 5% return in a month, we could argue that it is a better investment than one that earns us a 20% return over a two-year period.

The reason for this is that a 5% rate of return in a month is arguably the equivalent of getting a yearly rate of return of 60% (5% x 12 = 60%). 

Likewise, a 20% return at the end of two years is arguably the same as only getting a 10% yearly rate of return.  (20% / 2 years = 10%).

Of course, this argument is premised on being able to reallocate the capital that we had out at 5% for a month, at attractive rates in the preceding months. 

But in theory, if you could reallocate your capital 5 times over a two-year period and each time earn 5% a month, it would still produce better results than getting a 20% return at the end of a two-year period.  

The certainty of the deal is important.  This allows for a quick and certain return

Buffett: 'Business is coming back' (How to write an Annual Report)



@25 min: How to write an annual report.

Importance of Financial Education and Knowledge in Investing in the Stock Market

The tragedy is that people work so hard to earn money, and then they lose so much of it on the stock market because they haven’t taken the relatively simple steps to educate themselves about it.

First rule of Buffett: Do not lose money.


April 4, 2013
Mom and pop: The world’s worst investors
Commentary: They buy high, sell low, and the ending is predictable

By Brett Arends
Oh, brother.

I don’t know Mark Villa and Lucie White, a pair of doctors in Houston, Texas, who were featured in a big story in our sister publication, The Wall Street Journal, a few days ago.

And I wish them all the best.

But when I read the story about them, and other “mom and pop” investors rushing to jump back into the booming stock market, a few words crossed my mind.

The more printable ones included “Uh-oh” and “Doom.”

You know how, when you get older, the movies just get so predictable you can hardly bear to go any more? Within the first five minutes you can already tell how the whole story is going to end.

So I’m sorry, but when I read “Mom and Pop Run With the Bulls,” all I could think was, here we go again.

My Journal colleague Jonathan Cheng’s story tells you everything you need to know. Villa and White felt “sucker punched” when stocks collapsed in 2008, he reports. The crash “wiped out half their savings.” They sold out of stocks, put their money in the bank, and “swore off stocks,” presumably forever.

Last month, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 index surged to new highs, they hired a new financial adviser and plunged into the stock market again.

The problem with Villa and White isn’t that they are unusual but that they are absolutely the typical American investor. Both of them are doctors, meaning they are presumably intelligent and educated. And yet they insist on investing like absolute fools.

First, their minds have been playing tricks on them all along. The crash of 2008 did not wipe out half their savings, unless they invested all their money right at the peak and sold right at the bottom. The reality is that it wiped out a lot of illusory gains and replaced them with a lot of illusory losses. Stock prices were wrong in 2007 because they were too high, and they were wrong in late 2008 and early 2009 because they were too low.

Second, as they now know, they sold out somewhere near the lows. They were not alone. According to the Investment Company Institute, the trade body of the mutual fund industry, U.S. investors flooded the market with stocks in the fall of 2008 and the winter of 2009. From September, 2008 through March, 2009, ordinary U.S. investors dumped $114 billion worth of stock funds. They sold at absolutely the worst time.

This is not a coincidence. The stock market is “us.” Share prices fall because there are more sellers than buyers. They rise because of the reverse. So mom and pop investors like the Villa-Whites rush to dump their stocks because they see the market plummeting, oblivious to the fact that the only reason it’s falling is because people like them are rushing to dump their stocks.

And here we are in the opposite situation. The Investment Company Institute reports that mutual fund investors have pumped about $20 billion back into stock funds since the start of the year. Mom and pop investors across the country, just like the Villa-Whites, are rushing to buy stocks so they don’t “miss out” on big gains. The reality is that stocks have risen, in part, because people like them have rushed to buy stocks. And the more of them rush to buy stocks, the higher they drive the price.

Study after study has found the grim truth. People like the Villa-Whites end up losing money for years, even when the stock market has gone up, because they have sold at the wrong times and bought at the wrong times. They have consistently bought high and sold low. You could have made astonishing super-normal profits over the past thirty years just by selling stocks when Mom and Pop were buying, and buying stocks when Mom and Pop were selling.


Be like Buffett: Buy low and sell high.

Have you heard of Suicide Chess, a peculiar game where the rules are reversed and you try to lose all your pieces? Mom and pop investors like the Villa-Whites are playing Suicide Roulette.

The tragedy is that people like the Villa-Whites work so hard to earn money, and then they lose so much of it on the stock market because they haven’t taken the relatively simple steps to educate themselves about it.

There is no great mystery to the stock market. The longer I follow it, the less complicated it actually becomes. Buy stocks when they are cheap and everyone is afraid to own them. Don’t buy stocks when they are expensive and everyone is afraid of getting “left behind.” In other words, be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. This is no great insight — Warren Buffett keeps saying it. The Villa-Whites were selling their stocks around the time Buffett was buying — and telling everyone he was buying too.

But the message just gets lost.

There are reasons for that. They include the Federal Reserve’s policy of Forever Blowing Bubbles, which has played havoc with the idea of the sensible long-term investor. They also include the spreading influence of a cult called the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which downplays the importance of the actual price you pay for stocks. It is horrifying how many financial advisers have bought into the nonsense of the EMH, often without even understanding it.

In late 2008 and early 2009 I was tasked by The Wall Street Journal with finding good value stocks for people to buy. And my job was very easy. There were so many cheap stocks around you could scoop them up with a spoon. Indeed in October 2008 I described it as “shooting fish in a barrel.” I was six months early, but so what?

Today it is very hard to find stocks that look great value, especially here in the U.S. And people like the Villa-Whites are rushing to buy stocks before they go to infinity.

I fear I have seen this movie before.

Brett Arends is a MarketWatch columnist. Follow him on Twitter @BrettArends.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mom-and-pop-the-worlds-worst-investors-2013-04-04

BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY (Video)

BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

Warren Buffett has determined that companies which show great Strength and Predictability in Earnings Growth, especially those with Durable Competitive Advantage (DCA), can be seen as a kind of EQUITY BOND with a COUPON.


The company’s SHARE PRICE equates with the EQUITY BOND, and their PRETAX EARNINGS/SHARE equates with a Bond’s COUPON or INTEREST PAYMENT.

Therefore ....



EQUITY BOND = SHARE PRICE
BOND COUPON = PRETAX EARNINGS/SHARE

Durable Competitive Advantage
Throughout this presentation:
Durable Competitive Advantage is abbreviated to DCA

BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

The DIFFERENCE between a normal Bond’s Coupon Rate and an EQUITY BOND’s Coupon Rate is that the former’s rate remains static while the latter’s rate can increase yearly due to the inherent Positive Performance of a DCA company.



BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

This is how Buffett buys an Entire Business or a Partial Interest in a company via the Stock Market.


He interrogates its PRETAX EARNINGS and then determines if the purchase is a Good Deal relative to the ECONOMIC STRENGTH of the company’s underlying Economics and its ASKING PRICE.



The strong underlying Economics of DCA companies ensures a CONTINUING INCREASE in the company’s PRETAX EARNINGS which gives an Ongoing Increase in the EQUITY BOND’s COUPON RATE.

This results in the INCREASE in the VALUE of the EQUITY BOND and hence its SHARE PRICE.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(A) THE THEORY.

Here’s how Buffett’s Theory works ....


In the 1980’s Buffett bought Coca Cola shares for $6.50c against PRETAX EARNINGS of $0.70c/share.

Buffett saw this as buying an EQUITY BOND paying an INTEREST RATE of 10.7% (0.70/6.50) on his $6.50 investment.
Historically, Coca Cola’s Earnings had been increasing at an annual rate of about 15%.
Therefore he could argue that his 10.7% Yield would increase at a projected Annual Rate of 15%.



By 2007 Coca Cola’s PRETAX EARNINGS had grown at about 9.35%/annum to $3.96c/share.

Buffett now had an EQUITY BOND with a Pretax Yield of 61% (3.96/6.50) which could really only increase with time due to Coca Cola’s DCA “status”.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

From his own experience Buffett has determined that the Stock Market will price a DCA company’s EQUITY BOND at a level that approximately reflects the VALUE OF ITS EARNINGS RELATIVE TO THE YIELD ON LONG TERM CORPORATE BONDS.


This can be written as the following equation ....



EQUITY BOND = SHARE PRICE = COUPON RATE/LONG TERM CORPORATE BOND RATE (L.T.C.B.R.)



and .... COUPON RATE/(L.T.C.B.R.) = PRETAX EARNINGS/( L.T.C.B.R.)


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

Examples :-


(1) In 2007 The Washington Post had Pretax Earnings of $54/share = Coupon Rate.

The L.T.C.B.R. was about 6.5%.



EQUITY BOND = Coupon Rate/L.T.C.B.R. = $54/6.5% = $830/share.



In 2007 The Washington Post shares traded between $726 and $885 a share.



(2) In 2007 Coca Cola had Pretax Earnings of $3.96/share = Coupon Rate.

The L.T.C.B.R. was about 6.5%.



EQUITY BOND = Coupon Rate/L.T.C.B.R. = $3.96/6.5% = $61/share.



In 2007 Coca Cola shares traded between $45 and $64 a share.



(The following web site will give you values for Corporate Bond rates :-



BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

The stock market, seeing this ongoing return, will eventually revalue these EQUITY BONDS to reflect this increase in Value.


Because the Earnings of these companies are so consistent, they are also open to a LEVERAGED BUYOUT.



If a company carries little debt and has ongoing strong earnings, and its stock price falls low enough, another company will come in and buy it, financing the purchase with the acquired company’s earnings.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(B) DETERMINE SHARE PRICE.

ThereforeWHEN INTEREST RATES FALL, the company’s EARNINGS ARE WORTH MORE because they will SUPPORT MORE DEBT, which makes the company’s shares worth more.


Conversely, WHEN INTEREST RATES RISE, EARNINGS ARE WORTH LESS because they will SUPPORT LESS DEBT, making the company’s shares worth less.



In the end it is LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES that determines the Economic Reality of what Long-Term investments are worth.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

In Buffett’s world the PRICE you pay directly affects the RETURN on your INVESTMENT.


Therefore the MORE one pays for an EQUITY BOND the LOWER will be the INITIAL Rate of Return and also the LOWER the RATE OF RETURN on the company’s EARNINGS in, say, 10 years time.




BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

Example :-


In the late 1980’s Buffett bought Coca Cola for about $6.50c/share.

The company was earning about $0.46c/share after tax.
Initial Rate of Return = 0.46/6.50 = 7%.



By 2007 Coca Cola was earning $2.57c/share, after tax.

Rate of Return = 2.57/6.50 = 40%.



If he had originally paid, say, $21/share back in the 1980’s his Initial Rate of Return would only have been 2.2%, and this would have only grown to about 12% ($2.57/$21) 20 years later in 2007, which is a lot less than 40%!



Therefore the LOWER THE PRICE one pays for a DCA company the BETTER one will do OVER THE LONGER TERM.



SO WHEN DO YOU BUY INTO DCA TYPE COMPANIES ?


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

SO WHEN DO YOU BUY INTO DCA TYPE COMPANIES ?


One of the best times to buy into these companies is during BEAR MARKETS when the price of shares are generally depressed, in some cases due to no fault of a DCA type company but due to adverse Market conditions.



This is in line with Buffett’s creed that one should “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful”.





BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(C) WHEN TO BUY. 

SO WHEN DO YOU BUY INTO DCA TYPE COMPANIES ?


In addition, one can also buy into a DCA type company when its price is at a discount to the price obtained from the formula in (B) above ....

EQUITY BOND = SHARE PRICE = COUPON RATE/LONG TERM CORPORATE BOND RATE (L.T.C.B.R.)


and .... COUPON RATE/(L.T.C.B.R.) = PRETAX EARNINGS/( L.T.C.B.R.)




Once again, referring to Coca Cola, we see that ...



Pretax Earnings per Shares in the late 1980’s = $0.70c.

At that time the L.T.C.B.R. was about 7%.
That would give a “Market Valuation” = $0.70/7% = $10 per share.
Buffett bought it at $6.50c/share, a “discount” of 35%.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(D) WHEN TO SELL, OR NOT TO BUY.  

There are at least THREE occasions ...


(1) One can SELL when one needs the money to invest in an even BETTER company at a BETTER PRICE.



(2) One can SELL when, what was a DCA type company, is now losing its Durable Competitive Advantage.

Examples could be Newspapers and Television Stations which were great businesses until the advent of the Internet and the Durability of their Competitive Advantage could be called into question.


(3) One can SELL, or NOT BUY, during BULL MARKETS when the stock market often sends share prices through the ceiling. At these times the current selling price of a DCA’s stock often far EXCEEDS the long-term ECONOMIC REALITIES of the business.


BUFFETT’S 'EQUITY BOND' STRATEGY.

(D) WHEN TO SELL, OR NOT TO BUY.  

Eventually, these Economic Realities will pull the share price back down to earth.


In fact, it may be time to SELL when one sees P/E ratios of 40, or more, in these great companies.



To once again quote Buffett ... at these times, “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy”.

Reference




Warren Buffett's Interpretation of Financial Statements and Analysis

Warren Buffett's Interpretation of Financial Statements and Analysis




Warren Buffett's Interpretation of the Income Statement and Analysis



Warren Buffett's Interpretation of a Balance Sheet and Analysis



Warren Buffett's Interpretation of Cash Flows and Analysis






Thursday 4 April 2013

Can you feel proud of your representatives after listening to this video?

All these changes occurred over the recent years and only after 308!
It would have been more credible when these were never issues to be resolved.

“So what do I do with my money?”




IT'S A NEW WORLD OF INVESTING AND ONE QUESTION IS ON EVERYONE'S MIND:
“So what do I do with my money?”


So what do I do with my money? | Investing for a New World | BlackRock



The New World
Today’s markets are as uncertain as ever. But there is one certainty – that the future is coming. It may no longer be enough to simply preserve what you have today; you also have to build what you will need for tomorrow. So don’t put off speaking to your financial adviser. Isn’t it time to be an investor again?


"SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY?"

Start taking action. Build a more dynamic, diverse portfolio based on your goals, your investment time horizon and appetite for risk.

"So what do I do with my money?"

It’s no secret that some economies are struggling, but that doesn’t mean all companies are. Consider high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, robust business models, sound company management and attractive growth prospects in fast-growing areas of the world. Many of these companies also pay real and growing dividends, offering investors the flexibility to either draw their income to fund their lifestyle today or reinvest it to grow their total return in the long run.



All financial investments involve an element of risk. The value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Overseas investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavourable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume.

Investments in fixed interest securities such as corporate or government bonds pay a fixed or variable rate of interest and behave similarly to a loan. These securities are therefore exposed to changes in interest rates which will affect the value of any securities held. Companies which issue higher yield bonds typically have an increased risk of defaulting on repayments. In the event of default, the value of your investment may reduce. Economic conditions and interest rate levels may also impact significantly the values of high yield bonds. Under certain market conditions, liquidity in bond markets may fall significantly without warning. Therefore it may not be possible to sell a security at the last quoted price or at a value considered to be fair. In extreme market conditions, it may be difficult to realise your investments.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and index tracking mutual funds seek to track a benchmark and holdings are not altered during rising or falling markets. Some ETFs are optimised and therefore may not hold all securities within the benchmark index. Performance may differ from the underlying benchmark index. ETFs trade on exchanges intraday at the current market price which may differ from net asset value. Transaction or brokerage fees will apply. Liquidity is not guaranteed. Active and index tracking mutual funds can usually be accessed at a single valuation point each business day at net asset value adjusted for applicable dealing charges and fees.

Wednesday 3 April 2013

Smart Property Investing

The 7 Principles of Property Investment

Investment Basics: How To Start Investing With Little Or No Cash

How Penny Stocks work

Cartoon predicts the future 50 years ago. This is amazing insight!

Comparing Rates of Return using CAPM

Investing Basics: Futures

Ranking Stocks using the PEG Ratio



PEG = PE / EPS Growth Rate

PEG Ratio Key Points
1. Less reliable for large low-growth companies.
2. Estimates can differ from future realities.
3. Compare individual PEG Ratio to industry and market averages.
4. Beware of speculative and low-dollar stocks with low PEG Ratios.

Investing Basics: Stocks

Best Stocks to Buy & Picking your stock - Two rules of value Investing



Follow these 2 rules and you will find investing in stocks is very profitable and very enjoyable too.

Rule 1: Find a wonderful business to invest in.
Rule 2: Buy its stock at a discount.

Personal Finance by a leading Financial Planner for the Secondary School Students. Yes, educate them early.




Many intelligent people has no financial education.
This video is an excellent introduction to personal finance.
Well worth spending time to go through the 12 videos in a couple of hours which will benefit you for a lifetime in your financial planning and management.
You will learn the core knowledge of financial planning to accomplish your goals.

Define and set your goals.

Your goals should be SMART
Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Realistic
Time bound



Related:
Compounding
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2013/04/compound-interest.html

Human Resources: 'Social Engineering in the 20th Century'



Behaviour modification.
Behaviour is predictable, therefore it is controllable.
This world is driven not by love, but by fear.

Warren Buffett - The World's Greatest Money Maker

Tuesday 2 April 2013

How Rich Men Think and Act




Wealth Creation Formula:
The broke buy stuff.
The middle class buy liabilities.
The rich buy assets.

Compound Interest

The Six Important Financial Parameters



1.  EPS
2.  Operating Cash Flows
3.  Net Sales
4.  Book Value per Share (BVPS)
5.  Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
6.  Debt to Net Profit Ratio


Gold Standards
1 - 4 :  Growing at greater than 12% per year for 10 years
5.  >12% every year
6.  <3 br="" nbsp="">
Past Performance
Profit Margins (OPM & NPM)
Debt/Equity ratio
ROE
Working Capital Management

Having established the company's solid financial track record, now look at their competitive strength.

Unbreachable Moats - Sustainable competitive advantage

Introducing the Gurus & their Principles - Benjamin Graham

Passive Investing Theory: Investing versus Speculating

PetDag to issue special 35 sen dividend.

For its fourth quarter ending Dec 31, PetDag made RM176.5 million in net profit on RM 7.7 billion in revenue.

PetDag has proposed a special dividend payout of 35 sen per share, to be paid on April 30.  The ex-date falls on April 26.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/234653-petdag-to-issue-35-sen-dividend.html

CBIP subsidiary acquires land in Kapar

CBIP

A subsidiary of CBIP, Advance Boilers Sdn. Bhd, has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Vickers Hoskins (M) Sdn. Bhd. to acquire a 4.09 ha piece of land in Kapar, Selangor, for RM 35.98 million.

No valuation was done on the land, but we believe the price CBIP is paying - RM82.60 per sq. ft - is reasonable in line with average transaction values of land in the area of RM85 to RM90 psf.


http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/234670-cbips-boiler-operations-heating-up.html

Hot Stock - Nestle

Nestle's 3 year profit before tax compound annual growth rate to grow by 16.1% in financial year 2013.

Domestic consumption, which makes up an estimated 75% of sales, is expected to remain buoyant driving this growth.

There would be higher capital expenditure to help boost beverage and confectionery segments in 2013.

Sales are estimated to grow by 6% and 15% respectively for both these segments.

Cautious outlook on escalating raw material prices especially for cocoa butter and milk solids.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/234684-hot-stock-nestle-rises-22-sen-despite-ta-report.html

The Psychology of Human Misjudgement - Charlie Munger Full Speech

Secrets to successful investing

Secrets to successful investing.

1. Know the business well. Do you understand the business?
2. Know the intrinsic value of the business. Is it increasing its intrinsic value consistently?
3. Know the management. Are they with integrity?
4. Know the price. Is the company's price attractive, that is, undervalued?

It is just so simple, everyone can adopt these.

Making Millions The Easy Way (Documentary)



Gambling

Warren Buffett - The World's Greatest Money Maker