Wednesday 11 March 2015

Author of “The Millionaire Next Door” dies — 7 key insights from his book

You may not know the name Thomas Stanley, but chances are you’ve heard of “The Millionaire Next Door,” the blockbuster book Stanley cowrote in the mid-1990s.
Wealthy couple watching polo
The book sold more than two million copies and spawned a slew of spin-offs, including “Millionaire Minds” and “Millionaire Women Next Door.” Sadly, Stanley died last week at the age of 71 in a car accident near his home in Marietta, Ga. At the time of his death, he and his daughter, Sarah Fallaw, a psychologist, were working together on the latest iteration of the “Millionaire” series, with a fresh look at millionaires in post-recession America, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  
Although Fallaw said she would continue her father’s work posthumously, it will be a while before the results of their research are published.
In the meantime, we decided to crack open “The Millionaire Next Door” and revisit some of Stanley and co-author William D. Danko’s findings.
When the duo set out to create a composite of the modern American millionaire, they conducted their own survey of 1,000 high-net-worth individuals. At the time, Stanley was a professor of marketing at Georgia State University and Danko was Stanley’s former research assistant who would go on to become a marketing professor in his own right. What they found was that most millionaires shared seven key traits in common, all of which create a lifestyle “conducive to accumulating money,” they write:  
1. They live well below their means.

  • In their research, Stanley and Danko found most millionaires weren’t heavy spenders. 
  • The majority spent less than $200 on shoes and only half could justify paying more than $235 for a wristwatch. 
  • Another surprising finding: two-thirds of the millionaires they surveyed said they followed a household budget.
2. They allocate their time, energy and money efficiently, in ways conducive to building wealth. 

  • For example, the authors found that millionaires were more likely to invest time planning their household finances than, say, shopping for a car. 
  • On the flipside, most people would have a lot more fun allocating time comparing car prices than sitting down with a financial planner and figuring out how much more money they have to save to be able to stop working at a certain age.
3. They believe that financial independence is more important than displaying high social status

  • “They inoculate themselves from heavy spending by constantly reminding themselves that many people who have high-status artifacts, such as expensive clothing, jewelry, cars, and pools, have little wealth,” the authors wrote.  
4. Their parents did not provide “economic outpatient care.”

  • Millionaires rarely become millionaires in their own right if their parents are constantly financing their lives. 
  • Otherwise, they risk becoming too financially dependent to make their own way.
5. Their adult children are financially self-sufficient.

  • Teaching kids to be self-sufficient not only encourages them to create their own financial security but ensures that they won’t be draining their parents’ finances later on.
6. They are proficient in targeting market opportunities.

  • Essentially, the wealthy become wealthy often by targeting occupations that serve other wealthy people (that’s their “market”). 
  • That’s where the real money is, Stanley and Danko argue. Jobs that serve the wealthy — for example, estate planning, law, accounting — often come with bigger paychecks.
7. They chose the right occupation. 

  • The authors found that roughly half of the millionaires they interviewed owned a business of some sort, but the vast majority said they would not encourage their children to follow in their footsteps. 
  • Millionaire couples with children were five times more likely to send their children to medical school than other parents in America and four times more likely to send them to law school, according to their findings.

Stanley and Danko’s findings may still ring true today, but the audience couldn’t be more different. When the book was published in 1996, the economy was booming and most people we were blissfully unaware of the pending dot-com bubble and bust. And no one knew that in just over a decade, the Great Recession would squeeze the middle class beyond recognition and deeply divide the rich and the poor.
“The Millionaire Next Door” encourages the view that the real millionaires of America — the frugal spenders, the self-made entrepreneurs, the savers “next door” who don’t seek attention or flaunt their wealth — haven’t actually done anything all that extraordinary to achieve financial success.
But, if we learned anything from the Great Recession, it’s that unanticipated setbacks — a job loss, an unlucky diagnosis, a bad mortgage loan, a spouse’s unexpected death — can send anyone’s personal finances teetering. Not to mention factors beyond most people’s control, such as lagging wage growth and rapidly increased fixed costs like housing, health care and education. Despite all we’ve been through, however, the message that anyone can accumulate wealth if they put the work in is one that still sells in America. Books like Stanley's can help inspire good financial habits, but the reality facing most workers today is that they’ll need much more than a seven-step guide to get them there.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/author-of-%E2%80%9Cthe-millionaire-next-door%E2%80%9D-dies-%E2%80%94-7-key-insights-from-his-book-213300777.html

Wednesday 4 March 2015

The Most Successful Dividend Investors of all time


The Most Successful Dividend Investors of all time


Dividend investing is as sexy as watching paint dry on the wall. Defining an entry criteria that selects quality dividend stocks with rising dividends over time and then patiently reinvesting these dividends while sitting on your hands is not exciting. While active traders have a plethora of hedge fund managers on the covers of Forbes magazine there are not many well-publicized successful dividend investors. Even value investing has its own superstars – Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.

I did some research and uncovered several successful dividend investors, whose stories provide reassurance that the traits of successful dividend investing I outlined in a previous post are indeed accurate.

The first investor is Anne Scheiber, who turned a $5,000 investment in 1944 into $22 million by the time of her death at the age of 101 in 1995. Anne Scheiber worked as an IRS auditor for 23 years, never earning more than $3150/year. The one important lesson she learned auditing tax returns was that the surest way to become rich in America is by accumulating stocks. She accumulated stocks in brand name companies she understood andthen reinvested dividends for decades. She never sold, in order to avoid paying taxes and commissions. She also never sold even during the 1972-1974 bear market as well as the 1987 market crash because she had high conviction in her stocks picks. She also held a diversified portfolio of almost 100 individual securities in brand names such as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Schering Plough (acquired by Pfizer in 2009). She read annual reports with the same inquisitive mind she audited tax returns during her tenure at the IRS and also attended annual shareholders meetings. Anne Scheiber did her own research on stocks, and was focusing her attention on strong franchises which have the opportunity to increase earnings and pay higher dividends over time.

In her later years she reinvested her dividends into tax free municipal bonds, which is why her portfolio had a 30% allocation to fixed income at the time of her death. At the time of her death, her portfolio was throwing off $750,000 in dividend and interest income annually. She donated her whole fortune to Yeshiva University, even though she never attended it herself.

The second investor is Grace Groner, who turned a small $180 investment in 1935 into $7 million by the time of her death in 2010. Ms Groner, who worked as a secretary at Abbott Laboratories for 43 years invested $180 in 3 shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 1935. She then simply reinvested the dividends for the next 75 years. She never sold, but just held on to her shares.


She was frugal, having grown up in the depression era, and was the classical millionaire next door type of person who was not interested in keeping up with the Joneses. Grace Groner left her entire fortune to her Alma Mater. Her $7 million donation is generating approximately $250,000 in annual dividend income. 


The reason why dividend investors are not highly publicized is because dividend investing is not sexy enough to be featured in the financial mainstream media. In addition to that, it is not profitable for Wall Street to sell you into the idea that ordinary investors can invest on their own. Compare this to mutual funds, annuities and other products which generate billions in commissions for Wall Street, despite the fact that they might not be in the best interest of small investors.

The third dividend investor is Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha himself. In a previous article I have outlined the reasoning behind my belief that Buffett is a closet dividend investor. He explicitly noted in his 2009 letter that "the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow". His investment in See's Candy is the best example of that.

Some of Buffett's best companies/stock that he has owned such as Geico, Coca Cola , See's Candy are exactly the types of investments mentioned above. He has mentioned that at Berkshire he tries to stick with businesses whose profit picture for decades to come seems reasonably predictable. Per Buffett the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow. In addition, his 2011 letter discussed his dividend income from all of Berkshire Hathaway investments, including his prediction that Coca Cola dividends will keep on increasing, based on the pattern of historical dividend increases.

In this article I outlined three dividend investors, who managed to turn small investments into cash machines that generated large amounts of dividends. They were able to accomplish this through identifying quality dividend growth companies at attractive valuations, patiently reinvesting distributions and in two out of three cases maintaining a diversified portfolio of stocks. These are the lessons that all investors could profit from.






http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2012/06/most-successful-dividend-investors-of.html

Sunday 1 March 2015

How Anne Scheiber Amassed $22 Million From Her Apartment

How Anne Scheiber Amassed $22 Million From Her Apartment

By Joshua Kennon
Investing for Beginners


In the mid 1940’s, Anne Scheiber retired from the IRS where she worked as an auditor. Using a $5,000 lump sum she had saved, and a pension of roughly $3,150, over the next 50+ years, she built a fortune from her tiny New York apartment that exceeded $22,000,000 upon her death in 1995 when she left the funds to Yeshiva University for a scholarship designed to help support deserving women. Here are some of the lessons we can learn from this ordinary woman that achieved extraordinary wealth.


1. Do your own research

Sheiber was burnt by brokers during the 1930’s so she resolved to never rely on anyone for her own financial future. Using her experience with the Internal Revenue Service, she analyzed stocks, bonds, and other assets. The result: She owned only companies with which she was comfortable. When markets collapse, one of the best ways to stay the course and maintain your investment program is to know why you own a stock, how much you think it is worth, and if the market is undervaluing it in your opinion.


2. Buy shares of excellent companies

When you’re really in this for the long-haul, you want to own excellent businesses that have durable competitive advantages, generate lots of cash, high returns on capital, have owner-oriented management, and strong balance sheets. Think about everything that has changed in the past one hundred years! We went from horse and buggies to cars to space travel, the Internet, nuclear knowledge, and a whole lot more. Yet, people still drink Coca-Cola. They still shave with Gillette razors. They still chew Wrigley gum. They still buy Johnson & Johnson products.


3. Reinvest your dividends

One of the biggest flaws with both professional and amateur investors is that they focus on changes in market capitalization or share price only. With most mature, stable companies, a substantial part of the profits are returned to shareholders in the form of cash dividends . That means you cannot measure the ultimate wealth created for investors by looking at increases in the stock price.

Famed finance professor Jeremy Siegel called reinvested dividends the “bear market protector” and “return accelerator” as they allow you to buy more shares of the company when markets crash. Over time, this drastically increases the equity you own in the company and the dividends you receive as those shares pay dividends; it’s a virtuous cycle. In most cases, the fees or costs for reinvesting dividends are either free or a nominal few dollars. This means that more of your return goes to compounding and less to frictional expenses.


4. Don’t be afraid of asset allocation

According to some sources, Anne Scheiber died with 60% of her money invested in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 10% in cash. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the concept of asset allocation , the basic idea is that it is wise for non-professional investors to keep their money divided between different types of securities such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, international, cash, and real estate. The premise is that changes in one market won’t ripple through your entire net worth.



5. Add to your investments regularly

Regular saving and investing is important because it allows you to pick up additional stocks that fit your criteria. In addition to the first investment Scheiber made, she regularly contributed to her portfolio from the small pension she received.



6. Let your money compound uninterrupted for a very long time

Probably the biggest reason Anne Scheiber was able to amass such as substantial fortune was that she allowed the money to compound for of half a century. No, that doesn’t mean you have to live the life of a monk or deny yourself the things you want. What it means is that you learn to let your money work for you instead of constantly striving to scrape by, barely meeting expenses and maintaining your standard of living.

To learn about the power of compounding, read Pay for Retirement with a Cup of Coffee and an Egg McMuffin. With only small amounts, time can turn even the smallest sums into princely treasures.




http://beginnersinvest.about.com/od/investorsmoneymanagers/a/Anne_Scheiber.htm


Tuesday 17 February 2015

Petronas Dagangan


























The stock price has risen from MR 2.00 in 2000 to MR 4.00 in 2005.

It has risen from MR 4.00 in 2005 to MR 8.00 in 2010.

From MR 8.00 in 2010, it has risen to MR 17.00 in 2015..

From 2000 to 2015, this stock has delivered multi-bagger returns.

Between 2000 to 2015, there were 3 big dips in the price of the stock, in 2001, 2009 and recent months.



Don't forget to add the GROWING dividends!

Latest February 2015  Special Dividend  0.22 
18 Nov 20140.12 Dividend
21 Aug 20140.14 Dividend
21 May 20140.12 Dividend
20 Feb 20140.175 Dividend
14 Nov 20130.175 Dividend
4 Sep 20130.175 Dividend
10 Jun 20130.175 Dividend
7 Mar 20130.175 Dividend
12 Dec 20120.175 Dividend
4 Sep 20120.175 Dividend
4 Jun 20120.175 Dividend
8 Mar 20120.15 Dividend
7 Dec 20110.15 Dividend
24 Aug 20110.15 Dividend
1 Aug 20110.35 Dividend
9 Dec 20100.30 Dividend
24 Feb 20052: 1 Stock Split
Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.


3 Aug 20100.15 Dividend
7 Dec 20090.15 Dividend
5 Aug 20090.33 Dividend
10 Dec 20080.12 Dividend
1 Aug 20080.33 Dividend
14 Dec 20070.12 Dividend
12 Dec 20050.05 Dividend
17 Aug 20050.10 Dividend
30 Nov 20040.10 Dividend
5 Aug 20040.20 Dividend
10 Dec 20030.20 Dividend
23 Jul 20030.10 Dividend
22 Jul 20030.10 Dividend
Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

























Comments:  5.2.2015

Revenue - Lower due to Decrease in Sales volume

Group Operating Profit  -  Lower due to lower gross margin and higher operating expenditure.

1.  Lower gross profit margin - Lower due to higher product cost due to unfavourable timing differences of the Mean of Platts Singapore ("MOPS"Smiley prices compared to corresponding quarter last year.

2.  Higher operating expenditure - mainly attributed to manpower expenses, ICT maintenance charges, advertising and promotion and net loss on foreign currency as US dollar weakened against Malaysian Ringgit during the current period compared to net gain on foreign currency during the corresponding period last year.

Increase in revenue - due to higher selling price 

Decrease in revenue - due to decrease in sales volume, despite a higher average selling price.


The downward trend in global oil prices has an adverse impact on PDB's margins.  

PDB's business is expected to be challenging as long as the downward trend is expected to continue.


How to defend its overall market leadership position?

1. Grow its business domestically - further strengthening its brand, sweating existing assets and continuosly enhancing customer relationship management.

2.  Continue its cost optimisation efforts - enhancement of supply and distribution efficienecy, improvement of terminal operational excellence to further improve cost of operations.



NOTE:  

Results of PDB will be affected adversely when:

1.  US currency is weakening.  Cash

2.  The global oil price is trending downwards.    Cash


Do you think the fundamentals of PDB are permanently damaged or they are facing a temporary period of difficulties or challenges?   Smiley


How can PDB delivers better results?

1.  Increasing its volume sold.
2.  Lower average selling prices may lead to increase in volume sold.
3.  Operational efficiency - cost and expense minimisation - leading to increasing profit margins.
4.  When US dollar is appreciating or getting stronger.
5.  When global oil price is stabilised or increasing in price trend.

How To Save Money: 3 Common Methods

savings jars image
Amongst the millions of questions regarding financial matters, the most popular one is undoubtedly “How do I save my money?”. Here are 3 common ways that could help you save a sizable amount for when it’s time to retire.

1) Contribute to EPF, do NOT withdraw

For Malaysians, EPF is undoubtedly the easiest way to save your money. Your personal contribution of 11% aside, your employer’s mandatory contribution of 13% (for employees earning less than RM5,000 monthly salaries) makes it a total of 24% of your monthly wages saved under your name each and every month.
To top it off, EPF’s average return of 5% per year is significantly higher than any fixed deposit interests in the market right now.
Tips: Firstly, get employed at a company that contributes to EPF. Try to keep your money in your EPF account for as long as possible because there simply aren’t any other bank deposits with higher interest rates in the market. If you can help it, DO NOT use any of your EPF sub accounts to pay for your home or buy a computer, so you can take full advantage of EPF’s high interest rate to maximize your returns.

2) Put your money aside the good old fashion way

Saving your money requires determination and discipline. If you aren’t already doing so, try putting aside a small percentage of your salary every month-end and save it in a separate bank account, preferably one without any easy withdrawal facilities (eg. ATM).
When you have a moderate amount, transfer the money to a high-interest fixed deposit account so it can generate greater interests whilst stopping you from accessing the funds every time you feel like getting a new handphone or a new pair of shoes.
To find the best fixed deposits in the market right now, check out our fixed deposit comparison table.
Tips: Like many other things in life, saving is an endeavour that many find hard to adopt especially in the beginning. To ease yourself into your money-saving journey, you may wish to start off with a moderate amount (say 5-10% of your wages) so that it does not affect your cash flow to the extend of making you give up altogether. Over time, you can try to increase the amount as the act of saving becomes a habit. Also, when it comes to saving, it helps to start as young as possible so you can reap the benefits of compound interest over the long run.

3) Use your money to invest in something

If you have moderate tolerance to risk, are not close to retirement age and have a sizable amount in your savings or fixed deposit account, you’ll probably want to consider using some of the monies you have for investment purposes.
Be it in shares, gold or real estate; investment is a great way to save even MORE money because the potential returns are usually much greater than, say, putting your money into a bank. The downside, however, is that investment involves RISKS – the risk of non-performance from your investments, or in certain cases, the risk of total evaporation of value for your investments caused by adverse market conditions.
Tips: Not all categories of investments are born equal, so you are advised to do your homework well before you engage with any kind of investment. For example: properties are considered medium-risk investments; they generally enjoy consistent growth but they also have low liquidity (i.e. not easily turned to cash). Shares, on the other hand, are considered high-risk investments; they are prone to fluctuations in value caused by volatile market, which basically means you could potentially GAIN a lot or LOSE a lot. Whichever form of investment you choose, it is best to make a genuine effort to learn about it before you commit.


Love this article? You might also wish to read about the importance of diversification in investment.

How To Save Money: 3 Common Methods

Monday 16 February 2015

The two things investors must do now, according to the Nobel laureate.

Shiller's back, and he has more depressing news

CNBC
By Alex Rosenberg
Feb 14, 2015 2:08 PM

The two things investors must do now, according to the Nobel laureate.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller has a grim message for investors: Save up, because in the years ahead, assets aren't going to give you the type of returns that you've become accustomed to. In his third edition of "Irrational Exuberance," which will drop later this month, the Yale professor of economics warns about high prices for stocks and bonds alike. "Don't use your usual assumptions about returns going forward." Shiller recommended to investors in a Thursday interview on CNBC's " Futures Now ." He says that stock valuations look rich. In fact, Shiller's favorite valuation measure, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which compares current prices to the prior 10 years' worth of earnings) is "higher than ever before except for the times around 1929, 2000, and 2008, all major market peaks," he writes in his new preface to the third edition. "It's very hard to predict turning points in markets," Shiller said on Thursday. His CAPE measure of the S&P 500 (CME:Index and Options Market: .INX) "could keep going up. ... But it's definitely high. By historical standards, it's up there." Meanwhile, Shiller said that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, "can't keep trending down" and "could [reach] a major turning point in coming years." It's no surprise, then, that Shiller expects little in the way of asset returns-meaning Americans will have to rely more heavily on the piggy bank.

Shiller warns bond investors: Beware of 'crash'! Given the current state of the stock and bond markets, "you might want to save more. A lot of people aren't saving enough. And incidentally, people are living longer now and health care is improving, you might end up retired for 30 years-people are not really preparing for that," he said. The other pillar of his advice is a classic tenant of responsible investing, with a global twist. "Diversify, because that helps reduce risk," Shiller said. "And you can diversify outside the United States. Some people would never invest in Europe-I think that's a mistake." Shiller adds that emerging markets can also provide attractive values. And indeed, valuations in much of the world are far lower than in the United States, given that investors are more optimistic about economic prospects in America than in nearly any other country. But perhaps people shouldn't base their investing decisions quite so heavily on predictions. "The future is always coming up with surprises for us, and the best way to insulate yourself from these surprises is to diversify," Shiller said.

Monday 9 February 2015

PE multiple is rooted in discounting theory

Valuation using multiples has its fundamentals rooted in discounting.  It is a shortcut to valuation.

In this method, all factors considered in a general DCF including cost of capital and growth rates are compressed in one figure, namely the multiple figure.  Multiples are also market-based.


Let's look at PE in detail.

PE =  Price / Earnings

Price
= PE x Earnings
= Earnings / (1/PE)


Compare this with the time-value of money equation:

PV = FV / (1+r)^n

or the dividend growth model:

PV = Div1 / (r-g)


Thus a PE multiple of 5 should nearly imply a discount rate of 20%.

The same goes for other kinds of multiples used in the financial markets:
EV/EBITDA multiples
EV/Sales
Price/Cash flow.

They are all short cuts for discounting.  The EBITDA, Sales and Cash flows are all proxies of the free cash flow.



DEFINITION OF 'DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW - DCF'

A valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them (most often using the weighted average cost of capital) to arrive at a present value, which is used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one.
Calculated as:

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Also known as the Discounted Cash Flows Model.


Reference:  Finance for Beginners  by Hafeez Kamaruzzaman

Thursday 5 February 2015

SECRET MILLIONAIRE: Petrol station attendant leaves behind millions

05 February 2015 16:03

SECRET MILLIONAIRE: Petrol station attendant leaves behind millions


Perhaps the only clue that Ronald Read, a Vermont gas station attendant and janitor who died last year at age 92, had been quietly amassing an US$8 million (S$10 million) fortune was his habit of reading the Wall Street Journal, his friends and family say.
It was not until last week that the residents of Brattleboro would discover Read's little secret. That's when the local library and hospital received the bulk of his estate, built up over the years with savvy stock picks.
"Investing and cutting wood, he was good at both of them," his lawyer Laurie Rowell said on Wednesday, noting that he read the Journal every day.
Most of those who knew Read, described as a frugal and extremely private person, were aware that he could handle an axe. But next to no one knew how well he was handling his financial portfolio.

Read, the first person in his family to graduate from high school, dressed in worn flannel shirts and spent his free time scavenging for fallen branches for his home wood stove. He drove a second-hand Toyota Yaris.
"You'd never know the man was a millionaire," Rowell said. "The last time he came here, he parked far away in a spot where there were no meters so he could save the coins."
Read graduated from Brattleboro High School in 1940 and during World War II served in North Africa, Italy and the Pacific theatre. Returning home, he worked at Haviland's service station and then as a janitor at a JCPenney store, marrying a woman with two children.
Before his death on June 2, 2014, Read's only indulgence was eating breakfast at the local coffee shop, where he once tried to pay his bill only to find that someone had already covered it under the assumption he did not have the means, Rowell said.
Last week, Brooks Memorial Library and Brattleboro Memorial Hospital each received their largest bequests ever. Read left US$1.2 million to the library, founded in 1886, and US$4.8 million to the hospital, founded in 1904.
"It was a thunderbolt from the sky," said the library's executive director, Jerry Carbone. While a surprise, he said the gift made sense once he learned more about the quiet, shy library patron appropriately named Read.
"Being a self-made man with his investments, he recognised the transformative nature of a library, what it can do for people," Carbone said.
Read's stepchildren survive him but were not immediately available for comment. - Asiaone


Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=455171:secret-millionaire-petrol-station-attendant-leaves-behind-millions&Itemid=4#ixzz3QsFZjRIf

Monday 2 February 2015

Staying Rational in a Falling Market, using rational price or rational value approach


Read the Market's Long-Term Performance


Those "buy-and-watch" physician-investors have experienced one of the most unsettling periods in their investment lives. They've seen the value of investments soar to heights that would have cast a shadow on Icarus, and then plummet to depths that few of us have ever seen. These extraordinary bubbles and busts have tested the faith that many have in fundamental investment principles and likely caused some to abandon their discipline. Many who stayed the course are still questioning whether they should have been able to tell when the market was going to take its dive.

KEEP PERSPECTIVE

Of course, the best way to keep your mind at ease through times like these is perspective. Those who are thoroughly grounded in long-term thinking know that these kinds of events are transient and will eventually work out. Patience and vigilance are the only attributes an investor needs to get through them. A new approach is found in rational price or rational value, which pertains to a portfolio whose stocks have been priced at their rational prices.

There's no question that the most recent bubble was the product of what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan termed "irrational exuberance."We now know that in the course of a year, the price of a stock can go up or down, departing as much as 50% from the average price. The distortion that applies to the price is also applicable to the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, which is a function of the price. Viewing the P/E ratio as merely a rate you pay for a dollar's worth of earnings makes perfect sense.

During the course of a 5-year cycle, the market's P/E ratio will typically make even greater departures from the norm. And several times during a century, excursions from the average can be extreme and either delightful or painful.

The significant thing for physician-investors to remember is this: If the price is truly driven by earnings in the long term, and successful methodology says that it is, then deviations in the P/E ratio, the "rate," must be caused by something other than earnings. If it weren't, the price and P/E ratio would always march in absolute lock step with the most recently reported earnings per share.

KNOW THE HUMAN FACTOR

What is that mysterious force that causes the price and P/E ratio to vary up and down, sometimes by huge amounts? It's nothing more than the collective perception or opinion about the effect that the daily host of media reports, stories, current events, earnings forecasts, speculation, etc, will have on the economy, the market, an industry, or a company. It's fear, greed, paranoia, and euphoria that uninformed or over-informed speculators act on. These change every minute; reported earnings do not.

How, then, should you compensate for these fleeting, disconcerting, and often misleading trends? We recognize that the daily, short-term fluctuations in the P/E ratio are not important when compared to earnings over the long term. This allows us to calculate a rational price for each of our stocks and a rational value for our holdings.

Simply stated, the rational price tells what the price of our stock would be if the public's decisions to buy or sell were governed by earnings and not by all the unpredictable factors. In effect, the rational price answers the question, "If the public really had it together, what would they be paying for my stocks?"

To calculate a price, use the "signature P/E ratio" and earning per share. The simplest way to do this is to multiply a company's 10-year average P/E ratio by the most recent trailing 12 months' earnings. Once you've calculated your rational prices, you can analyze your portfolio and calculate its rational value (ie, the sum of the products of the number of shares and their rational prices).

The benefit to be derived from this exercise is significant. It puts whatever irrationality Mr. Market might be currently laboring under into perspective and gives you a view of just how irrational he is at any time. It's a way to quantify just how right you are compared to the rest of the world, which goes a long way toward providing comfort when times are bad, and tempering euphoria when they're good. And, if nothing else, it may be just the encouragement a physician-investor needs to stay the course. That may be the best medicine of all.

Ellis Traub, author of Take Stock: A Roadmap to Profiting from Your First Walk Down Wall Street (Dearborn; 2000), is chairman of the Inve$tWare Corp (www.investware.com), manufacturers of stock analysis software. He welcomes questions or comments at 954-723-9910, ext 222, or etraub@investware.com.
- See more at: http://www.hcplive.com/publications/pmd/2003/53/2654#sthash.4g85ciyZ.dpuf