Understanding the economic cycles and market valuation will not help anyone predict the direction of the market in the short term or even in midterms like a year or two. However,
For analyzing individual companies, having a good knowledge of business cycles and the likely future market returns can be useful in evaluating
- it keeps investors from looking in the rear-view mirror, and
- they will have a clearer view of the future and be able to stay rational when the market gets euphoric or sinks into fear again.
For analyzing individual companies, having a good knowledge of business cycles and the likely future market returns can be useful in evaluating
- management's capital allocation decisions,
- their aggressiveness in accounting and
- the quality of earnings related to pension-fund return assumptions.
Buffett is a bottom-up value investor and rarely talks about the general market. But he has a tremendous understanding of
- business cycles,
- the role of interest rates,
- market valuations and
- the likely future returns and risks.
Over the long term, investors should always be optimistic. They should focus their investments on the quality companies that not only can pass the test of bad times, but also can come out stronger.
Now, more than any other time, it is vital to invest only in good companies.
