myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

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Tuesday, 25 June 2024

Age of Easy Money (full documentary)

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Friday, 14 June 2024

Supply Shocks and Stagflation

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Box: Supply Shocks and Stagflation If a supply shock is sufficiently large or persistent, it not only causes cost‑push inflation, but can no...

Inflation expectations

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  Inflation expectations Inflation expectations are the beliefs that households and firms have about future price increases. They are import...

Cost-push inflation

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Cost-push inflation Cost-push inflation occurs when the total supply of goods and services in the economy which can be produced (aggregate s...

Demand-pull inflation

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  Demand-pull inflation Demand-pull inflation arises when the total demand for goods and services (i.e. ‘aggregate demand’) increases to exc...

Causes of Inflation: demand-pull, cost-push and inflation expectations

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Causes of inflation The main causes of inflation can be grouped into three broad categories: demand-pull, cost-push, and inflation expectati...

Inflation

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Inflation is an increase in the prices of goods and services.  The most well-known indicator of inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI),...
Tuesday, 28 May 2024

High capex companies are usually bad investments as they rarely produce enough free cash flow

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Supermarket companies, in general have consistently spent more on capex than depreciation and produced very low free cash flow per share ...

How depreciation of assets can distort profit figures

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Depreciation is an expense that matches the cost of a fixed asset against the revenues it helps to produce.  The cost of an asset is spread...
Monday, 27 May 2024

Looking for possible investment candidates: Four simple rules when comparing FCFps with EPS

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  Summary Expenses and depreciation reduce profits.  Capex reduces FCF. When expenses are not expensed against revenues but considered as ca...

If free cash flow per share is consistently a lot lower than EPS, this is a warning sign.

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 The 2 main reasons for FCF being lower than a company's EPS are: 1.  Poor operating cash conversion 2.  High levels of investment in ne...

Quality companies turn most of their profits into free cash flow on a regular basis

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We can use free cash flow as a tool for checking the quality of a company's profits. The stock market has been littered with companies ...

Checking the safety of dividend payments

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Dividends are an important part of total returns from owning a share.   Dividends are a cash payment and therefore the company needs to have...
Sunday, 26 May 2024

When free cash flow may not be what it seems

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Free cash flow comes with a few caveats one need to be aware of. Besides calculating a company's free cash flow, one need to study its...
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Tuesday, 14 May 2024

CHECKLIST ON HOW TO VALUE SHARES

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BIGGEST RISK:  PAYING TOO MUCH The biggest risk you face to be a successful investor in shares is paying too much.    It is important to re...

Can quality be more important than price?

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Paying too much for a share can result in disappointing returns. No company, no matter how good, is a buy at any price. Share valuation is n...

The importance of growth

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If you are going to buy and own expensive shares, you must be very confident that high rates of growth can continue for a long time into the...

Using owner earnings to value shares: Setting a maximum price method

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Setting a maximum price and buying price for Company X shares Current cash profit per share 11.6 sen Divide by interest rate [inflation +3%]...

Using owner earnings to value shares: Earnings Power Value (EPV)

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 EPV gives an estimated value of a share if its current cash profits stay the same forever. Calculation: 1 Normalised or underlying trading...

Using owner earnings to value shares: Cash yield or Interest rate method

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This approach is very simple. Take the owner earnings or the cash profit per share and divide it by the current share price to get a cash in...
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