Financial investment predictions for 2009
By Anthony Keane January 05, 2009 12:01am
New year, new tips ... experts say 2009 presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the long-term investor.
Optimistic outlook for investors
Opportunities in stocks, real estate
Blue-chip bargains
MAKING investment predictions is a risky business, especially after the world's worst financial year in decades.
In January, 2008, nobody forecast the severity of the global financial crisis.
A year later, the resources boom is over, official interest rates have been cut by 3 percentage points and boring government bonds have delivered the best returns.
Here we are in January, 2009, and the financial predictions are flowing again, with Westpac, BHP Billiton and QBE Insurance some of the expert's stock picks for the new year.
After the stock market rout of 2008, most experts are forecasting a rebound in shares this year - as many quality companies now appear undervalued.
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Research group and fund manager Lincoln Indicators says large-capitalisation companies will lead the market recovery "due to increased investor confidence and perceived safety in these stocks".
Lincoln's list of possible outperformers includes Westpac, CSL, QBE Insurance, BHP Billiton and Leighton Holdings.
"Despite the fact that global markets are unlikely to recover to their pre-credit crunch position in the near future, we expect the market to rally in 2009 as the stock market presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the long-term investor," Lincoln chief executive Elio A'Amato said.
The Federal Government's stimulus plan would inject cash into the economy and underpin new infrastructure projects, giving a boost to engineering and construction companies, said Mr A'Amato.
PKF partner Tony Simmons said Australian shares and international shares were likely to be the best investment vehicles in 2009.
"Property may also be a good bet, provided you are not currently geared too highly.
"With lower interest rates and depressed property prices, it could well be a good time to get into the property market or to increase your holdings." Prescott Securities financial adviser David Middleton said 2009 was likely to be a sluggish year for world economies, with a recovery not expected until later in the year. "The good news is the coming year is unlikely to be as difficult as 2008, but then few years ever will be," he said. Those who invest for the long term and resist selling shares will be rewarded, he said.
"Any potential recession seems well and truly reflected in current prices, and this is not a time to be selling unless you have to." Maintaining liquidity and not becoming a forced seller is key, he said.
Prescott's recommends focusing on top-shelf industrial shares such as QBE Insurance and Toll Holdings, construction companies such as Leighton Holdings and Lend Lease, and healthcare companies such as Sonic Healthcare and Ramsay Healthcare.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/money/story/0,26860,24871845-5015799,00.html
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