iCap sold Axiata and bought Astro

The icap portfolio dated 11.6.2008 listed 17 stocks. VADS was taken private, leaving 16 stocks.

Let us make an (unlikely) assumption that the portfolio of 16 stocks has not changed over the last 1 year. Using the share prices of 26.6.2009 revealed some interesting figures.

Click to view:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rPy-muVrt2cj5PSRqXgtT2A

Observations:

1. 8 stocks are showing gains, 8 stocks are showing losses.

2. The winners are: Parkson, PetDag, F&N, Padini, PIE, HaiO, LionDiv, and PohKong, in descending order of gains.

The corresponding percentages of gains for each of these stocks in the same order are: 106.3%, 101.2%, 46.2%, 69.6%, 33.7%, 33.4%, 78.7%, and 2.5%.

Total of these 8 stock gains is: $49,797,470.00

3. The losers are: Boustead, TM, Swee Joo, Mieco, Integrax, Suria, Tongher and TMI, in ascending order of losses.

The corresponding percentages of losses for each of these stocks in the same order are: -5.4%, -7.9%, -46.8%, -76.7%, -23.4%, -43%, -44.1%, and -71.1%.

Total of these 8 stock losses is: $-24,278,277.00

4. The total gains exceed total losses by $25,519,193.00. Gains : Losses = 2.05 : 1.0

5. TMI (Axiata) accounts for 52% of the total losses ($12.7 million). The other 7 losing counters contribute 48% of the total losses.

6. Parkson is the top gainer; it accounts for 44.8% ($22.3m) of the total gains. The top 3 stock gainers (Parkson, PetDag and F&N) contribute 82% ($40.9m) of the total gains. The other 5 winning counters account for 18% of the total gains.

7. Of these 16 stocks, 10 can probably be considered thinly traded most of the time (illiquid).

8. TMI is the second largest stock in icap portfolio, based on cost. Here are the stocks, in descending order, based on cost: Parkson, TMI, F&N, PetDag, PIE, Boustead, Integrax, TM, Tongher, Padini, Suria, Swee Joo, Mieco, HaiO, PohKong, and LionDiv.

9. The biggest gainers are also the bigger stocks in icap, based on cost, namely, Parkson, F&N, PetDag and PIE. TMI is the big stock in icap showing a very big loss. To fathom this, the loss of TMI wipes out all the gains of PetDag.

10. The total cost of these 16 stocks is $127,425,010.00. The total market value of these 16 stocks is $145,453,495.00. Other gains not taken into account in this observation are the capital gains from stocks sold and dividends received by icap portfolio.

What are your conclusions on these observations?

In the latest report by icap, Axiata (previous TMI) was sold and Astro was bought.

Among the reasons for selling stocks would be:

• If you need cash urgently for various reasons.
• When the fundamental of the stock has deteriorated.
• When you need to raise cash to invest into another stock with better potential.
• When your stock is overpriced, reducing the potential of gain.

Why did icap sell Axiata, probably at a low price?

Well, it should be interesting to find out at the next icap AGM.

Meantime, please continue with your good work, Mr. ttb.

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iCap Closed End Fund Track Record for last 2 years
Morningstar's Approach to Analyzing Mutual Funds