BELIEVING A BULL MARKET

BELIEVING A BULL MARKET


When markets are rapidly rising, value investing invariably falls out of favor with the investing public. In an upward racing market, value stocks appear dull and stodgy as the more speculative issues rush toward new market highs. But come the correction, it all looks different. Stable value stocks seem like trusted friends.

Most bull markets have well-defined characteristics. These include:

• Price levels are historically high.
  
• Price to earnings ratios are high.
  
• Dividend yields are low compared with bond yields (or compared with a stock’s particular dividend yield pattern).
  
• Margin buying becomes excessive as investors are driven to borrow to buy more of the high-priced stocks that look attractive to them.
  
• There is a swarm of new stock offerings, especially initial public offerings (IPOs) of questionable quality. This bull market is what investment bankers and stock promoters call the “window of opportunity.” Because IPOs so often occur when Wall Street is primed to pay top dollar, seasoned investors joke that IPO stands for “it’s probably overpriced.”
  

Just a reminder not to be too carried away by the rising market.

THE PAUSE AT THE TOP OF THE ROLLER COASTER

There is only one strategy that works for value investors when the market is high – patience. The investor can do one of two things, both of which require steady nerves.

· Sell all stocks in a portfolio, take profits, and wait for the market to decline. At that time, many good values will present themselves. This may sound easy, but it pains many investors to sell a stock when its price is still rising.

· Stick with those stocks in a portfolio that have long-term potential. Sell only those that are clearly overvalued, and once more wait for the market to decline. At this time, value stocks may be appreciating at slow pace compared with the frisky growth stocks, but not always.

But come the correction, be it sudden or slow, the well-chosen value stocks have a better chance of holding their price.

A nice quotation: We believe in taking advantage of temporary market downturns to position our portfolios for the long term.