KFC Holdings (Malaysia) Bhd

*Wright Quality Rating: DAB1
Liquidity D (Fair)
Financial Strength A (Outstanding)
Profitability B (Excellent)
Growth 1 (Lowest)

Announcement
Date/ Fin.Yr. End/ Qtr/ Period End/ Rev RM '000/ Profit RM'000 /EPS Amended
21-May-09 31-Dec-09 1 31-Mar-09 526,639 29,433 14.47 -
26-Feb-09 31-Dec-08 4 31-Dec-08 601,907 28,717 14.32 -
20-Nov-08 31-Dec-08 3 30-Sep-08 552,440 31,824 15.86 -
20-Aug-08 31-Dec-08 2 30-Jun-08 529,843 31,002 15.34 -

(Based on above: ttm-eps was 60 sen)


Higher contribution from the KFC Restaurants segment: (1) from continuing network expansion (38 new restaurants added last year), and (2) from new sales channel such as breakfast and extension of operating hours of certain outlets to 24 hours. This is negated by increased cost of raw material.

Poultry Integrated segment: Higher turnover due to (1) improved sales to the KFC restaurants and (2) better sales of its Ayamas products both locally and in export sector. This is partially negated by the increasing cost of commodities which resulted in higher cost of internally produced poultry products.

-----

Historical data:

Last 5-Yr
DY Range 3.4% - 2.4%
PE Range 9.3 - 13.2 (Mean PE 11.25)
EPSGR 28.4%

Last 10-Yr
DY Range 2.9% - 2.0%
PE Range 12.7 - 18.6
EPSGR 47.1%

-----
What the management wrote in the last quarter release:
Current Year Prospects

The global economy deteriorated further during the first quarter. In Singapore, initial estimates indicated that the Singapore economy registered a negative growth of 11.5% in the first quarter and the Ministry of Trade and Industry announced that the Gross Domestic Product would contract by 6% to 9% in 2009. (Source : Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore). It was widely expected that the Malaysian economy will improve in the second half of 2009 supported by the stabilization in global economic conditions. These expectations were however dampened by the outbreak of Influenza A (H1N1) in late April 2009, which may slow down the economic recovery process.

With the prevalent economic uncertainties, consumer spending is expected to be negatively affected. Thus the Group will continue to focus on value to customers by offering value for money products to align with its customers spending ability.

Based on the foregoing, the Board is optimistic of sustaining the Group’s performance in the balance of the year. The Group has laid down plans to increase revenue and profitability by increasing the restaurants network, enhancing customer experience, developing new and improved products, expanding business activities, developing better cost efficiencies and improving productivity at all the restaurants and manufacturing facilities.

-----

Using ttm-eps 60 sen and expected estimated dividend (SPG) 16.5 sen

At today's price of 7.30:
DY is estimated 2.26% (Below the mean of the DY range)
PE is 12.2 (Just above the mean of the PE range)
PEG is 12.2/28.4 = 0.43 (Cheap)

At 7.30, one would be buying at slightly higher than the fair PE for KFC. However, valuation based on PEG is cheap.

The uncertainty as usual is in judging how the business will grow in the future. However, it is alright to acquire a good company at fair price. The question you should ask is: Will KFC be able to grow its business and earnings strongly in the next few years? The last 4 quarters revenues and earnings have been flat, probably due to the weak economic environment.

Anyway, KFC has done well the last 5 years and should continues to prosper, given the increasing numbers of Malaysians entering the middle income class group.

As usual, you will have to make your own decision in investing.



-----

*Wright Quality Ratings are based on numerous individual measures of quality, grouped into four principal components: (1) Investment Acceptance (i.e. stock liquidity), (2) Financial Strength, (3) Profitability & Stability, and (4) Growth. The ratings are based on established principles using 5-6 years of corporate record and other investment data.

The ratings consist of three letters and a number. Each letter reflects a composite qualitative measurement of numerous individual standards which may be summarized as follows:
A = Outstanding; B = Excellent; C = Good; D = Fair; L = Limited; N = Not Rated.

The number component of the Quality Rating is also a composite measurement of the annual corporate growth, based on earnings and modified by growth rates of equity, dividends, and sales per common share. The Growth rating may vary from 0 (lowest) to 20 (highest).