Questions: Why are manipulated stocks so risky?

Questions: Why are manipulated stocks so risky?

There are just simply too many counters on Bursa Malaysia, most of which are hardly touched by investors. Singapore Exchange is about 0.5x larger than Bursa Malaysia in terms of total market cap. We are 3x smaller than Taiwan, 5x smaller than Hong Kong and 200x smaller than South Korea! But we have the most number of listed companies in the world (close to 1400) after US! How can such a small economy have so many listed companies? That is because most of them are as good as worthless, which become a heaven for manipulators.

During the bull run in the early 90s, manipulators pushed the stock prices up to ridiculous prices and keep them at that level so that they can use the stocks as collateral to borrow huge sums from financial institutions. When the market crashed in the 1997-98, these financial institutions suffered huge losses because many companies defaulted on their payment and their shares which are placed as collateral are worth close to nothing. As a result, financial institutions are very careful when lending money to those who use stocks as collateral. Nowadays, they do their on valuation on the stocks before lending out money.

Since they can't mortgage the stocks, how can the manipulators gain by pushing the stock price up? The most common way these manipulators earn money is by accumulating these shares at low prices (20c for example). In most cases, the shares are cornered before they start manipulating ths prices. They will then push up the share price to maybe $1 and in the process, create large volumes. There is a case recently where someone was charged with creating about 100 trading accounts to create fake trading volume by using the accounts to repeatedly buy and sell shares of the same company.

When these shares are being pushed to $1, many punters will be enticed to join in. In the process of pushing the share price, some manipulators are smart enough to make a few super ambitious announcements to stir up interest. Some even put in large buy orders to create strong demand for the shares to further entice punters. As punters get into the stock, they will slowly release shares into the market while at the same time, put in large buy orders to create the so called fake demand.

The most risky part occurs when the manipulators have released enough stocks to the market. They will then dump the rest of their shares at lower prices (maybe 50c-80c). When the shares drop to 40-50c level, more punters will be interested to pick them up, believing that the stock could rebound. However, this only gives the manipulators another chance to dump their remaining shares.

Manipulators make huge profits when punters join in the 'bull run' in the counter. You can make money if you are lucky enough to exit at the right time before they dump the shares. It is very hard to predict when they will dump it. Most of the time, manipulators dump their shares when the counter looked like it was undroppable. Purchasing stocks that is being pushed is extremely risky because when it drops, it practically crashes. You can possibly earn some money every time you exit at the right time but when you fail to exit before the dump, you stand to lose a bomb.

The share market is meant for investors. I have seen many punters (some of whom are my friends) who have left the share market because they lose too much trading speculative stocks. For those who still follow stocks that are being pushed, I would suggest you just bring your money to Genting Casino. The chances are better and you can feel more adrenalin rush watching the roulette wheel that some blinking on the computer screen.

In Malaysia, most of these speculative stocks are on the brink of bankruptcy. The chances of them surviving or turning around is close to nil. Businesses are not easy to turn around, especially with the corrupt practices and poor managements in Malaysia. In Australia, the speculative stocks are mostly exploration companies searching for resources like gold, copper, zinc, uranium and others. These explorers all have chances of striking it rich with a bit of luck. Therefore, I would suggest to those who like to follow the speculative stocks in Malaysia to try trade on ASX (you have to figure out how to create an account), where you can make a lot with some luck. In Malaysia, luck alone wont be enough. Investing based on fundamentals and track record is the only way.

Disclaimer: This report is brought to you by Investssmart, an unlicensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice from your remisiers. By law, they are the experts. I am not responsible for your investment decisions.

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