Most look for the bull and neglect the bear. DON'T NEGLECT THE BEAR

Jim Rogers wrote - Don't neglect the Bear - in his book 'A Gift to My Children':

What is it that most investors fail to consider?  Most look for the bull and neglect the bear.  As an investor, I am always in search of "what is bearish."  When people are crazed about an overheated market and are oblivious of other investment possibilities, that's when I find a good deal.

During the stock bubble of 1998, when most people ignored commodities, I started up a commodity index.  Commodities had been in the doldrums for years, so no one had made any money.  Most people fled the field, and few young people even studied natural resources.  Fewer still went into farming or mining (MBAs were all the rage then, remember?). the end result being that we currently have a shortage of farmers and geologists.  That is  true in other countries as well.  These factors led to a multiyear decline in productive capacity, while demand kept rising.  The returns show how well commodities have done.  The Rogers International Commodity Index, which I founded in 1998, quadrupled over the next ten years, while the Standard and Poor's 500 index of stocks rose about 40 percent.


Also read:

Betting on the Blind Side

Learning from Michael Burry: from being a medical resident to being regarded as one of the greatest investors in recent history.