Saturday, 15 May 2010

Book value is a good proxy for the value of a banking stock.

Because banks' balance sheets consist mostly of financial assets with varying degrees of liquidity, book value is a good proxy for the value of a banking stock.  Assuming the assets and liabilities closely approximate their reported value, the base value for a bank should be book value.  

  • For any premium above the book value, investors are paying for future growth and excess earnings.  
  • Seldom do banks trade for less than book, but if they do, the bank's assets could be distressed.  
  • Typically, big banks have traded in the two or three times book range over the past decades; regionals have often traded for less than that.


A solid bank trading at less than two times book value is often worth a closer look.

  • Remember, there is almost always a reason the bank is selling at a discount, so be sure you understand the risks.  
  • On the other hand, some banks are worth three times book value or more, but we would exercise caution before paying that much.  
Bank stocks are volatile creatures, and you can find good values if you're patient - especially because even the best banks will generally be hit hard when any high-profile blowup occurs in the financial services sector.  Lining up several banks for a relative P/B valuation isn't as good as putting together a discounted cash flow model, but for this industry, it can be a reasonable approximation of the value of the business.

These metrics should serve as a starting point for seeking out quality bank stocks.  Overall, we think the best defense for investors who want to pick their own financial services stocks is

  • patience and 
  • a healthy sense of skepticism.  

Build a paper portfolio of core companies that look promising and learn the businesses over time.  Get a feel for

  • the kind of lending they do, 
  • the way that risk is managed, 
  • the quality of management, and 
  • the amount of equity capital the bank holds.  
When an opportunity presents itself - and one always does - you'll be in a much better position to act.

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