Free Cash Flow Yield trumps Dividends as a driver of returns

The chart below was adapted from research conducted by Empirical Research Partners – it depicts relative returns for U.S. large cap stocks sorted by dividend growth, share repurchases, and price/free cash flow over the 35-year period from 1970-2005.

You will notice the following:

• Strategies focused only on dividend growth have only modestly outperformed the S&P 500 Index.
• Companies that pay no dividends at all have the worst return records.
• Strategies focused on price/free cash flow were the most effective at outperforming the S&P 500 Index.

Even in today’s severely compromised market environment, companies are fiercely protective of their free cash flow. Despite the downturn, free cash flow has held up remarkably well due to a couple of factors: a low capital expenditure base and aggressive management of working capital.

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