The concept of Rational Value of a Portfolio (Ellis Traub)

Re: Toolkit 5 and rational Value
Financial Literacy for Youth
Thu, 30 Dec 2004 18:34:18 -0800 (PST)

Diane:

At 08:57 PM 12/30/2004, you wrote:

The Portfolio Report Card Overview section of Toolkit 5 has a new concept,
called rational value. I'm trying to understand how the the number is
calculated.

----

You should be able to arrive at it by dividing the current price of
each stock by its relative value and multiplying that result by the
number of shares.

The concept behind this value is that each company has a fairly
constant PE (we like to call it the "signature PE") at which it has
sold. This is its historical average and represents a price (expressed
as a multiple of earnings) that has proven to be reasonable. The PE
is a rate investors are willing to pay for a dollar's worth of earnings
(much like the price or rate for a pound of coffee or gallon of gas).

When the PE is above that signature PE, it's selling at a higher rate
than "normal" and, conversely, when it sells below that value, it's
selling at a lower than "normal" rate.

The "Rational Price" (current price divided by the Relative Value)
is the price at which the stock would be selling were it to have
a Relative Value of 100%. In other words, it's the "normal" price
for the stock based on history. The "Rational Value" is the value
of your holdings if people were to be paying that "rational" price
for the stock.

The value is in setting a realistic value on your portfolio so that
you can see if, in the present market, your portfolio and its
holdings are above or below what it "should" be if people were
paying that rational price. It's supposed to keep you feet on the
ground in a bubble and your head in the clouds in a bust.

Ellis Traub





Terminology:


Signature PE =  The fairly constant PE at which the stock has sold.


Relative (PE) Value = Current PE / Signature PE


Rational Price of Stock 
= Price at which the Stock would be selling were it to have a Relative Value of 100%
= Current Price of Stock / Relative Value


Rational Value of a Stock in a Portfolio 
= Rational Price of Stock X Number of Shares
= [(Current Price of Stock / Relative Value) X Number of Shares]


Rational Value of a Portfolio 
= Sum of the Rational Values of Each Stock in the Portfolio
= Rational Value of Stock A + Rational Value of Stock B + Rational Value of Stock C + ......


http://www.mail-archive.com/i-club-list@lists.better-investing.org/msg04788.html


Relative Values and Rational Prices of Selected Stocks in KLSE.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AuRRzs61sKqRdEdTREYtNTVQYnZtS1hfMDlSQjc3elE&output=html