Padini

Date announced 26/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 4
FYE 30/06/2010

STOCK  PADINI 
C0DE  7052 

Price $ 5.2 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 11.27 Curr. DY 4.33%
LFY Div 22.50 DPO ratio 49%
ROE 24.9% PBT Margin 16.3% PAT Margin 10.3%

Rec. qRev 114389 q-q % chg -18% y-y% chq 16%
Rec qPbt 18654 q-q % chg -22% y-y% chq 182%
Rec. qEps 8.97 q-q % chg -32% y-y% chq 320%
ttm-Eps 46.15 q-q % chg 17% y-y% chq 145%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 9.00 Avg. L PE 7.00
Forecast High Pr 5.30 Forecast Low Pr 3.10 Recent Severe Low Pr 3.10
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 5% Downside 95%
One Year Appreciation Potential 0% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 6%

CPE/SPE 1.41 P/NTA 2.81 NTA 1.85 SPE 8.00 Rational Pr 3.69


Decision: Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr