Padini

Date announced 29/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 1 FYE 30/06/2011

STOCK  PADINI  C0DE  7052 

Price $ 4.98 Curr. ttm-PE 11.12 Curr. DY 4.52%
LFY Div 22.50 DPO ratio 49%
ROE 23.3% PBT Margin 18.8% PAT Margin 13.4%

Rec. qRev 136641 q-q % chg 19% y-y% chq -3%
Rec qPbt 25651 q-q % chg 38% y-y% chq -5%
Rec. qEps 13.95 q-q % chg 56% y-y% chq -9%
ttm-Eps 44.79 q-q % chg -3% y-y% chq 64%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 9.00 Avg. L PE 7.00
Forecast High Pr 5.14 Forecast Low Pr 3.73 Recent Severe Low Pr 3.73

Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 12% Downside 88%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 6%

CPE/SPE 1.39 P/NTA 2.59 NTA 1.92 SPE 8.00 Rational Pr 3.58


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 5.32
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week -1.1% 13 Weeks 11.3%
4 Weeks 31.7% 52 Weeks 72.7%

Padini Holdings Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: PADINI Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Apparel & Textiles
Sub Industry: Apparel Manufacturers

2010 Sales 520,880,000
(Year Ending Jan 2011).
Employees: 1,762

Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 700,016,240
Fiscal Yr Ends: June Shares Outstanding: 131,582,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 59,124,294


Day's Range: 4.97 - 5.00
52wk Range: 3.03 - 5.52
Volume: 6,000