Parkson

Date announced 15/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 1 FYE 30/06/2011

STOCK Parkson C0DE  5657 
Price $ 5.76 Curr. ttm-PE 20.01 Curr. DY 1.04%
LFY Div 6.00 DPO ratio 22%
ROE 14.6% PBT Margin 25.6% PAT Margin 11.6%

Rec. qRev 656485 q-q % chg 6% y-y% chq 2%
Rec qPbt 168360 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq 9%
Rec. qEps 7.28 q-q % chg 33% y-y% chq 14%
ttm-Eps 28.79 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq -3%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 20.00 Avg. L PE 17.00
Forecast High Pr 7.35 Forecast Low Pr 4.64 Recent Severe Low Pr 4.64
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 59% Downside 41%
One Year Appreciation Potential 6% Avg. yield 1%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 7%

CPE/SPE 1.08 P/NTA 2.92 NTA 1.97 SPE 18.50 Rational Pr 5.33



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr