Petronas Dagangan

Date announced 25/11/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 2 FYE 31/03/2011

STOCK PETDAG C0DE  5681 

Price $ 11.1 Curr. ttm-PE 14.64 Curr. DY 5.41%
LFY Div 60.00 DPO ratio 79%
ROE 16.3% PBT Margin 5.2% PAT Margin 3.7%

Rec. qRev 5496313 q-q % chg 1% y-y% chq 7%
Rec qPbt 284250 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 3%
Rec. qEps 20.70 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq 3%
ttm-Eps 75.80 q-q % chg 1% y-y% chq 21%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 13.00 Avg. L PE 9.00
Forecast High Pr 12.58 Forecast Low Pr 8.66 Recent Severe Low Pr 8.66
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 38% Downside 62%
One Year Appreciation Potential 3% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.33 P/NTA 2.38 NTA 4.66 SPE 11.00 Rational Pr 8.34

The Board has declared an Interim Dividend of 30 sen per share less tax at 25% and Special Interim Dividend of 10 sen per share less tax at 25%.


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr


Stock Data: Recent Stock Performance:
Current Price (11/19/2010): 11.20
(Figures in Malaysian Ringgits)
1 Week 2.9% 13 Weeks 1.8%
4 Weeks 9.2% 52 Weeks 27.4%

Petronas Dagangan Berhad Key Data:
Ticker: PETD Country: MALAYSIA
Exchanges: KUL Major Industry: Oil, Gas, Coal & Related Services
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Oil, Gas & Coal

2010 Sales 20,687,042,000
(Year Ending Jan 2011).
Employees: 1,311
Currency: Malaysian Ringgits Market Cap: 11,126,684,800
Fiscal Yr Ends: March Shares Outstanding: 993,454,000
Share Type: Ordinary Closely Held Shares: 762,064,700


Day's Range: 10.90 - 11.12
52wk Range: 8.50 - 11.90
Volume: 648,500
Avg Vol (3m): 228,805


6 months ended 30/09/2010
Cash Flow Statement


CFO  1,010.770 m
CFI  (151.474 m)
CFF (335.291 m)
Net Increase in Cash & Eq 524.005 m