Public Bank Berhad

Date Announced 18/10/2010
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK PBBANK
C0DE  1295 

Price $ 12.88
Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 15.58
Curr. DY 4.27%

Rec. qRev 2877383 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 18%
Rec qPbt 1051377 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 23%
Rec. qEps 22.35 q-q % chg 7% y-y% chq 21%
ttm-Eps 82.66 q-q % chg 5% y-y% chq 13%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5%
Avg.H PE 14.00
Avg. L PE 12.00

Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.
RISK: Upside 54% Downside 46%
One Year Appreciation Potential 3% Avg. yield 6% Avg.
Total Annual Potential Return over next 5 years 9%

CPE/SPE 1.20
P/NTA 3.70
SPE 13
Rational Pr 10.75


Decision: 
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed
Review (future acq):  Filed
Discard:  Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years:  Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr
To Prevent Loss:  Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss:    Sell and Replace when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr