Supermax

Date announced 8-Nov-10
Quarter 30/09/2010 Qtr 3
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK Supermx
C0DE  7106 

Price $ 4.39 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 8.27 Curr. DY 2.00%
LFY Div 8.80 DPO ratio 23%
ROE 26.1% PBT Margin 17.6% PAT Margin 16.2%

Rec. qRev 235104 q-q % chg 0% y-y% chq -1%
Rec qPbt 41448 q-q % chg -10% y-y% chq -11%
Rec. qEps 11.24 q-q % chg -17% y-y% chq -7%
ttm-Eps 53.08 q-q % chg -2% y-y% chq 69%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 9.00 Avg. L PE 7.00
Forecast High Pr 6.10 Forecast Low Pr 2.48 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.48
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 47% Downside 53%
One Year Appreciation Potential 8% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 11%

CPE/SPE 1.03 P/NTA 2.16 NTA 2.03 SPE 8.00 Rational Pr 4.25



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr