Topglove

Date announced 6-Oct-10
Quarter 31/08/2010 Qtr 4
FYE 31/08/2010

STOCK TOPGLOV
C0DE  7113 

Price $ 5.77 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 14.18 Curr. DY 2.77%
LFY Div 16.00 DPO ratio 39%
ROE 22.5% PBT Margin 7.8% PAT Margin 8.3%

Rec. qRev 541386 q-q % chg -3% y-y% chq 27%
Rec qPbt 42166 q-q % chg -49% y-y% chq -47%
Rec. qEps 7.30 q-q % chg -31% y-y% chq -24%
ttm-Eps 40.70 q-q % chg -5% y-y% chq 42%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 13.00 Avg. L PE 9.00
Forecast High Pr 6.75 Forecast Low Pr 4.98 Recent Severe Low Pr 4.98
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 55% Downside 45%
One Year Appreciation Potential 3% Avg. yield 4%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 7%

CPE/SPE 1.29 P/NTA 3.19 NTA 1.81 SPE 11.00 Rational Pr 4.48



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr