UMW

Date announced 20/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK UMW
C0DE  4588

Price $ 6.83 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 13.38 Curr. DY 2.93%
LFY Div 20.00 DPO ratio 59%
ROE 14.1% PBT Margin 13.5% PAT Margin 6.5%

Rec. qRev 3282075 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 27%
Rec qPbt 442266 q-q % chg 45% y-y% chq 138%
Rec. qEps 18.74 q-q % chg 59% y-y% chq 159%
ttm-Eps 51.04 q-q % chg 29% y-y% chq 34%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5%
Avg.H PE 12.00
Avg. L PE 8.00
Forecast High Pr 7.82
Forecast Low Pr 5.50
Recent Severe Low Pr 5.50
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 43% Downside 57%
One Year Appreciation Potential 3%; Avg. yield 6%
Avg.Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 9%

CPE/SPE 1.34
P/NTA 1.89
NTA 3.62
SPE 10.00
Rational Pr 5.10



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed Review (future acq): Filed Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy Mid. 1/3 Maybe Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr