Padini Holdings Berhad

 • Direct beneficiary of uptick in consumer spending
We recently hosted a corporate presentation by Padini Holdings (Padini),
a well-established retailer of fashion apparel and  footwear, and came
away with a positive medium-term outlook on the company. Strong brand
recognition and large nationwide store network place Padini in favourable
position to capitalise on any strengthening consumer sentiment and
spending.

• Padini Corp and Vincci Ladies continue to lead 
Padini Corp and Vincci Ladies are the most significant subsidiaries in
Padini Group, together constituting 70% of FY10 group revenue and 84%
of pretax profit. Padini-branded clothing and footwear with the Vincci label
have consistently resonated with Malaysian consumers thanks to the
group’s effective merchandising strategy.

• Extending ‘Brands Outlet’ store network 
The group is expanding its value proposition ‘Brands Outlet’ stores in
response to positive reception by shoppers and to expand its store
network to urban areas beyond the highly saturated Klang Valley. There
are currently 11 ‘Brands Outlet’ stores that account for 27% of the group’s
total retail floor space.

• Potential for dividend upside 
Given Padini’s minimal capex requirements in the 2-year forward forecast
period, we believe that the company could pay out higher dividends than
the 15.0 sen DPS in FY10 (or 32% dividend payout ratio).

• Fair value of RM5.33 
Utilising a target P/E of 10x applied to CY11 EPS of 53.3 sen, we arrive at
a fair value of RM5.33. Our target P/E is based on a 2x premium to Bonia
Corp, Padini’s closest comparable. We believe that Padini deserves to
trade at higher valuations because it has a larger  store network and
higher margin product mix (with larger proportion of fashion apparel).
Target P/E is lower than Padini’s 12-year historical average P/E of 11.7x
(FY99-FY10) however, as we anticipate moderation in earnings growth
moving forward. We have projected a 3-year net profit CAGR (FY10-12) of
6.4%. Our fair value indicates a potential 9% upside to current share
price.


http://www.ecmmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2010/12/PAD_101221_Non-rated.pdf