The typical value of a home in Britain will lose a quarter of its value by the end of this year, dropping to just £150,000, economists have warned.
Halifax, Britain’s biggest mortgage lender, said average house prices dropped to £162,435 in November, down 1.3 per cent on the previous month and 1.6 per cent on the same period a year ago.
But economists forecast that values will drop even further this year to just £150,000 amid concerns about the economy.
It would mean a total drop of £50,000 in prices from the beginning of the credit crisis in August 2007, when they stood at £199,612.
Martin Ellis, housing economist at Halifax, said: “Uncertainty about the economy, weak earnings growth and higher taxes could put some downward pressure on demand.”
It comes amid growing speculation that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year to combat higher inflation.
Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight, said: “Any early interest rate hike in 2011 would be bad news for the housing market and likely to weigh down on prices - not just the rate rise itself but the impact on potential house buyers’ psychology resulting from the fact that they would be facing rising interest rates.
“Critical to the development of house prices over the coming months will be the amount of houses coming on to the market, mortgage availability, how well the economy and jobs hold up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, and what happens with interest rates."
It comes as separate figures suggested that almost a third of home owners are on their lender’s standard variable rate – the rate they automatically slip onto when their initial deal comes to an end – and have no plans to change it.
In some cases, the rate will be cheaper than the cost of an alternative mortgage. In other cases, home owners will simply not be able to afford a deal elsewhere due to tight lending criteria.
The level has risen to 31 per cent, up from 26 per cent a year earlier, according to financial website unbiased.
Estate agents suggested the seasonal slowdown in the housing market was accentuated at the end of last year due to the bad weather.
Peter Rollings managing director of estate agent Marsh & Parsons, said: “The worst snowfall in a century reined in the number of buyers hitting the streets and viewing potential properties across many areas of the country.”
However, despite the drop in prices, separate research suggested the number of properties sold last year may have actually risen by 2.6 per cent.
Estimates suggest 630,000 properties were sold last year, up from 614,000 the previous year, according to property website Globrix.
Jennifer Warner, of Globrix, said: “The key driver for the market in 2011 will be mortgage lending activity. Mortgage availability is key to a healthy property market, particularly for first time buyers. The expected rate increase from the Bank of England, which now seems a question of when rather than if, will also shape the market this year, possibly leading to lower prices and greater affordability for first time buyers.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8250303/Typical-house-price-to-lose-a-quarter-of-its-value.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/8250303/Typical-house-price-to-lose-a-quarter-of-its-value.html