Recession-proof fashion retailers do better than others during a bear market
Written by Lim Siew May of theedgemalaysia.com
Tuesday, 06 December 2011 09:43
KUALA LUMPUR: In Malaysia, only three home-grown fashion brands — Padini Holdings Bhd, Bonia Corp Bhd and Voir Holdings Bhd — are listed on Bursa Malaysia, but they have been surprisingly resilient. Each remained profitable during the 2008 financial crisis.
Padini Holdings Bhd, which is widely covered by analysts, was the first retailer to list, doing so in 1998. It retails fashionwear and accessories through its brands — Seed, Vincci, P&Co, PDI, Padini Authentics Miki and Padini.
In early November, it boasted the highest market capitalisation [among the three] of RM657.91 million, and profits have been growing consistently y-o-y from 2001 to 2010. It has consistently paid out dividends of at least 30% of its net income, and for FY2011, it is expected to distribute RM26.3 million (34.7%) out of its net profit of RM75.7 million.
The market capitalisation of Bonia Corp Bhd, which retails branded leatherwear, footwear as well as men’s apparel and accessories, is about half of Padini’s at RM328.56 million. It made a net profit of RM33.55 million for FY2010. The company owns the Bonia, Sembonia and Carlo Rino brands and the licence for international labels including Santa Barbara Polo and Valentino Rudy.
Voir Holdings Bhd has the smallest market capitalisation of RM60.60 million. The company owns brands such as VOIR, Applemints and SODA as well as licensed international brand Diadora. Besides selling women’s apparel, shoes and accessories, the company also designs and sells clothes for men and children. It made a net profit of RM7.7 million for FY2010.
Compared with luxury fashion houses listed in Hong Kong, local fashion stocks are much cheaper. The three companies are trading at price-earning ratios (PERs) of between 8.42 times and 8.75 times. In comparison, Italian luxury brand Prada SpA, which listed in Hong Kong in June, is trading at 28 times.
Recession-proof?
The possibility of a double-dip recession for the global economy is certainly alarming but the stock market will offer great bargains. Certain resilient industries do better than others during a bear market.
There are two opposing schools of thought on the prospects of non-utilitarian stocks such as fashion during a recession. On one hand, branded wear can be seen as luxury, not a basic need, which is eliminated from a tightened budget.
The opposing view is that people tend to seek an escape from hard times and are more likely to indulge in shopping. The latter helps to explain the resilience of Padini, Voir and Bonia during the last financial crisis.
An analyst, who requests anonymity, is sanguine about the local fashion stocks. “Malaysians love sales. Fashion companies can spur customer spending via sales and promotions, even though they do incur marketing costs. I believe that our middle-class fashion range will fare better than high-end fashion stocks in Hong Kong, given their affordability.”
A consumer-sector analyst, however, is cautious: “Fashion is not a staple. I believe the sector will be affected by the current conditions in the global economy. People will hold back during uncertain times.”
Here are ways to evaluate a solid fashion stock, regardless of whether we will see a global.
Branding counts
Branding is said to be the most important component of a fashion retailer. “Everyone has heard of Padini. It is available at almost every retail outlets across the Klang Valley, and people usually prefer to stick to an established brand,” says the first analyst.
“Padini offers a wide range of products for various market segments, and they are affordably priced. When a fresh graduate needs to buy working clothes, he buys from Padini instead of foreign fashion brands such as Zara, which costs 50% more.”
Is the company actively growing its brand? This is reflected by mergers and acquisitions as well as decisions to spend 2% to 3% of its revenue on marketing initiatives and/or aggressive openings of more outlets. “Organic growth will not result in a premium valuation for fashion stocks,” says the analyst.
A HwangDBS Vickers Research report indicates that there is a correlation between a newly opened store and the company’s revenue stream. For instance, when Padini expanded its retail space by more than 50%, or 143,955 sq ft, in 2008.
Padini is setting its sights on rural areas like Sabah, where there is enhanced purchasing power. The group has started selling its affordably priced garments in the Brands Outlet in Suria Sabah in Kota Kinabalu, 1st Avenue Mall in Penang, as well as 1Borneo Shopping Mall and 1 Multi-Concept Store in Sabah.
“Residents don’t really have access to swanky and established malls. I believe Padini should perform relatively well there,” says the analyst. Brands Outlet, a Padini standalone store, has been instrumental in driving the company’s revenue growth, contributing a compounded annual growth rate of 85% since its debut in 2007, says the HwangDBS Vickers Research report.
Starting a standalone store is also a good move for the fashion company. “When you move beyond [renting space in a department store], you will have more space and better control over your operations. And if your brand is the anchor tenant, you can probably negotiate for favourable rental terms,” says the consumer-sector analyst.
Increasing same-store sales
Same-store sales are used in the retail industry to reflect the difference in revenue generated by the retail chain’s existing outlets over a certain period of time. This statistic differentiates between sales generated from new stores and those from existing stores.
“This metric shows the organic growth of a store. New outlets usually reach their peaks after three or four years, then you won’t see fantastic double-digit growth,” says the analyst.
Growth of same-store sales reflects the management’s acumen in predicting fashion trends while the reverse signifies inaccurate expectations or a saturated market.
Unfortunately, growth figures are not readily accessible to retail investors, although analyst’s reports or news reports may feature them. To compensate, evaluate the company’s financial performance.
“It all boils down to the company’s ability to give its customers what they want. Look at the big picture. You can assess its ability to meet customers’ demand through the sales figures in the financial statements. You can also go to the stores and observe the foot traffic,” suggests the analyst.
Expect months of lower sales. According to HwangDBS Vickers Research’s report, Padini sees lower sales during non-festive seasons, such as in 2Q2011. However, the report explains that this is a common characteristic of the retail industry.
Stocks and threats
Holding a high volume of inventory for a long time is not a good sign for a fashion retailer. Inventory takes up storage space and affects liquidity. High inventory may also compel a company to significantly mark down its out-of-season stocks, leading to compressed margins.
To cater for festive celebrations such as Christmas and Chinese New Year, there will be a surge in inventory, the analyst says. “The inventory volume depends heavily on the management’s view. If it takes a sanguine view of the economy, it will increase stocks accordingly.
“However, if a great deal of the inventory in December does not translate into sales by March or April, it can mean a weak quarterly financial performance for the company.”
Rising raw-material (such as cotton) costs and the minimum wage hike in China are some of the key threats facing fashion retailers around the world. Gross margin, which measures the percentage of each ringgit of revenue retained as gross profit, is used to evaluate the management’s ability to manage cost.
The higher it is, the more the company is able to retain each ringgit of revenue to meet other business costs and obligations. A reduced gross margin can be a result of plunging revenue and/or increased business costs — all of which impact earnings.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/personal-finance/197332-malaysians-love-shopping-so-recession-proof-fashion-retailers-do-better-than-others-during-a-bear-market.html
Written by Lim Siew May of theedgemalaysia.com
Tuesday, 06 December 2011 09:43
KUALA LUMPUR: In Malaysia, only three home-grown fashion brands — Padini Holdings Bhd, Bonia Corp Bhd and Voir Holdings Bhd — are listed on Bursa Malaysia, but they have been surprisingly resilient. Each remained profitable during the 2008 financial crisis.
Padini Holdings Bhd, which is widely covered by analysts, was the first retailer to list, doing so in 1998. It retails fashionwear and accessories through its brands — Seed, Vincci, P&Co, PDI, Padini Authentics Miki and Padini.
In early November, it boasted the highest market capitalisation [among the three] of RM657.91 million, and profits have been growing consistently y-o-y from 2001 to 2010. It has consistently paid out dividends of at least 30% of its net income, and for FY2011, it is expected to distribute RM26.3 million (34.7%) out of its net profit of RM75.7 million.
The market capitalisation of Bonia Corp Bhd, which retails branded leatherwear, footwear as well as men’s apparel and accessories, is about half of Padini’s at RM328.56 million. It made a net profit of RM33.55 million for FY2010. The company owns the Bonia, Sembonia and Carlo Rino brands and the licence for international labels including Santa Barbara Polo and Valentino Rudy.
Voir Holdings Bhd has the smallest market capitalisation of RM60.60 million. The company owns brands such as VOIR, Applemints and SODA as well as licensed international brand Diadora. Besides selling women’s apparel, shoes and accessories, the company also designs and sells clothes for men and children. It made a net profit of RM7.7 million for FY2010.
Compared with luxury fashion houses listed in Hong Kong, local fashion stocks are much cheaper. The three companies are trading at price-earning ratios (PERs) of between 8.42 times and 8.75 times. In comparison, Italian luxury brand Prada SpA, which listed in Hong Kong in June, is trading at 28 times.
Recession-proof?
The possibility of a double-dip recession for the global economy is certainly alarming but the stock market will offer great bargains. Certain resilient industries do better than others during a bear market.
There are two opposing schools of thought on the prospects of non-utilitarian stocks such as fashion during a recession. On one hand, branded wear can be seen as luxury, not a basic need, which is eliminated from a tightened budget.
The opposing view is that people tend to seek an escape from hard times and are more likely to indulge in shopping. The latter helps to explain the resilience of Padini, Voir and Bonia during the last financial crisis.
An analyst, who requests anonymity, is sanguine about the local fashion stocks. “Malaysians love sales. Fashion companies can spur customer spending via sales and promotions, even though they do incur marketing costs. I believe that our middle-class fashion range will fare better than high-end fashion stocks in Hong Kong, given their affordability.”
A consumer-sector analyst, however, is cautious: “Fashion is not a staple. I believe the sector will be affected by the current conditions in the global economy. People will hold back during uncertain times.”
Here are ways to evaluate a solid fashion stock, regardless of whether we will see a global.
Branding counts
Branding is said to be the most important component of a fashion retailer. “Everyone has heard of Padini. It is available at almost every retail outlets across the Klang Valley, and people usually prefer to stick to an established brand,” says the first analyst.
“Padini offers a wide range of products for various market segments, and they are affordably priced. When a fresh graduate needs to buy working clothes, he buys from Padini instead of foreign fashion brands such as Zara, which costs 50% more.”
Is the company actively growing its brand? This is reflected by mergers and acquisitions as well as decisions to spend 2% to 3% of its revenue on marketing initiatives and/or aggressive openings of more outlets. “Organic growth will not result in a premium valuation for fashion stocks,” says the analyst.
A HwangDBS Vickers Research report indicates that there is a correlation between a newly opened store and the company’s revenue stream. For instance, when Padini expanded its retail space by more than 50%, or 143,955 sq ft, in 2008.
Padini is setting its sights on rural areas like Sabah, where there is enhanced purchasing power. The group has started selling its affordably priced garments in the Brands Outlet in Suria Sabah in Kota Kinabalu, 1st Avenue Mall in Penang, as well as 1Borneo Shopping Mall and 1 Multi-Concept Store in Sabah.
“Residents don’t really have access to swanky and established malls. I believe Padini should perform relatively well there,” says the analyst. Brands Outlet, a Padini standalone store, has been instrumental in driving the company’s revenue growth, contributing a compounded annual growth rate of 85% since its debut in 2007, says the HwangDBS Vickers Research report.
Starting a standalone store is also a good move for the fashion company. “When you move beyond [renting space in a department store], you will have more space and better control over your operations. And if your brand is the anchor tenant, you can probably negotiate for favourable rental terms,” says the consumer-sector analyst.
Increasing same-store sales
Same-store sales are used in the retail industry to reflect the difference in revenue generated by the retail chain’s existing outlets over a certain period of time. This statistic differentiates between sales generated from new stores and those from existing stores.
“This metric shows the organic growth of a store. New outlets usually reach their peaks after three or four years, then you won’t see fantastic double-digit growth,” says the analyst.
Growth of same-store sales reflects the management’s acumen in predicting fashion trends while the reverse signifies inaccurate expectations or a saturated market.
Unfortunately, growth figures are not readily accessible to retail investors, although analyst’s reports or news reports may feature them. To compensate, evaluate the company’s financial performance.
“It all boils down to the company’s ability to give its customers what they want. Look at the big picture. You can assess its ability to meet customers’ demand through the sales figures in the financial statements. You can also go to the stores and observe the foot traffic,” suggests the analyst.
Expect months of lower sales. According to HwangDBS Vickers Research’s report, Padini sees lower sales during non-festive seasons, such as in 2Q2011. However, the report explains that this is a common characteristic of the retail industry.
Stocks and threats
Holding a high volume of inventory for a long time is not a good sign for a fashion retailer. Inventory takes up storage space and affects liquidity. High inventory may also compel a company to significantly mark down its out-of-season stocks, leading to compressed margins.
To cater for festive celebrations such as Christmas and Chinese New Year, there will be a surge in inventory, the analyst says. “The inventory volume depends heavily on the management’s view. If it takes a sanguine view of the economy, it will increase stocks accordingly.
“However, if a great deal of the inventory in December does not translate into sales by March or April, it can mean a weak quarterly financial performance for the company.”
Rising raw-material (such as cotton) costs and the minimum wage hike in China are some of the key threats facing fashion retailers around the world. Gross margin, which measures the percentage of each ringgit of revenue retained as gross profit, is used to evaluate the management’s ability to manage cost.
The higher it is, the more the company is able to retain each ringgit of revenue to meet other business costs and obligations. A reduced gross margin can be a result of plunging revenue and/or increased business costs — all of which impact earnings.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/personal-finance/197332-malaysians-love-shopping-so-recession-proof-fashion-retailers-do-better-than-others-during-a-bear-market.html
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