Saturday, 7 February 2026

Tong's Portfolio of The Edge as at January 21, 2026

Analysis of Malaysian Investment Portfolio (As of Jan 21, 2026)

Portfolio Overview

  • Initial Capital: RM200,000 (Oct 10, 2014)

  • Current Portfolio Value: RM403,339.4 (realised profits/losses) + current holdings

  • Cash Balance: RM273,139.4 (significant liquidity)

  • Time Horizon: ~11.3 years

  • Benchmark: FBM KLCI (down 6.8% since portfolio inception)

Key Observations

1. Outstanding Performance vs. Market

  • Portfolio Outperformance: +214.3% vs. FBM KLCI (remarkable achievement)

  • Absolute Growth: Portfolio more than doubled initial capital despite market decline

  • Defensive Positioning: Significant cash cushion (≈40% of portfolio value based on context)

2. Stock-Specific Analysis

Strong Performers:

  • United Plantations Bhd: +87.3% gain (star performer)

  • Hong Leong Industries Bhd: +23.3% gain

  • Malayan Banking Bhd: +14.1% gain (solid blue-chip returns)

Moderate/Neutral:

  • Kim Loong Resources Bhd: +3.2% gain

  • LPI Capital Bhd: +2.6% gain

Significant Loss:

  • Insas Bhd – Warrants C: -96.4% loss (near-total write-off)

    • Warrants are high-risk instruments

    • Current price RM0.015 suggests possible expiration or fundamental issues

3. Portfolio Composition & Strategy

  • Concentrated Holdings: Only 6 equity positions + substantial cash

  • Sector Diversity: Plantations, banking, insurance, manufacturing, resources

  • Quality Bias: Holdings like Maybank, LPI Capital, United Plantations are established Malaysian blue-chips

  • Value Investing Traits: Focus on fundamental companies rather than speculative growth

4. Risk Management

  • Large Cash Position: Provides flexibility and risk buffer

  • Asymmetric Outcome: One major loss (Insas warrants) balanced by several winners

  • Disciplined Approach: Holding through market cycles (2014-2026 includes COVID period)

Strengths

  1. Exceptional relative performance in a declining market

  2. High-quality stock selection (4 of 6 positions profitable)

  3. Significant cash reserve for opportunities or protection

  4. Long-term discipline (11+ year holding period)

Concerns & Considerations

  1. Insas Warrants loss: Questions about warrant strategy or position sizing

  2. Concentration risk: Few positions drive majority of returns

  3. Market timing element: Large cash position suggests caution about current valuations

  4. Limited growth stocks: Portfolio leans toward value/dividend plays

Recommendations

  1. Review warrant strategy: Given near-total loss, reconsider speculative instruments

  2. Consider partial profit-taking: On United Plantations (+87%) given concentrated gains

  3. Deploy cash strategically: In quality companies during market weakness

  4. Maintain discipline: Current approach has clearly worked well versus benchmark

  5. Document rationale: For both successful picks and the Insas loss for learning

Conclusion

This portfolio demonstrates successful long-term value investing in the Malaysian market. Despite one significant loss, the overall strategy has delivered exceptional outperformance (+214% vs. KLCI) through careful stock selection, patience, and maintaining ample liquidity. The investor shows discipline holding through market cycles and resisting over-diversification. The substantial cash position suggests either caution about current market levels or preparation for new opportunities—both prudent given the 11-year investment horizon and market context.

Note: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but this portfolio's approach offers valuable insights into disciplined Malaysian equity investing.

No comments:

Post a Comment