Bullbear Buffett

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS)***** Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods***** Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

▼

Showing posts with label decision tree. Show all posts

Showing posts with label decision tree. Show all posts

Saturday, 21 November 2009

Understanding Risk and Decision Making

Key ideas: Probability is the likelihood of an outcome. Probabilities are expressed numerically, but are often subjective. Impact is th...

Making Life Decisions: appraising cost, risk and expected value, with limited information about the future

The dice games are simple parallels with the type of decision we take every day in our lives. Investments offer the most direct comparison....

Decision making: Risk, Probability, Impact, Subjectivity, Decision trees and Expected Value

You are invited to play dice games version A and version B. In this game, you bet $1 on the throw of a dice. Throwing a six wins a prize; ...

Friday, 20 November 2009

Using Decision trees to see how probability and impact relate to each other

We can use the simple example of a dice game. In this game, you bet $1 on the throw of a dice. Throwing a six wins a prize; throwing any o...

View web version

About Me

investbullbear

View my complete profile

Powered by Blogger.