I participate in a forum for investors. In this forum, a particular Mr. C promotes many stocks very aggressively. He encouraged people to buy his selected stocks. However, over the many years, his selections were not particularly outstanding. There were gainers and also losers. However, he would harped and repeatedly showed off his winners, hiding or ignoring his losers in frequent subsequent posts. He is very prolific in his posts, posting many threads and replies daily. Please discuss what might be the intentions of this promoter Mr. C in his participation in this forum.
This is a textbook profile of a certain archetype found on almost every retail investing forum. Given the specific behaviors you described—aggressive promotion, selective memory, hyper-prolific posting, and mediocre long-term results—Mr. C’s intentions likely fall into a blend of financial self-interest, psychological ego gratification, and statistical manipulation.
Here is a breakdown of what is likely driving his participation:
1. Financial Self-Interest (The "Pump and Dump" / Exit Liquidity)
This is the most common and cynical intention.
Mr. C almost certainly holds positions in the stocks he promotes before he posts about them. By aggressively talking them up, he creates buying pressure from forum members, allowing him to sell his own shares into that temporary hype (at a higher price).
Given that he is "prolific," he likely uses a shotgun approach: he buys small positions in 50 different micro-caps or volatile stocks, promotes them all, and takes quick profits on any that pop due to the forum's collective buying power. The losers are simply discarded.
2. The "Guru" Grift (Monetizing the Audience)
Even if he isn't directly trading against you, his ultimate goal may be to build a brand to monetize later.
By posting thousands of times, he gains name recognition. His intention is to accumulate enough followers to eventually funnel them into a paid newsletter, a private Discord, a "signals" service, or a YouTube channel.
To sustain this, he must appear infallible. Highlighting winners creates the illusion of genius, which is the marketing hook he uses to convert forum-lurkers into paying customers. The losers are hidden because they would break the spell and reduce his subscription conversion rate.
3. Psychological Ego and Cognitive Dissonance (Self-Deception)
Not all promoters are malicious; some are genuinely delusional.
Over many years, he has invested his identity into being "the stock expert" on that forum. Admitting his losers are random would be an ego-shattering admission of mediocrity.
He engages in confirmation bias: he actively seeks out and remembers his wins, while using mental accounting to rationalize his losses (e.g., "The market was manipulated," "I said sell at the peak," or "It's a long-term hold"). He may genuinely believe his own hype because his brain has edited out the painful failures to protect his self-esteem.
4. Statistical Exploitation (Survivorship Bias)
This is the mathematical reality of his behavior.
If he promotes 100 stocks a year over 10 years, that is 1,000 picks. Even a blind chimpanzee throwing darts will have roughly 40% to 50% winners in a bull market.
By random chance alone, he will have a handful of 5x or 10x "baggers." His intention is to exploit survivorship bias—he drags those 5 or 10 massive winners out into the spotlight every single day, making them represent his entire career, while the 990 losers quietly fade into the forum's archive. He is betting on the fact that new members join daily and haven't seen the old losing calls.
5. The "Prolific" Strategy (Overwhelming the Opposition)
Why does he post so much? Quantity is a deliberate tactic to achieve specific goals:
Burial of evidence: By starting dozens of threads and replies daily, he pushes old, losing threads off the front page. Newcomers can't easily search for his failed picks because his successful hype-threads are constantly bumped to the top.
The Mere-Exposure Effect: Psychologically, humans develop a false sense of trust and familiarity with things they see repeatedly. By flooding the forum, he makes his username synonymous with "stock market," conditioning members to associate him with authority, regardless of his actual track record.
Drowning out critics: If someone posts a rebuttal or highlights a loser, his massive daily output buries that negative post within hours, preventing the community from forming a consensus against him.
6. Trolling / Social Experimentation
In rare cases, prolific promoters enjoy the chaos and the "god-like" feeling of moving a stock price with a single post. Watching retail investors scramble to buy his picks gives him a sense of power and control over the forum's micro-economy. The losers don't matter to him because he doesn't feel the financial pain of the followers who bought them.
What this means for you and other forum members:
Mr. C’s primary intention is not to help you make money; it is to serve himself—either financially (through selling his bags or subscriptions) or emotionally (through validation).
The ultimate proof is in your own observation: over many years, his selections were not outstanding. If he were truly a genius, after 10 years of posting, he would be a billionaire and wouldn't need to spend 10 hours a day on a retail forum.
Practical advice: Start a private "Mr. C Scorecard" in a spreadsheet. Track every single pick he makes on the day he makes it, including the entry price. Do not track the ones he brags about retroactively. After 6 months, you will mathematically prove that he is no better than a coin flip—and you can safely use him as a contrarian indicator (i.e., when he buys, you sell, or when he hypes, you stay away).
