Thursday, 12 February 2026

Health Insurance Reset: Base MHIT plan by Bank Negara Malaysia

 





















# Base MHIT plan by Bank Negara Malaysia – a step in the right direction


Last month, Bank Negara Malaysia released a White Paper on the proposed Base MHIT (Medical and Health Insurance/Takaful) Plan as part of the RESET strategy. RESET is a private healthcare reform framework led by the Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry of Health (MoH) and Bank Negara to tackle rising medical cost inflation and improve affordability, conceptualised in the aftermath of the public uproar over steep premium hikes in late 2024.

Our quick take on the base MHIT plan? It is a step in the right direction, addressing some, if not all, of the most pressing issues (finer details still to be announced).

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## What is the Base MHIT Plan?

The base MHIT plan is designed to be the lowest denominator product — a standalone medical protection plan that balances medical coverage with affordability. The plan caps the annual policy limit at RM100,000, with standardised benefits that cover the costs associated with common complex admissions in private hospitals.

The table below shows a simple comparison between the base MHIT plan and a typical medical insurance policy in the market today:



















| Target group | Ages 21–35 | General |


The premium for the base MHIT plan is much lower because of its lower claim limit and benefits.

Remember our “Airline model” framework for the insurance industry (“High cost of private healthcare — who is responsible and how to mitigate?” [The Take, March 3, 2025]), where there is a basic package (economy class) for the masses and premium packages (business and first class) for those who can afford to pay more? Well, this is the economy class plan.














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## Why This Makes Sense

As we wrote previously, not everyone needs an “all-in” unlimited claims policy that must necessarily come at higher premiums. Based on statistics, **99% of medical claims are below RM55,225** with the median claim being only **RM5,695**. In other words, RM100,000 is more than sufficient to cover most instances, save for the 1% cases of highly complex and costly treatments that can be managed within the public healthcare system.

Its design as a standalone MHIT product — rather than the typical investment-linked medical riders — makes it less risky, more transparent and simpler for consumers to understand.

For those who prefer to have the choice of additional benefits (such as critical illness and accidental death payouts and investment), treatment options, better non-medical services and so on — and can afford to pay higher premiums — they can opt for the “business” and “first class” MHIT plans currently offered by insurers.

**The point is that this base MHIT plan gives consumers a choice** — to pay for the basic insurance coverage or pay extra for more “frills”.

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## Why Regulatory Intervention Is Necessary

It is highly unlikely that insurers will voluntarily offer and promote a basic plan with lower premiums — they are profit-maximising private entities. Indeed, **70% of all policies are currently investment-linked**. Insurers and agents market these plans more aggressively, as they come with higher premiums, and bundle all the “bells and whistles” to create a perception of value for money.

Since the base MHIT plan is the **lowest-denominator product** to be offered by all insurers, it means there will be **volume**. In actuarial mathematics, volume matters: a larger insured pool (risk pooling improves statistical predictability) means a lower cost per unit. Therefore, **the government is right to step in** — by mandating that all insurers offer this base MHIT plan alongside their own plans — to enable a lower sustainable cost policy.

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## Affordability and Sustainability

It is crucial that consumers understand that **the best insurance policy is not the one with the most benefits, but one they can sustainably afford for life**, bearing in mind that premiums will continue to rise with medical cost inflation.

In addition, knowing their policy has a lower limit will instil discipline in patients when seeking treatments. They would be more cautious and make more prudent healthcare decisions to preserve their benefits for future needs.

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## Co-payment: Encouraging Discipline and Responsibility

The base MHIT plan also includes **mandatory co-payment** — requiring the policyholder to bear a portion of the total medical bill before insurance claims kick in. This is another feature we have previously highlighted as important to minimise the **“buffet syndrome”** that is driving up medical healthcare costs for everyone (the individual benefits while all policyholders share the cost).

The co-payment amount is structured into two tiers, depending on the hospital (lists to be announced later):

- **Tier-1 hospitals**: Deductible cap of RM500 per disability

- **Tier-2 hospitals**: Additional co-share of 20% of the hospital bill, capped at RM3,000

**The point is**: when policyholders have to share the costs, they will be more inclined to weigh the necessity and value of each medical decision, as there is now a direct financial implication for every choice made. Co-payment pushes patients to be **active participants** in managing their healthcare expenses.

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## Standard-Plus Base MHIT Plan

Bank Negara has also proposed a **standard-plus-base MHIT plan**, which has:

- Higher annual limit: **RM300,000**

- Higher co-payment (deductibles): **RM10,000 to RM15,000**

- Cheaper premiums: **15% to 45% lower** than the base plan

Why does this work? **The higher the co-payment, the less likely policyholders will “overindulge”** on medical and hospitalisation care. This is likely to lower the total payout by insurance companies over time.

**Obviously, this is not good news for private hospitals.**

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## Overall Assessment: Constructive but Not a Silver Bullet

In short, we think the base MHIT plan is **constructive**.

Yes, it does not address all the problems plaguing our public healthcare system and escalating medical costs. It is not meant to, on its own. It is part of the **multi-pronged RESET strategy**. We await more initiatives under RESET, such as **DRG (Diagnosis-Related Groups)** to be implemented, whose features will gradually be worked into this base MHIT plan.

What it does is:

- Give more people **optionality**

- Encourage better-informed medical decisions via **co-payment**

In fact, the base MHIT plan **may not necessarily be less profitable for insurers**, as it should lower cases of overtreatment (which drives up medical cost inflation and claims) and policyholders now share part of the cost.

If managed well, we can foresee that the base MHIT plan will be **beneficial to the healthcare and insurance industries in the long run**.

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## Who Is This For?

Given that the base MHIT plan is the lowest-denominator product, **it will expand affordability to more middle-income households** — those who can afford private healthcare. 

**Note: It is not a social insurance scheme meant for everyone.**

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## A Watershed Moment: Lessons from 2024

The shocking 2024 premium hikes were a watershed, **shattering the illusion** that buying insurance young, when premiums are low, will protect one through life.

People now understand that **premiums are not fixed for life** and, therefore, one must select a policy that will continue to be affordable when premiums inevitably rise with healthcare cost inflation. We do not want to be caught again with the impossible choice of:

- Keeping a policy we can barely afford, or

- Giving it up and risking massive hospital bills should the unforeseen happen

To be sure, **premiums for the base MHIT plan are not fixed either**. But they are **set by the authorities** (presumably Bank Negara, based on actuarial principles), as are the periodic reviews — which should translate into a **higher level of governance and oversight**.

Coupled with lower claim limits, co-payment, DRG, standardisation and the fact that the plan is **not investment-linked**, future premiums are expected to be **more stable and predictable**.

---

## Our Main Concern: EPF Withdrawals

**Our main concern** is the proposal to allow people to pay for the premium with their **Employees Provident Fund (EPF) savings**.

The authorities have time and again warned that **Malaysians do not save enough for retirement** as it is. Allowing yet another route for members to withdraw from already insufficient savings is **inexplicable**.

**EPF withdrawals should be allowed only for emergencies and in old age.**

As Bank Negara has stressed, the base MHIT plan is designed for **those who can afford private healthcare**. If they cannot afford the premium for this economy class plan, then they would in all likelihood be **better off going to public hospitals**.

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## A Better Approach: Learning from Singapore

This concept of co-payment and responsibility should be expanded.

As an example, **Singapore** has two schemes:

1. **Matched Retirement Savings Scheme**

2. **Matched Medisave Scheme**

These help eligible Singaporeans boost their retirement and healthcare savings (which will be used to pay for insurance premiums and hospital bills). In essence, the government provides **matching grants (with limits)** for every dollar top-up to their Retirement/Special Accounts and Medisave Accounts, to **encourage the saving culture**.

**This is far better than simply giving poorly designed cash handouts.** When things are given for free, they lose value very quickly. Worse, it discourages personal responsibility.

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## Conclusion

The base MHIT plan is a **meaningful, targeted reform** that introduces choice, affordability, and discipline into Malaysia's private healthcare and insurance ecosystem. It is not a complete fix — but it is a solid start.

Monday, 9 February 2026

How to check a dividend stock in 6 steps



























This is an interesting and practical guide for quickly evaluating dividend stocks, shared in a social media-friendly format. Let's analyze its content.

1. Overview & Purpose

The guide aims to demystify dividend stock analysis for novice or time-pressed investors. It presents a "1 Min Analysis" framework using six key financial ratios. The accompanying text emphasizes empowerment through basic understanding and correctly frames the guide as a simplified starting point, not exhaustive research.

2. Analysis of the 6-Step Framework

The table is well-structured for clarity. Here's a discussion of each ratio:







3. Strengths of the Guide

  • Accessibility: Translates complex concepts into simple formulas and benchmarks.

  • Logical Flow: Covers yield, sustainability (two payout ratios), financial health (debt), and growth (earnings & dividends).

  • Focus on Sustainability: By emphasizing payout ratios and debt, it correctly steers investors away from chasing high-yield traps.

  • Clear Disclaimer: The repeated reminder to do your own research is legally and ethically crucial.

4. Critiques & Omissions

  • Over-Simplification: The single-number benchmarks don't account for industry differences. (e.g., REITs will have high payout ratios, tech stocks may have no dividend).

  • Snapshot vs. Trend: A single point-in-time ratio is less informative than a 5-10 year trend. Is the payout ratio rising? Is debt increasing?

  • Missing Context: No discussion of dividend history (e.g., "Dividend Aristocrat/Kings" with 25+ years of increases) or business model moat.

  • The ExxonMobil Example: It's used as the example for every ratio, which is useful for consistency but can be misleading:

    • It fails its own Dividend Growth benchmark (2.7% vs. >10%).

    • Its Payout Ratio (57.6%) is outside the suggested "good" range (20-50%).

    • This perfectly illustrates why the guide is a framework—not a strict checklist. Exxon, an energy sector giant, operates with different capital priorities and sector norms.

  • No "Total Return" Perspective: It doesn't mention that share price appreciation combined with dividends is the true measure of return. A high-yield stock with falling price can still lose you money.

5. Conclusion & Final Comment

This social media post is a high-quality, responsible piece of beginner-friendly financial education. It provides a powerful mental model for screening stocks and asking the right questions.

However, it is exactly what it says it is: a simplified overview. An investor should use this as Step 1: The Quick Screen. Stocks passing this test would then require Step 2: Deep Research, which includes:

  • Analyzing long-term trends of these ratios.

  • Understanding the company's competitive advantage.

  • Reading annual reports (CEO letter, risk factors).

  • Assessing industry and economic cycles.

  • Considering valuation (e.g., P/E ratio).

The guide’s greatest value is in promoting disciplined, ratio-driven thinking over hearsay or chasing yield. The stark contrast between the aggressive benchmarks and the ExxonMobil example is, unintentionally, its best lesson: rules of thumb guide you, but understanding the context and story behind the numbers is what makes a smart investor.

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

 


















This image from Brian Feroldi (a well-known financial educator) presents a brilliant and simple visual metaphor for what drives stock prices over different time horizons. It perfectly captures a fundamental truth of investing. Let's break it down, discuss its meaning, and expand on the concept.

Decoding the Image: A Hierarchy of Influence

The structure shows a cascade of factors, with the most frequent, noisy drivers at the bottom and the most powerful, slow-moving ones at the top.

  1. Top Tier: Decades → Earnings (The Foundation)

    • Concept: Over decades, the primary driver of a stock's value is the underlying company's earnings (profit). This is the bedrock of intrinsic value. A company that consistently grows its earnings over 20-30 years will almost certainly see its stock price rise substantially over that period, regardless of short-term volatility.

    • Expansion: This aligns with the Buffett-style philosophy of investing. It's the "weighing machine" in Ben Graham's famous analogy: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." The "weight" is the cumulative earnings and cash flow.

  2. Middle Tier: Days to Years → Sentiment (The Dominant Noise)

    • Concept: Over shorter periods—days, months, even a few years—stock prices are predominantly whipped around by market sentiment. This includes:

      • Investor Psychology: Fear and greed.

      • Macro-News: Interest rate changes, inflation reports, geopolitical events.

      • Narratives & Hype: "The AI story," "rate cut hopes," "recession fears."

      • Technical Trading: Algorithms, chart patterns, momentum.

    • Expansion: This is the "voting machine." Prices fluctuate based on what people feel a stock is worth today, which often has little to do with its long-term earnings power. This layer is why the market is volatile and often irrational in the short term.

  3. Key Insight from the Structure: The image shows "Sentiment" appearing far more often than "Earnings." This is the critical point: Most of the time, most of the price movement you see is noise (sentiment), not signal (fundamental change in value). Earnings reports are discrete events (quarterly), while sentiment is a constant, swirling tide.


Expanded Discussion & Implications for Investors

1. The Clash of Timeframes:
This framework explains why investors with different horizons talk past each other.

  • day trader lives exclusively in the "Sentiment/Days" layer. Fundamentals are nearly irrelevant to them.

  • long-term investor should focus on the "Earnings/Decades" layer and learn to ignore the sentiment-driven gyrations in between. Their job is to assess whether a company's earnings power is likely to grow over the next 10+ years.

2. Where Does "The Business" Fit In?
An implicit layer exists above "Earnings": Business Fundamentals & Competitive Advantage.

  • Earnings don't grow in a vacuum. They grow because a company has a durable moat, excellent management, innovates, and operates in a growing market. Over the very longest term (multiple decades), it's the quality and sustainability of the business itself that drives earnings, which in turn drives the stock.

3. Practical Investor Takeaways:

  • Identify Your Timeframe: Are you trading or investing? Your strategy must align with the relevant driver layer.

  • Tune Out the Noise: For long-term investors, understanding this hierarchy is liberating. It allows you to see a market crash or a hype-driven rally for what it often is: a violent shift in sentiment, not necessarily a change in the long-term earnings trajectory of your companies.

  • Use Volatility: Understanding that sentiment is fickle allows savvy investors to buy when sentiment is unjustifiably negative (creating a discount) and be cautious when sentiment is euphoric (often leading to overvaluation).

  • The Bridge Between Layers: The moments where "Sentiment" and "Earnings" intersect are crucial. A stock with great long-term earnings potential (top layer) can be held back by poor short-term sentiment (middle layer) until an earnings report (the bridge) confirms the story, potentially aligning sentiment with fundamentals.

Conclusion

Brian Feroldi's simple graphic is a powerful mental model. It reminds us that:

  • In the short term, the stock market is a narrative-driven popularity contest (Sentiment).

  • In the long term, it is an earnings-driven weighing machine (Earnings).

The greatest challenge—and opportunity—for investors is to maintain the conviction to focus on the long-term "Earnings/Decades" signal while navigating the deafening, daily "Sentiment/Days" noise. Success lies in betting on durable earnings growth and having the patience to let that top-tier driver ultimately prevail.

Ringgit Strengthening impacts on importers and exporters in Malaysia: a boon for importers and consumers, and a headwind for exporters.

The statement captures the fundamental dynamics of how exchange rates affect different segments of an open economy like Malaysia's. Let's break it down, analyze, discuss, and provide commentary.

Analysis: The Core Mechanism

The relationship is driven by purchasing power:

  • For Importers: A stronger Ringgit (e.g., MYR appreciating from 4.70 to 4.40 per USD) means each Ringgit buys more US dollars. Consequently, the Ringgit cost of importing goods priced in USD (e.g., raw materials, machinery, consumer goods, oil) decreases. This directly:

    1. Lowers input costs for manufacturers reliant on imported components.

    2. Increases profit margins if selling prices remain stable.

    3. Reduces costs for consumers on imported goods, helping to curb inflation.

    4. Makes foreign debt servicing cheaper for companies/countries with USD-denominated debt.

  • For Exporters: The opposite occurs. A stronger Ringgit makes Malaysian goods and services more expensive for foreign buyers paying in USD. This can:

    1. Reduce price competitiveness in international markets compared to rivals from countries with weaker currencies.

    2. Squeeze profit margins if they choose to keep USD prices stable to retain market share, as the converted Ringgit revenue will be lower.

    3. Particularly affect key Malaysian export sectors like electronics & electrical (E&E), palm oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and rubber products.

Discussion: Nuances and Broader Context

The simple "importers win, exporters lose" narrative is correct but requires deeper discussion.

1. The "Net Effect" on Malaysia's Economy:
Malaysia is a highly trade-oriented nation, with exports and imports each accounting for over 60% of GDP. The net impact depends on:

  • Trade Structure: Malaysia has historically run a trade surplus (exports > imports). Therefore, a broad-based Ringgit strengthening could, in theory, hurt the aggregate economy more in the short term by dampening the larger export sector.

  • Commodity Prices: Malaysia is a major exporter of commodities like palm oil and LNG. If the Ringgit strengthens because global commodity prices are high (increasing USD inflows), the benefit to exporters from high prices may offset the currency disadvantage. The Ringgit is, in fact, often correlated with oil prices.

  • Import Content of Exports: A significant portion of Malaysian exports (especially E&E) requires imported components. Cheaper imports lower production costs for exporters, partially mitigating the negative impact of a stronger currency on their final product's price.

2. Type of Importer/Exporter Matters:

  • Hedging: Large corporations often use financial instruments to hedge against currency risk, smoothing out the impact of fluctuations.

  • Pricing Power: Exporters with unique, high-value products (e.g., specialized semiconductors) may have the pricing power to pass on costs without losing significant market share.

  • Domestic Market Focus: Companies focused on the domestic market but using imported inputs are clear beneficiaries.

3. Sources of Ringgit Strengthening:
The cause of the appreciation is crucial for a full assessment:

  • If due to strong fundamentals: (e.g., higher interest rates attracting investment, sustained trade surpluses, strong economic growth) – the positive signal might outweigh sectoral pains.

  • If due to a weak USD: (broad USD weakness against all currencies) – the competitive disadvantage for Malaysian exporters is less pronounced relative to regional competitors if their currencies are also appreciating.

  • If due to speculative capital flows: ("Hot money") – the benefits may be fleeting and introduce financial stability risks if the flows reverse suddenly.

Commentary: Policy Dilemmas and Strategic View

1. Central Bank's Balancing Act: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) faces a classic dilemma. A stronger Ringgit helps control imported inflation (a major concern post-pandemic and during supply chain crises) and makes essential goods/food imports cheaper for citizens. However, BNM must also be mindful of protecting export competitiveness and the manufacturing sector, which is a huge employer. Their interventions in the forex market are often aimed at preventing excessive volatility, not targeting a specific level.

2. Long-Term Strategic Shift: The debate highlights Malaysia's need to move up the value chain. Instead of competing solely on price (which is vulnerable to currency moves), developing more high-tech, knowledge-intensive exports with inelastic demand provides more resilience against currency fluctuations. The government's focus on E&E, digital economy, and aerospace aligns with this.

3. Current Context (2023-2024): The Ringgit has experienced significant pressure, weakening to multi-decade lows against the USD, driven by aggressive US Fed rate hikes and geopolitical shifts. In this environment, the call is often for Ringgit strengthening. The discussed "pain" for exporters is a secondary concern compared to the broader national benefits of:

  • Reducing the cost-of-living crisis via cheaper imports.

  • Slowing capital outflows.

  • Restoring investor confidence in the Malaysian economy.

Conclusion

The statement is fundamentally correct in its direct mechanical impact. A stronger Ringgit is a boon for importers and consumers while presenting a headwind for exporters.

However, the overall national impact is multifaceted and depends on the magnitude, cause, and persistence of the appreciation, as well as the structure of the economy. For Malaysia today, a move towards a fairly valued and stable Ringgit is likely the optimal outcome, allowing for predictable business planning. While exporters may voice concern during appreciation phases, a deliberately weak currency is a flawed long-term strategy. The ultimate goal should be building an economy so productive and competitive that it can thrive with a strong currency, translating to greater purchasing power and a higher standard of living for its people.

Core Philosophy: Anchoring to Business Quality, Not Price

 













Core Philosophy: Anchoring to Business Quality, Not Price

The guide's foundation is pure quality-focused, long-term ownership. It echoes the philosophies of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Philip Fisher (whose quote concludes it). The central message is: your decision to sell should be tied to the underlying business's fundamentals and your personal capital needs, not to stock price movements or market noise.


Analysis of "WHEN TO SELL" (The Valid Reasons)

  1. WRONG FACTS: This is the "admit your mistake" clause. It requires intellectual honesty. If your initial thesis was flawed (you overestimated management, misunderstood the business model, or missed a weak moat), selling is correct. Pride and ego are the enemies here.

  2. CHANGING FACTS: This is crucial for dynamic investing. A business is not a static asset. Deteriorating fundamentals (falling returns on capital, poor acquisitions, ethical lapses in management) invalidate the original reason to hold. This forces continuous monitoring of the business, not the stock quote.

  3. NO CASH FOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY: This is a sophisticated portfolio management concept. It acknowledges opportunity cost. However, it comes with a major caveat: you must be highly confident that the new opportunity is significantly better. Swapping a great business for a marginally cheaper one is often a mistake.

  4. NEED CASH: A practical, non-investment reason. It underscores that investing serves life goals. This reason should be planned for (via an emergency fund or staggered liquidity needs) to avoid forced selling at inopportune times.

The common thread: Each valid reason is fundamental or personal, not technical or speculative.


Analysis of "DO NOT SELL" (The Behavioral Pitfalls)

This section brilliantly tackles the emotional reflexes that destroy long-term returns.

  1. "STOCK IS OVERPRICED":

    • Challenges Market Timing: It rightly questions the investor's ability to define "overpriced" for a compounding machine. A high P/E ratio can persist for years if growth continues.

    • Forward-Looking Perspective: It shifts focus from static multiples to the 10-year potential. This is the heart of value investing—estimating future cash flows.

    • The Compounding Argument: The "quadruple in size" example is powerful. If you expect 15% annualized returns, paying a 50% premium today might still deliver outstanding absolute returns over a decade. The real risk is selling a compounder and missing the entire journey.

  2. "OTHER REASONS": These are pure behavioral errors:

    • Anchoring to Purchase Price: Irrelevant to the stock's future. The market doesn't care what you paid.

    • "Surged 50%" / "Paper Profits": Reflects a scarcity mindset, treating profits as something to be "captured" rather as evidence of a working thesis. It confuses volatility with permanent loss.

    • "Sell to Buy Lower": Attempts to time the market, a famously losing game. The risk of the stock continuing upward and never returning to your buy price is high.


Commentary & Practical Insights

Strengths:

  • Discipline Framework: It provides a clear checklist to curb emotional selling.

  • Emphasis on Business Quality: It keeps the investor's eyes on what matters—durable competitive advantages and capable management.

  • Long-Term Orientation: It forcefully aligns the investor with the power of compounding.

Challenges & Nuances:

  • Execution is Hard: The discipline requires immense patience and the ability to watch portfolios decline 30-40% without panicking, trusting the business quality.

  • Valuation Still Matters (Subtly): While arguing against selling for being "overpriced," the philosophy doesn't advocate buying at any price. The "expected returns over 10 years" inherently includes a judgment on current price. A price so high that it guarantees poor returns for a decade is a valid reason not to buy, and arguably to sell if you own it.

  • "Almost Never" is Extreme: Philip Fisher's quote is inspirational, but few businesses remain outstanding for 50 years. Industries disrupt, scales diseconomies emerge, and management changes. The "Changing Facts" reason is the necessary counterbalance to "almost never."

  • Portfolio Concentration: This approach works best for a concentrated portfolio of high-conviction ideas. It is difficult to follow if you own 50 stocks, as you cannot know each business well enough to judge "changing facts."

Conclusion

This guide is a masterclass in investor psychology and business-focused investing. It's not a trading manual; it's an ownership manual. Its greatest value is inverting the typical investor's mindset: instead of asking "Should I take profits?" it forces the questions "Is the business still great?" and "Do I need the capital for something more pressing?"

For the individual investor, adopting this framework means:

  1. Doing deep research before buying (so you have a "fact base" to judge later).

  2. Developing the fortitude to ignore short-term price volatility.

  3. Having a systematic process to periodically review business fundamentals—not stock charts.

It’s a simple, but not easy, path to long-term wealth creation.

Saturday, 7 February 2026

Tong's Portfolio of The Edge as at January 21, 2026

Analysis of Malaysian Investment Portfolio (As of Jan 21, 2026)

Portfolio Overview

  • Initial Capital: RM200,000 (Oct 10, 2014)

  • Current Portfolio Value: RM403,339.4 (realised profits/losses) + current holdings

  • Cash Balance: RM273,139.4 (significant liquidity)

  • Time Horizon: ~11.3 years

  • Benchmark: FBM KLCI (down 6.8% since portfolio inception)

Key Observations

1. Outstanding Performance vs. Market

  • Portfolio Outperformance: +214.3% vs. FBM KLCI (remarkable achievement)

  • Absolute Growth: Portfolio more than doubled initial capital despite market decline

  • Defensive Positioning: Significant cash cushion (≈40% of portfolio value based on context)

2. Stock-Specific Analysis

Strong Performers:

  • United Plantations Bhd: +87.3% gain (star performer)

  • Hong Leong Industries Bhd: +23.3% gain

  • Malayan Banking Bhd: +14.1% gain (solid blue-chip returns)

Moderate/Neutral:

  • Kim Loong Resources Bhd: +3.2% gain

  • LPI Capital Bhd: +2.6% gain

Significant Loss:

  • Insas Bhd – Warrants C: -96.4% loss (near-total write-off)

    • Warrants are high-risk instruments

    • Current price RM0.015 suggests possible expiration or fundamental issues

3. Portfolio Composition & Strategy

  • Concentrated Holdings: Only 6 equity positions + substantial cash

  • Sector Diversity: Plantations, banking, insurance, manufacturing, resources

  • Quality Bias: Holdings like Maybank, LPI Capital, United Plantations are established Malaysian blue-chips

  • Value Investing Traits: Focus on fundamental companies rather than speculative growth

4. Risk Management

  • Large Cash Position: Provides flexibility and risk buffer

  • Asymmetric Outcome: One major loss (Insas warrants) balanced by several winners

  • Disciplined Approach: Holding through market cycles (2014-2026 includes COVID period)

Strengths

  1. Exceptional relative performance in a declining market

  2. High-quality stock selection (4 of 6 positions profitable)

  3. Significant cash reserve for opportunities or protection

  4. Long-term discipline (11+ year holding period)

Concerns & Considerations

  1. Insas Warrants loss: Questions about warrant strategy or position sizing

  2. Concentration risk: Few positions drive majority of returns

  3. Market timing element: Large cash position suggests caution about current valuations

  4. Limited growth stocks: Portfolio leans toward value/dividend plays

Recommendations

  1. Review warrant strategy: Given near-total loss, reconsider speculative instruments

  2. Consider partial profit-taking: On United Plantations (+87%) given concentrated gains

  3. Deploy cash strategically: In quality companies during market weakness

  4. Maintain discipline: Current approach has clearly worked well versus benchmark

  5. Document rationale: For both successful picks and the Insas loss for learning

Conclusion

This portfolio demonstrates successful long-term value investing in the Malaysian market. Despite one significant loss, the overall strategy has delivered exceptional outperformance (+214% vs. KLCI) through careful stock selection, patience, and maintaining ample liquidity. The investor shows discipline holding through market cycles and resisting over-diversification. The substantial cash position suggests either caution about current market levels or preparation for new opportunities—both prudent given the 11-year investment horizon and market context.

Note: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but this portfolio's approach offers valuable insights into disciplined Malaysian equity investing.