Tong's Portfolio of The Edge as at January 21, 2026

Analysis of Malaysian Investment Portfolio (As of Jan 21, 2026)

Portfolio Overview

• Initial Capital: RM200,000 (Oct 10, 2014)

• Current Portfolio Value: RM403,339.4 (realised profits/losses) + current holdings

• Cash Balance: RM273,139.4 (significant liquidity)

• Time Horizon: ~11.3 years

• Benchmark: FBM KLCI (down 6.8% since portfolio inception)

Key Observations

1. Outstanding Performance vs. Market

• Portfolio Outperformance: +214.3% vs. FBM KLCI (remarkable achievement)

• Absolute Growth: Portfolio more than doubled initial capital despite market decline

• Defensive Positioning: Significant cash cushion (≈40% of portfolio value based on context)

2. Stock-Specific Analysis

Strong Performers:

• United Plantations Bhd: +87.3% gain (star performer)

• Hong Leong Industries Bhd: +23.3% gain

• Malayan Banking Bhd: +14.1% gain (solid blue-chip returns)

Moderate/Neutral:

• Kim Loong Resources Bhd: +3.2% gain

• LPI Capital Bhd: +2.6% gain

Significant Loss:

• Insas Bhd – Warrants C: -96.4% loss (near-total write-off)

  • Warrants are high-risk instruments

  • Current price RM0.015 suggests possible expiration or fundamental issues

3. Portfolio Composition & Strategy

• Concentrated Holdings: Only 6 equity positions + substantial cash

• Sector Diversity: Plantations, banking, insurance, manufacturing, resources

• Quality Bias: Holdings like Maybank, LPI Capital, United Plantations are established Malaysian blue-chips

• Value Investing Traits: Focus on fundamental companies rather than speculative growth

4. Risk Management

• Large Cash Position: Provides flexibility and risk buffer

• Asymmetric Outcome: One major loss (Insas warrants) balanced by several winners

• Disciplined Approach: Holding through market cycles (2014-2026 includes COVID period)

Strengths

1. Exceptional relative performance in a declining market

2. High-quality stock selection (4 of 6 positions profitable)

3. Significant cash reserve for opportunities or protection

4. Long-term discipline (11+ year holding period)

Concerns & Considerations

1. Insas Warrants loss: Questions about warrant strategy or position sizing

2. Concentration risk: Few positions drive majority of returns

3. Market timing element: Large cash position suggests caution about current valuations

4. Limited growth stocks: Portfolio leans toward value/dividend plays

Recommendations

1. Review warrant strategy: Given near-total loss, reconsider speculative instruments

2. Consider partial profit-taking: On United Plantations (+87%) given concentrated gains

3. Deploy cash strategically: In quality companies during market weakness

4. Maintain discipline: Current approach has clearly worked well versus benchmark

5. Document rationale: For both successful picks and the Insas loss for learning

Conclusion

This portfolio demonstrates successful long-term value investing in the Malaysian market. Despite one significant loss, the overall strategy has delivered exceptional outperformance (+214% vs. KLCI) through careful stock selection, patience, and maintaining ample liquidity. The investor shows discipline holding through market cycles and resisting over-diversification. The substantial cash position suggests either caution about current market levels or preparation for new opportunities—both prudent given the 11-year investment horizon and market context.

Note: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but this portfolio's approach offers valuable insights into disciplined Malaysian equity investing.

Short-Term Trader versus Trend Traders

 

What is a Short-Term Trader?

This is a time-horizon definition. Short-term traders aim to profit from price movements over a period ranging from seconds to a few weeks. Their primary characteristic is that they do not invest for the long-term fundamentals of a company.

Common types include:

• Day Traders: Open and close positions within the same day.

• Swing Traders: Hold positions for several days to weeks to capture a "swing" in price.

• Scalpers: Hold positions for seconds or minutes, aiming for tiny profits on high volume.

What is Trading on Recent Trends (Trend Trading)?

This is a strategy definition. Trend traders specifically identify and follow the prevailing market direction (upward = uptrend, downward = downtrend). Their core philosophy is "the trend is your friend." They use technical analysis (charts, indicators like moving averages) to enter in the direction of the trend and exit when it shows signs of reversal.

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The Key Relationship: Overlap and Distinction

Where They Overlap (The Big Middle of the Venn Diagram):

• The most common short-term strategies (like momentum trading and many swing trading approaches) are inherently based on identifying and riding recent trends. A day trader buying a stock because it's breaking out to a new high is trading a recent trend.

• For these traders, the "short-term" is the natural habitat of "recent trends." They capitalize on the market's inertia.

Where They Differ (The Separate Parts of the Venn Diagram):

1. Not All Short-Term Traders Follow Trends:

   • Mean Reversion Traders: These short-term traders bet that a recent sharp price move is an overreaction and that the price will "revert to the mean" (average). They trade against the recent trend. (e.g., buying a stock after a steep, panic-driven sell-off).

   • Arbitrageurs: They exploit tiny price differences of the same asset on different exchanges or in different forms, with no regard to trend.

   • Event-Based Traders: They trade around earnings announcements, FDA approvals, or other news events, aiming to capture volatility spikes, which may or may not align with the existing trend.

   • Market Makers / Liquidity Providers: They profit from the bid-ask spread, not from directional price moves.

2. Not All Trend Trading is Ultra-Short Term:

• Position Traders: These traders follow long-term trends (lasting months or even years) using weekly or monthly charts. They are trend traders, but their time horizon is long-term, not short-term.

Analogy:

Think of vehicles and racing.

• "Short-Term Trader" is like being a "racer."

• "Trading Recent Trends" is like the strategy of "drafting" (closely following the car ahead to gain an advantage).

Conclusion: While a significant majority of short-term traders in stocks do trade based on recent trends, the terms are not synonymous. "Short-term trader" defines how long they hold, while "trading recent trends" defines how they decide to trade. Understanding this distinction is crucial for learning about different market strategies.

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 Using a simple, concrete analogy that clarifies the container vs. method relationship.

The Coffee Shop Analogy

Imagine a coffee shop as the container. Inside, there are many methods to make a drink.

• The Container (The Coffee Shop): This is the broad environment, structure, or category. Its purpose is to "produce beverages." It doesn't specify how to make them, just that they are made there.

• The Methods (Espresso Machine, French Press, Pour-Over, Iced Tea Brewer): These are the specific tools, processes, and strategies used within the container to achieve the goal. Each method follows a different set of rules to produce a different result.

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Applied to Trading: Container = Short-Term Trader

The label "Short-Term Trader" is a container. It's defined by a single, primary characteristic: time horizon (holding positions from seconds to a few weeks).

• What does this container tell us?

  1. They are not long-term investors (who hold for years).

  2. Their goal is to capture quick price movements, not decades of company growth or dividends.

  3. Their "workspace" is defined by short-term charts (1-minute, 5-minute, hourly), rapid news flow, and technical analysis.

Crucially, the container does NOT specify how they decide to enter or exit trades. It only defines the timeframe in which they operate. The container is empty until you choose a method to fill it.

Applied to Trading: Method = Trading Recent Trends

"Trading Recent Trends" is a specific method you can choose to use inside the container of short-term trading.

• What does this method tell us?

  1. Its core philosophy is: "The trend is your friend."

  2. Its rule is: Identify the current direction (up/down) and trade in that direction until it shows signs of reversal.

  3. It uses specific tools: trendlines, moving averages, momentum indicators (like the MACD or RSI) to execute its rules.

How They Interact: Filling the Container with a Method

This is where the practical application happens. A short-term trader (the container) must select a method to operate within that container.

• Method 1: Trend Following (Trading Recent Trends)

  • Action: The trader looks at a 15-minute chart, sees the stock is in a clear uptrend (making higher highs and higher lows). They buy on a small pullback, aiming to ride the trend for the next few hours or days.

  • Thought Process: "The recent trend is up. I will follow it."

• Method 2: Counter-Trend / Mean Reversion (A Different Method)

  • Action: The same trader looks at the same chart and sees the stock has shot up too far, too fast, and is now severely overbought according to the RSI. They sell short, betting the price will fall back toward its average.

  • Thought Process: "The recent trend has overextended. I will bet against it for a short-term reversal."

• Method 3: News/Event Scalping (Another Different Method)

  • Action: The trader sees a company is about to release earnings. They have no opinion on the trend. They place orders to buy or sell based on the immediate volatility spike after the news hits.

  • Thought Process: "I will capture the short-term volatility from this event."

All three are short-term traders (same container, same timeframe), but they are using completely different, often opposing, methods.

Why This Distinction is Critical for Learning

1. Avoids Confusion: You can't "be" a method. You operate in a timeframe (container) and use a strategy (method). Understanding this helps you categorize knowledge correctly.

2. Strategy Selection: A new trader must first choose their container ("Do I have the time and personality for short-term trading?"). Then, they must rigorously select and master a method that fits within it ("Does trend-following suit my psychology better, or do I prefer mean reversion?").

3. Analysis Clarity: When analyzing the market, you ask different questions:

   • Container Question: "What is the short-term (e.g., 1-hour) price action doing?" (Defines the battlefield).

   • Method Question (Trend-Following): "Is there a clear trend on this 1-hour chart, and where is the optimal entry to follow it?" (Defines your tactic for that battle).

In essence, the container is your arena, and the method is your chosen fighting style. You must know both to operate effectively. A trend-following method can also be used in a long-term container (by a position trader), just as a French press can be used in a cafe or at home. But the most common and natural pairing is the short-term container with the trend-following method, which is why they are so often mentioned together.

A reminder:

Short-Term Trading Vs Long-Term Trading 

Lim Chong Eu: "The Father of Malaysia's Electronics Industry and the Architect of Penang's Silicon Island."

The story of Malaysia's semiconductor industry is indeed a remarkable journey of economic transformation, and the late Lim Chong Eu plays a pivotal, foundational role in it. Let's trace the history and evaluate his legacy.

History of Malaysia's Semiconductor and Chip Industry

Phase 1: The Penang Foundation (1970s)

• Catalyst: In the late 1960s, Penang's economy was declining. As Chief Minister, Lim Chong Eu embarked on a radical, high-risk strategy to shift from entrepôt trade to export-oriented manufacturing.

• Key Moves: He established the Bayan Lepas Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in 1972, the first of its kind in Malaysia. FTZs offered tax breaks, ready infrastructure, and streamlined bureaucracy, making Penang extremely attractive to foreign investors.

• First Investors: Lim personally led investment missions to the US. In 1972, Intel and AMD (along with Bosch, Hewlett-Packard, and Clarion) set up their first offshore assembly and test (ATS) facilities in Bayan Lepas. This marked the birth of "Silicon Island."

• Model: The initial focus was on labor-intensive assembly, packaging, and testing (APT) of semiconductors—the "back-end" of the production process.

Phase 2: Growth and Vertical Integration (1980s-1990s)

• The success in Penang sparked the growth of other electronics hubs: the "Silicon Valley of the East" in Kelang Valley, and later, sites in Johor, Melaka, and Kuching.

• The industry moved up the value chain from simple assembly to more complex processes. Major global players (Intel, TI, Renesas, Infineon) expanded their Malaysian operations.

• A critical supporting ecosystem emerged: local companies (like Unisem and Globetronics) began providing specialized engineering, equipment maintenance, and secondary manufacturing services, creating a robust industrial cluster.

Phase 3: Consolidation and Diversification (2000s-2010s)

• Malaysia solidified its position as a global powerhouse in semiconductor packaging, assembly, and testing (OSAT), controlling about 13% of the global OSAT market and 7% of global semiconductor trade.

• The industry diversified beyond computers into automotive electronics, consumer devices, and telecommunications.

• Investment in R&D and Design: Multinational Corporations (MNCs) and local firms began establishing IC Design Centers and R&D facilities. The government launched initiatives like the Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association (MSIA) to foster collaboration.

Phase 4: Strategic Pivot and Geopolitical Importance (2020s-Present)

• Global Chip Shortage & CHIPS Act: The pandemic-era shortage highlighted Malaysia's critical role in the global supply chain, especially in chip testing and packaging. This attracted massive new investments.

• Moving to the "Front-End": While still dominant in the back-end, Malaysia is now making strategic forays into wafer fabrication (front-end). Infineon is building the world's largest silicon carbide power fab in Kulim, and X-FAB is expanding its foundry operations.

• National Strategic Plans: Initiatives like the National Investment Aspirations (NIA) and New Industrial Master Plan 2030 (NIMP 2030) explicitly target moving the E&E sector into complex chip design, advanced manufacturing, and integrated circuit (IC) design.

• Current Status: Today, the Electrical & Electronics (E&E) sector, driven by semiconductors, is Malaysia's largest export earner (constituting over 40% of total exports), a top investment destination, and employs over 600,000 people.

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The Role of Lim Chong Eu in the Industrialisation in Malaysia"

The Case FOR Lim Chong Eu:

1. Transformational Blueprint: Before Lim, Malaysia's industrialization was modest and commodity-based. He provided the first successful, scalable model for export-led, high-tech industrialization based on FDI.

2. Architect of a Cluster: He didn't just attract one factory; he designed an entire ecosystem (FTZs, infrastructure, policies) that became a template replicated nationwide. Penang's cluster model is a textbook case of successful industrial policy.

3. Courage and Vision: His strategy was considered a gamble. His relentless personal diplomacy with Silicon Valley CEOs was unprecedented at the time.

4. Foundational Impact: The semiconductor industry he seeded is the backbone of Malaysia's modern manufacturing economy. Every subsequent phase of Malaysia's industrial development (automotive, medical devices, aerospace) rests on the technological and skill foundation built by the E&E sector.

Important Context and Nuance:

• National vs. Regional: He is unequivocally the "Father of Penang's Industrialisation" and the "Architect of Silicon Island." His direct, hands-on influence was most profound in Penang.

• Other National Figures: Malaysia's overall industrialization was driven by federal policies under multiple Prime Ministers and Ministers of Trade. Key federal initiatives like the Look East Policy (under Dr. Mahathir Mohamad), the development of the national automotive industry (Proton), and the Vision 2020 framework were nationwide in scope and impact.

• Lim Chong Eu is probably the strongest candidate for the person who planted the seed of the single most transformative industry that changed Malaysia's economic destiny. His Penang model proved it was possible and became the nation's engine of growth.

Conclusion:

While Malaysia's industrialization narrative involves multiple key figures at the federal level, Lim Chong Eu's role is uniquely foundational and catalytic. He did not industrialize the entire nation single-handedly, but he created the prototype and ignited the spark for its most critical industrial sector.

A fitting and precise honorific would be: "The Father of Malaysia's Electronics Industry and the Architect of Penang's Silicon Island." This accurately captures his monumental contribution—the one that made Malaysia a global semiconductor powerhouse. In the broader story of Malaysian industrialization, he is undoubtedly the pioneering chapter without which the subsequent story could not have been written.

Stock Market Crashes: Behavioral vs Fundamental Analysis

 

Key Takeaways on Market Crashes

Core Insight:
Stock market crashes are not caused by a specific news event or by prices simply being “too high.” Instead, they are behavioral events, triggered by a sudden, collective shift in market psychology from greed to fear. This makes precise prediction with economic models nearly impossible.

Your Warning System: The 4 Red Flags
A crash becomes highly likely when noise trading (speculation detached from fundamentals) dominates. Watch for these intertwined danger signals:

1. Excessive Leverage: When borrowing (margin debt, corporate leverage) fuels the rally. This amplifies both gains and—more dangerously—future losses.

2. Erratic Policy Intervention: Increasingly active, unpredictable government or central bank actions that distort markets and create uncertainty.

3. Rising Scandals & Fraud: A noticeable increase in corporate fraud, accounting scandals, and corruption. This is often a late-cycle sign of stretched valuations and ethical erosion.

4. Undifferentiated Price Moves: When stocks across the board rise or fall together regardless of their individual business health. This signals trading is driven by sentiment, not fundamental analysis.

Investment Implications:

• Risk Management Over Timing: Don’t try to predict the exact top. Instead, use these red flags to assess overall market fragility and adjust your risk exposure (e.g., reduce leverage, increase cash, rebalance).

• Look Beyond Valuation Metrics: Traditional metrics (P/E ratios, etc.) alone may not signal the crash point. Monitor the behavioral environment described above.

• Prepare for Reflexivity: Understand that prices influence sentiment, which in turn influences prices—creating vicious cycles down. Ensure your portfolio can withstand a period of illiquidity and panic selling.

Bottom Line:
While you cannot mathematically pinpoint a crash, you can identify when the market is exhibiting the classic symptoms of a bubble entering its most fragile phase. When several of the four red flags are flashing, it’s time for heightened caution, not greed.

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Investor's Crash Alert Guide

Main Idea:
Crashes happen suddenly when crowd psychology flips—not because of news or high prices alone. Models can't predict the exact moment.

4 Warning Signs (Watch for these together):

1. Everyone's Borrowing Heavy – High debt fuels the market.

2. Government Acts Erratic – Unpredictable policy moves increase.

3. More Scandals Appear – Rising fraud and corruption reports.

4. All Stocks Move Together – Good and bad companies rise/fall as one.

What to Do:

• Don't try to time the crash.

• When you see these signs, reduce risk: cut debt in your portfolio, take some profits, and ensure you have cash.

• It's a signal to be cautious, not to panic sell.