Malaysia's Stock Market Valuation

Excess Cash Holdings, Weak Capital Allocation Weigh on Malaysia’s Market Valuation — CIMB IB

edgeinvest

Publish date: Thu, 09 Jul 2026, 10:08 AM

 

   

KUALA LUMPUR (July 8): Malaysia’s long-standing equity market valuation discount is increasingly being linked to inefficient capital allocation rather than weak corporate governance, with excessive corporate cash holdings emerging as a key concern, according to CIMB Investment Bank Bhd.

In a strategy note following discussions at the Institutional Investors Council of Malaysia (IICM) Corporate Governance Conference 2026, the research house said panellists agreed that improving capital allocation and shareholder returns would be more effective in narrowing Malaysia’s valuation gap than governance reforms alone.

At the conference, Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) executive director of corporate finance and investments Datuk Zain Azhari Mazlan said about one-quarter of the 88 public listed companies identified as part of the MY Value Up programme hold cash equivalent to more than 30% of their assets, while cash balances exceeding 10% of assets are common across the broader market.

He also noted that among the companies engaged under the MY Value Up programme — the 88 with a collective market capitalisation of RM1.7 trillion, representing about 82% of the broader market's total — only 19 have disclosed quantified forward-looking targets, with most continuing to focus on historical performance instead.

Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) president and group chief executive Datuk Rizal Rickman Ramli said Malaysian corporate profit growth has broadly tracked the country’s 5% to 6% gross domestic product (GDP) growth since 2010.

However, earnings per share (EPS) growth has lagged at around 3%, weighed down by sustained capital expenditure and equity issuance, in contrast with the share buy-back culture seen in the US.  

      

He added that Malaysian companies have exceeded consensus EPS forecasts in only two of the past 11 years since 2015.

An analysis of return on equity also found that while profit margins and financial leverage were broadly comparable with MSCI Emerging Markets and Asean peers, weaker returns on assets remained the main drag.

Against this backdrop, CIMB IB said it is more positive on the Government-Linked Companies Empowerment and Reform (GEAR-uP) programme than the disclosure-focused MY Value Up initiative, as GEAR-uP includes explicit shareholder return objectives.

Under GEAR-uP, six core government-linked investment companies (GLICs) aim to raise the market capitalisation of their investee companies by RM100 billion over five years, while targeting a minimum annual shareholder return of 7.5% on a combined RM540 billion invested in Bursa Malaysia-listed companies, according to the strategy note.

By comparison, CIMB IB said MY Value Up remains voluntary as listed companies are encouraged to submit disclosure plans by the end of 2026, with public disclosure expected in 2027. Mandatory adoption could be considered around the end of 2027, depending on market participation.

Zain said the framework was intended as a fallback mechanism rather than the starting point for corporate reforms, adding that no tax incentives are currently being considered as such measures would require the Ministry of Finance’s approval.

CIMB IB expects 2026 and 2027 to serve as a “credibility-building phase” for MY Value Up, with investors likely to focus on companies that provide measurable three-year targets, align management incentives more closely with return on equity and total shareholder return, and demonstrate tangible capital return initiatives.

The research house identified five 'buy'-rated companies that it believes are well positioned to benefit from the MY Value Up and GEAR-uP initiatives: Telekom Malaysia Bhd (KL:TM), RHB Bank Bhd (KL:RHBBANK), UEM Sunrise Bhd (KL:UEMS), Sime Darby Property Bhd (KL:SIMEPROP) and IJM Corporation Bhd (KL:IJM).

“We believe the key indicators to monitor will be company-specific evidence — quantified three-year targets, long-term incentive plan metrics tightened to return on equity/total shareholder return, visible capital return action on the roughly one-quarter of the market sitting on excess cash,” said CIMB IB.

Source: TheEdge - 9 Jul 2026

                                                                                                                                                   

Tencent

Here is the 5-year financial trend for Tencent's Net Operating Cash Flow, Capital Expenditures (CapEx), and Free Cash Flow (FCF) from 2021 through 2025.

All figures are presented in RMB (Renminbi) Millions, mirroring Tencent’s primary presentation currency in its regulatory filings to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

5-Year Cash Flow Metrics (RMB Millions)

Metric	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net Operating Cash Flow	175,294	146,094	222,042	237,390	288,200
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	(33,411)	(18,014)	(23,912)	(76,800)	(79,200)
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	149,343	126,819	139,410	155,273	182,600

Key Takeaways from the Data

• The CapEx Pivot (2024–2025): Looking at the timeline, Tencent's CapEx dramatically spiked starting in 2024 (exploding by more than 220% year-over-year). This structural change reflects the company's aggressive, multi-billion dollar buildout of AI infrastructure and graphical processing unit (GPU) clusters to power its HunYuan Large Language Models and cloud services.

• Operating Resilience: Despite self-funding this massive increase in capital infrastructure, Tencent's robust generation of Net Operating Cash Flow allowed it to simultaneously expand its final Free Cash Flow to a record high of RMB 182.6 billion by 2025.

• The FCF Calculation Note: If you look at standard database terminals, you may notice slight variations in the exact FCF totals. This is because Tencent uses an internal adjusted formula in its investor presentations: Net Operating Cash Flow minus CapEx, minus media content payments (for videos/games), and minus lease liabilities. The numbers above align with Tencent's official investor definitions.

Over the last five years (2021–2025), Tencent's financial statements reflect a major transition. The company shifted from a period of heavy regulatory scrutiny and pandemic-related headwinds in China (2021–2022) to a strong earnings recovery driven by cost optimizations, high-margin revenue streams (like WeChat Video Accounts), and rapid AI commercialization (2023–2025).

Key Financial Metrics Summary (RMB Millions)

Tencent provides both standard IFRS figures and Non-IFRS adjustments. Non-IFRS metrics are widely watched by investors because they strip out massive volatile swings caused by the disposal, impairment, or fair-value reassessments of Tencent's global investment portfolio.

Metric (in RMB Millions)	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Total Revenue	560,118	554,552	609,015	660,257	751,800
YoY Revenue Growth	+16%	-1%	+10%	+8%	+14%
IFRS Net Profit	227,810	188,709	118,048	196,467	267,000
Non-IFRS Net Profit	127,919	119,233	161,719	227,200	267,900
YoY Non-IFRS Growth	+1%	-7%	+36%	+40%	+18%
Total Assets	1,612,364	1,578,131	1,577,246	1,780,995	N/A*

*Note: Exact audited full balance sheet asset data for the full year 2025 is typically fully published later in the complete annual document text, though top-line cash generation indicators remained highly robust.

Income Statement Analysis: The 5-Year Journey

1. 2021–2022: The Downturn & Regulatory Reset

• The Context: China introduced strict anti-monopoly regulations, limits on minor gaming hours, and a freeze on new game licenses. Concurrently, COVID-19 lockdowns impacted advertising and commercial payment volumes.

• The Impact: In 2022, Tencent recorded its first-ever annual revenue decline (-1%) and core profitability contracted.

• The IFRS Distortion: In 2021, IFRS profit spiked abnormally to RMB 227.8 billion because Tencent distributed its massive stake in JD.com to shareholders as a special dividend, triggering a huge, one-time accounting gain. Non-IFRS data shows core business was essentially flat (+1%).

2. 2023: Structural Efficiency Overhaul

• The Strategy: Tencent underwent major cost-cutting, exiting non-core businesses and reducing marketing expenses.

• The Growth Drivers: The introduction of monetized video formats within WeChat (WeChat Video Accounts) boosted higher-margin advertising. FinTech transactions also bounced back post-lockdowns.

• The Turnaround: While revenue grew moderately at 10%, Non-IFRS core net profit surged by 36% to RMB 161.7 billion, proving the company's operating leverage had vastly improved.

3. 2024–2025: High-Quality Growth & The AI Era

• Gaming Comeback: Domestic gaming re-accelerated via its "Evergreen Games" strategy alongside breakout international hits from subsidiaries like Supercell. Overseas gaming became a structural pillar surpassing $10 billion annually.

• AI Monetization: Revenue jumped significantly to RMB 751.8 billion by 2025. This late-period acceleration was fueled by integrating its HunYuan AI models into ad targeting systems (which vastly increased ad click rates) and scaling up paid AI cloud infrastructure for enterprise users.

• Cash Flow and Buybacks: Free cash flow scaled exceptionally well, topping RMB 182.6 billion by 2025. Tencent used this vast war chest to aggressively return value to investors, executing over HKD 112 billion in share buybacks in 2024 alone to protect stock valuation.

Balance Sheet & Cash Position Trend

Tencent maintains an exceptionally clean, net-cash balance sheet. Its cash and cash equivalents generally hover between RMB 280 billion and RMB 400 billion depending on the timing of massive buyback distributions and strategic investments. The core business acts as a reliable cash printing machine, self-funding up to $1 billion per quarter in AI infrastructure investments without relying heavily on debt.

Tencent Holdings Limited (HKEX: 0700) is one of the world’s largest technology conglomerates. The company organizes its business into three core revenue-generating pillars, supplemented by a massive global investment portfolio:

1. Value-Added Services (VAS)

This is Tencent’s largest segment, typically driving nearly half of its total revenue. It is divided into two primary areas:

• Online Games: Tencent is the world’s largest video game publisher. Locally, it dominates with evergreen titles like Honour of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite. Globally, it owns major studios like Riot Games (League of Legends) and Supercell (Clash of Clans), alongside publishing international hits like PUBG MOBILE.

• Social Networks: This includes revenue from virtual item sales and premium digital subscriptions. Tencent operates WeChat (Weixin), an omnipresent "super-app" in China with over 1.4 billion monthly active users, alongside the legacy messaging platform QQ. This sub-segment also covers its music (Tencent Music Entertainment) and long-form video streaming (Tencent Video) subsidiaries.

2. FinTech and Business Services

Accounting for roughly 30% of revenue, this segment focuses on commercial transactions and enterprise infrastructure:

• FinTech: Driven by WeChat Pay, which processes over a billion transactions daily. It monetizes via payment processing commissions and cross-sells into financial products like LiCaiTong (wealth management) and micro-lending via WeBank.

• Business Services: Focused on Tencent Cloud, which provides Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) to industries like retail, finance, and gaming. It also collects e-commerce technical fees from merchants operating within WeChat Mini Programs.

3. Marketing Services (Online Advertising)

This segment leverages the vast traffic of Tencent's ecosystem to sell ad space, accounting for about 15–20% of revenue.

• Ecosystem Ads: Placement of advertisements across WeChat Moments, WeChat Channels (short-form video platform competing with Douyin/TikTok), Mini Programs, and traditional media platforms like Tencent News.

• AI Integration: Tencent heavily utilizes its proprietary HunYuan AI large language models to optimize ad targeting and improve click-through rates for advertisers.

4. Investment Portfolio (The "Radar" Strategy)

Beyond its operational segments, Tencent acts as a massive investment house. It holds significant minority stakes in hundreds of global companies across e-commerce (such as Pinduoduo and JD.com), entertainment (Epic Games, Universal Music Group), and various global tech startups. This ecosystem strategy allows Tencent to capture financial upside and spot market trends early without having to operate the businesses directly.

Should you invest into Alibaba?

Strategies for the long term investor

For a patient, long-term investor, Alibaba’s intense short-term volatility actually provides structural entry points. When a mega-cap tech giant trades at a depressed price-to-earnings valuation relative to Western peers, long-term success relies on compounding shareholder yield and positioning for structural shifts.

Long-term investors can utilize several key strategies to benefit from investing in Alibaba:

Strategy 1: Capturing the "Total Shareholder Yield" (DRIP)

Alibaba has transformed from an aggressive tech startup into a mature cash-generator that heavily returns capital to shareholders via share buybacks and annual dividends.

• The Mechanism: Alibaba executes billions of dollars in routine share buybacks, which permanently shrinks the total share count and boosts earnings-per-share (EPS) for remaining investors. Simultaneously, it pays out a consistent annual dividend (distributing $1.05 per ordinary share).

• The Long-Term Play: Implement a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP). By automatically using your cash dividends to buy more shares while the stock price is cyclically depressed, you artificially increase your ownership percentage over time. The combination of massive buybacks and your personal dividend reinvestment maximizes total shareholder yield compounding over a 5-to-10-year horizon.

Strategy 2: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) to Exploit "Fear" Cycles

Because Alibaba functions as a liquid proxy for the Chinese economy, macro fears cause institutional funds to dump the stock indiscriminately.

• The Mechanism: Instead of attempting to time the exact bottom of China's economic or regulatory cycles, deploy a fixed capital amount monthly or quarterly.

• The Long-Term Play: This systematic accumulation ensures you buy fewer shares when the price rallies and significantly more shares when macro sentiment turns negative. Over time, this drastically lowers your average cost basis, preparing your portfolio for outsized gains when the underlying macroeconomic landscape recovers.

Strategy 3: The "Sum-of-the-Parts" Realization Strategy

Alibaba’s current market capitalization largely reflects the value of its domestic e-commerce business alone, effectively pricing its hyper-growth segments at near zero.

• The Mechanism: The Cloud Intelligence Group (powering its proprietary Qwen AI LLM) and the International E-Commerce Group (AIDC) are expanding rapidly. Over the next decade, Alibaba intends to eventually spin off or independently list some of these mature secondary subsidiaries.

• The Long-Term Play: Treat an investment today as a mispriced optionality play. A long-term investor benefits by waiting out the near-term infrastructure cash-burn phase. Once the Cloud Intelligence business scales its margins and achieves standalone financial viability, the market will likely re-value Alibaba as a comprehensive AI infrastructure titan rather than just an online retail mall.

Strategy 4: Preferring Hong Kong Shares (9988.HK) for Sovereign Security

Alibaba maintains a dual-primary listing in New York (BABA) and Hong Kong (9988.HK).

• The Mechanism: American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) carry structural regulatory and geopolitical layers of friction, such as long-term delisting disputes or local cross-border crossfire.

• The Long-Term Play: True long-term investors should favor buying the shares natively listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Holding 9988.HK mitigates Western regulatory delisting risks and aligns your capital directly within the Asian capital ecosystem, where local Chinese liquidity flows directly into the stock via the Southbound Stock Connect program.

Strategies for the short-term investors

Profiting from a volatile stock like Alibaba within a short-to-medium-term window (less than 5 years) requires shifting away from passive "buy-and-hold" investing. Because the stock undergoes massive sentiment swings based on Chinese consumption metrics and geopolitical news, short-term strategies must exploit these cycles rather than wait for secular changes.

Short-term traders and tactical investors can capture returns through several specific approaches:

Strategy 1: Swing Trading via "Stimulus and Policy" Cycles

Alibaba acts as a highly liquid proxy for global fund managers trading Chinese macro sentiment. When the Chinese government announces domestic economic stimulus or interest rate cuts, Alibaba frequently rallies 20% to 30% in weeks, only to pull back when economic data slows down.

• The Execution: Monitor major technical support lines (historically near the $70–$85 range on the US ADR, or equivalent HKD pricing). Accumulate tranches when the stock is deeply oversold on the Relative Strength Index (RSI below 30) due to generic "China risk" headlines.

• The Exit: Take profits aggressively when a macro sentiment shift or government policy announcement pumps the stock toward key overhead resistance levels (e.g., $110–$120). Do not wait for a full multi-year business turnaround; capture the 15–25% pop and move to cash.

Strategy 2: Event-Driven Arbitrage on Cloud and AI Segment Breakouts

Over a 1-to-3-year horizon, Alibaba’s biggest catalyst is the potential monetization or independent spinoffs of its non-core units, specifically Cloud Intelligence (Qwen AI) and AIDC (International Commerce).

• The Execution: Buy into the stock during periods of extreme pessimism (when the market values Alibaba solely on its legacy retail business, pricing the AI and global growth units at zero).

• The Exit: Liquidate your position immediately following concrete announcements of regulatory approval for a partial subsidiary IPO, or when a massive quarterly earnings print highlights a spike in profitable external enterprise AI compute revenue.

Strategy 3: Enhancing Short-Term Yield via Options (Covered Calls)

If you plan to hold the stock for 1 to 2 years while waiting for a valuation rebound, Alibaba’s high implied volatility makes it an ideal candidate for options premium extraction.

• The Execution: If you own blocks of 100 shares, write out-of-the-money Covered Calls with a 30-to-45-day expiration window. For example, if the stock is hovering near $95–$98, you can sell call options with a strike price of $115–$120.

• The Payoff: If the stock moves sideways or down, the options expire worthless, and you keep the premium cash, effectively creating an artificial 8% to 15% annualized yield on top of Alibaba’s base dividend. If the stock explodes and your shares are called away at $120, you successfully lock in a massive short-term capital gain anyway.

Strategy 4: Trading Options Volatility During Earnings Reports

Alibaba's quarterly earnings prints routinely see double-digit implied move expectations, meaning the market expects a massive jump up or down.

• The Execution: Instead of betting blindly on direction, sophisticated short-term traders can look at volatility strategies like a Long Straddle or Long Strangle (buying both a call and a put option with identical or close strike prices) a couple of weeks before earnings when options are cheaper.

• The Exit: Sell both options immediately when the post-earnings opening bell rings. If the stock swings violently in either direction (due to surprise cloud growth or a sudden e-commerce margin collapse), the profit from the winning option can vastly outweigh the cost of the losing option.

Summary Risk Management Rule for <5 Years

If you are investing with a short timeline, never use leverage and maintain strict stop-losses. Geopolitical crossfire (such as hardware/chip export bans or sudden listings restrictions) can wipe out technical indicators instantly. Treat Alibaba as an opportunistic trading vehicle: buy the extreme fear, sell the sudden relief rallies, and take your profits off the table.

Alibaba: The Big Picture

The Big Picture Takeaway: Overall, Alibaba's corporate net profit margins have shrunk heavily down toward single digits. This is a deliberate strategic posture: management is redirecting billions in free cash flow from Taobao/Tmall into AI infrastructure chips and quick commerce subsidies to defend its domestic leadership and capture the AI cloud enterprise market.

Alibaba’s overall financial profile is characterized by one massive cash cow funding aggressive, high-capital reinvestments across artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and quick commerce.

According to Alibaba's latest comprehensive quarterly and fiscal-year disclosures, the individual financial performances and Adjusted EBITA margins across its core business segments break down as follows:

1. China E-Commerce Group (Taobao & Tmall)

• Performance: This remains Alibaba's dominant anchor, generating the vast majority of overall company revenue and profits. For example, in the final quarter of the fiscal year, China e-commerce revenue reached approximately RMB 122.22 billion.

• Margins: Historically a high-margin business boasting operating margins above 40%, profitability has faced headwinds from intensifying domestic competition. Heavy promotional spending, user acquisition, and scaling its "quick commerce" instant-delivery operations have cut into these margins significantly, contracting segment EBITA by roughly 40% in recent quarters.

2. Cloud Intelligence Group

• Performance: The undisputed standout growth engine for the group. Propelled by corporate adoption of generative AI, external cloud revenue has been growing rapidly at 35% to 40% year-over-year (with AI-specific product revenue maintaining over ten consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth). Quarterly revenue has hovered around RMB 41 billion to RMB 43 billion.

• Margins: Cloud profit margins are expanding but heavily countered by massive capital expenditures. Adjusted EBITA grew 57% recently, putting estimated baseline operating margins at ~8%. However, the segment is intentionally sacrificing near-term maximum profitability to build out vast AI server infrastructures.

3. Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC)

• Performance: A high-growth pillar driven by the cross-border success of platforms like AliExpress and Trendyol, pulling in over RMB 35.4 billion quarterly.

• Margins: This segment has traditionally operated at a net loss (-5% margin territory) due to aggressive global customer acquisition, marketing wars with cross-border rivals, and massive investments in global logistics. However, recent efficiency enhancements and optimized shipping via Cainiao have successfully narrowed these losses near to the break-even point (reducing losses to just RMB 138 million in the latest quarter).

4. Logistics (Cainiao) & Other Segments

• Cainiao: Operates at low, stable margins (~2%). It serves as a necessary support network for the international e-commerce arm, prioritizing scale and speed over pure margin.

• Local Consumer Services (Ele.me / Amap): Historically a heavy cash burn with negative margins around -10%. While still operating at a loss, its unit economics have improved through targeted route optimizations and reduced subsidized payouts.

• Digital Media & Entertainment (Youku / Alibaba Pictures): Remains a small fragment of total revenue, generally hovering around a slight loss (-8% margin) or near break-even depending on the slate of cinematic releases.

Share price of Alibaba is very volatile

Alibaba’s share price (9988.HK / BABA) is notoriously volatile, frequently experiencing swift swings of 20% to 30% within a matter of months. For example, the stock traded as high as $192 before sliding back down toward the $95–$100 range.

This intense volatility is rarely driven by a single event. Instead, it is the result of a tug-of-war between strong internal technology metrics and severe external macro pressures.

1. The Domestic Margin vs. AI Growth Paradox

Alibaba is currently a "company in transition," which creates massive uncertainty for traditional valuation models:

• The Margin Hit: To defend its market share against fierce e-commerce rivals like PDD Holdings (Temu/Pinduoduo) and ByteDance (Douyin), Alibaba is aggressively spending on user subsidies and "quick commerce" initiatives. This has caused its core e-commerce profits to drop sharply.

• The AI Cloud Boom: At the exact same time, its Cloud Intelligence Group is experiencing booming triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue.

• The Investor Dilemma: Every time financial results drop, the market reacts violently. Momentum investors panic over shrinking e-commerce margins and free cash flow drops, while tech-focused growth investors pile in due to its massive AI potential.

2. Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Sentiment

Alibaba is heavily utilized by international funds as a liquid proxy for the overall Chinese economy and tech landscape.

• Consumption Headwinds: Weakening domestic consumer confidence in China heavily dictates day-to-day trading. Any macroeconomic data showing sluggish retail spending causes investors to dump the stock. Conversely, any hint of sweeping government economic stimulus triggers explosive rallies.

• Geopolitical Crossfire: Tech export restrictions (especially around high-end US AI chips) heavily impact Alibaba's long-term cloud capability. Additionally, compliance issues abroad—such as the recent $600 million U.S. regulatory settlement over pharmaceutical listings—keep global investors on edge.

3. Chronic Regulatory Adjustments

The shadow of China's sweeping 2020–2021 tech crackdown still influences how investors price the stock. Even though the most destructive era of regulatory actions has concluded, new proposals (such as ongoing refinements to domestic E-Commerce laws) mean that institutional compliance risks remain a permanent fixture in the background. Investors are quick to sell at the first mention of regulatory friction.

4. Heavy Institutional Trading & Massive Share Buybacks

Alibaba is constantly caught between massive, opposing institutional forces:

• The Bears & Sellers: High-profile funds frequently rotate out of the stock during cyclical downturns. For instance, Cathie Wood’s ARK ETF recently liquidated chunks of its Alibaba holdings.

• The Contrarian Bulls: Legendary value investors (like Michael Burry) and prominent asset managers (like TT International) have recently bought large stakes, publicly stating that the market is severely underpricing Alibaba's core AI strategy.

• The Corporate Buffer: To stabilize this tug-of-war, Alibaba routinely deploys billions of dollars into massive corporate share buybacks. These multi-million dollar daily buying programs act as a artificial floor, driving sharp short-term rebounds whenever the price drops too low.

Ultimately, Alibaba's volatility persists because it is fundamentally valued as two entirely different entities depending on the day's headlines: a mature, slowing e-commerce giant facing margin decay, or an incredibly cheap, high-potential artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure powerhouse.