myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

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Showing posts with label expected value. Show all posts
Showing posts with label expected value. Show all posts
Saturday, 21 November 2009

Understanding Risk and Decision Making

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Key ideas: Probability is the likelihood of an outcome.  Probabilities are expressed numerically, but are often subjective. Impact is th...

A picture of complex risks and their profiles is more useful than knowing expected value is positive or not

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Risk profile A risk profile is a graph showing value - usually expressed in financial terms - and probability.  Looking at the profile of ...

Making Life Decisions: appraising cost, risk and expected value, with limited information about the future

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The dice games are simple parallels with the type of decision we take every day in our lives.  Investments offer the most direct comparison....
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