myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

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Showing posts with label subjective probabilities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label subjective probabilities. Show all posts
Thursday, 12 January 2017

Teach yourself to THINK in PROBABILITIES and in MULTIPLE SCENARIOS.

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Without question, Buffett's success is tied closely to number. "One of the advantages of a fellow like Buffett is that he automa...
Saturday, 21 November 2009

Understanding Risk and Decision Making

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Key ideas: Probability is the likelihood of an outcome.  Probabilities are expressed numerically, but are often subjective. Impact is th...

Decision making: Risk, Probability, Impact, Subjectivity, Decision trees and Expected Value

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You are invited to play dice games version A and version B.  In this game, you bet $1 on the throw of a dice.  Throwing a six wins a prize; ...
Friday, 20 November 2009

Subjectivity and Impacts

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The problem of achieving objectivity applies just as much to assessing impacts as it does to gauging probabilities.  It can be difficult to ...

Subjective Probabilities are an unavoidable part of decision making

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Subjective probabilities are an unavoidable part of business decision making.  You often have to make an opinion on strategic issues facin...
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