High growth rates are heady stuff - a company that manages to increase its earnings at 15% for 5 years will double its profits, and who wouldn't want to do that?
Unfortunately, a slew of academic research shows that strong earnings growth is NOT VERY PERSISTENT over a series of years; in other words, a track record of high earnings growth does not necessarily lead to high earnings growth in the future.
Why is this?
- Because the total economic pie is growing only so fast - after all, the long-run aggregate growth of corporate earnings has historically been slightly slower than the growth of the economy - strong and rapidly growing profits attract intense competition.
- Companies that are growing fast and piling up profits soon find other companies trying to get a piece of the action for themselves.
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