Saturday, 9 January 2010

High growth rates are heady stuff and not very persistent over a series of years

The allure of strong growth has probably led more investors into temptation than anything else. 

High growth rates are heady stuff - a company that manages to increase its earnings at 15% for 5 years will double its profits, and who wouldn't want to do that?

Unfortunately, a slew of academic research shows that strong earnings growth is NOT VERY PERSISTENT over a series of years; in other words, a track record of high earnings growth does not necessarily lead to high earnings growth in the future. 

Why is this?

  • Because the total economic pie is growing only so fast - after all, the long-run aggregate growth of corporate earnings has historically been slightly slower than the growth of the economy - strong and rapidly growing profits attract intense competition. 
  • Companies that are growing fast and piling up profits soon find other companies trying to get a piece of the action for themselves.

No comments: