Hong Leong Bank Berhad

Date announced 19/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 4
FYE 30/06/2010

STOCK HLBank
C0DE  5819 

Price $ 9.55 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 14.01 Curr. DY 2.51%
LFY Div 24.00 DPO ratio 35%
ROE 15.4% PBT Margin 66.7% PAT Margin 58.2%

Rec. qRev 517802 q-q % chg 2% y-y% chq 5%
Rec qPbt 345131 q-q % chg 33% y-y% chq 66%
Rec. qEps 20.77 q-q % chg 32% y-y% chq 51%
ttm-Eps 68.17 q-q % chg 11% y-y% chq 9%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 10.00
Forecast High Pr 10.44 Forecast Low Pr 7.83 Recent Severe Low Pr 7.83
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 34% Downside 66%
One Year Appreciation Potential 2% Avg. yield 3%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 5%
CPE/SPE 1.27 P/NTA 2.16 NTA 4.43 SPE 11.00 Rational Pr 7.50



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr