Malayan Banking Berhad

Date announced 20/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 4
FYE 30/06/2010

STOCK Maybank
C0DE  1155 

Price $ 9.1 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 16.87 Curr. DY 6.04%
LFY Div 55.00 DPO ratio 102%
ROE 13.7% PBT Margin 28.7% PAT Margin 19.3%

Rec. qRev 4737314 q-q % chg 3% y-y% chq -3%
Rec qPbt 1359094 q-q % chg -7% y-y% chq -265%
Rec. qEps 12.89 q-q % chg -11% y-y% chq -173%
ttm-Eps 53.95 q-q % chg 130% y-y% chq 384%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 15.00 Avg. L PE 10.00
Forecast High Pr 10.33 Forecast Low Pr 6.71 Recent Severe Low Pr 6.71
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 34% Downside 66%
One Year Appreciation Potential 3% Avg. yield 8%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 10%

CPE/SPE 1.35 P/NTA 2.31 NTA 3.94 SPE 12.50 Rational Pr 6.74



Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr