Maybulk

Date announced 24/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 2
FYE 31/12/2010

STOCK Maybulk
C0DE  5077 

Price $ 2.95 Curr. ttm-PE 12.24 Curr. DY 5.08%
LFY Div 15.00 DPO ratio 62%
ROE 14.7% PBT Margin 34.7% PAT Margin 32.9%

Rec. qRev 96067 q-q % chg -16% y-y% chq 36%
Rec qPbt 33369 q-q % chg -38% y-y% chq -55%
Rec. qEps 3.16 q-q % chg -39% y-y% chq -56%
ttm-Eps 24.10 q-q % chg -14% y-y% chq 4%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 3% Avg.H PE 11.00 Avg. L PE 10.00
Forecast High Pr 3.07 Forecast Low Pr 2.13 Recent Severe Low Pr 2.13
Current price is at Upper 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 13% Downside 87%
One Year Appreciation Potential 1% Avg. yield 6%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 7%

CPE/SPE 1.17 P/NTA 1.80 NTA 1.64 SPE 10.50 Rational Pr 2.53


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr