Petronas Gas

Date announced 27/08/2010
Quarter 30/06/2010 Qtr 1
FYE 31/03/2011

STOCK  PETGAS 
C0DE  6033 

Price $ 11 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 20.63 Curr. DY 4.55%
LFY Div 50.00 DPO ratio 105%
ROE 12.6% PBT Margin 58.8% PAT Margin 43.9%

Rec. qRev 872645 q-q % chg 9% y-y% chq 11%
Rec qPbt 513213 q-q % chg 85% y-y% chq 45%
Rec. qEps 19.35 q-q % chg 90% y-y% chq 42%
ttm-Eps 53.31 q-q % chg 12% y-y% chq 17%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 5% Avg.H PE 20.00 Avg. L PE 18.00
Forecast High Pr 13.61 Forecast Low Pr 9.60 Recent Severe Low Pr 9.60
Current price is at Middle 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 65% Downside 35%
One Year Appreciation Potential 5% Avg. yield 7%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 11%

CPE/SPE 1.09 P/NTA 2.59 NTA 4.24 SPE 19.00 Rational Pr 10.13


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy, Hold, Sell, Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones - Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr