Tenaga

Date announced 28/10/2010
Quarter 31/08/2010 Qtr 4
FYE 31/08/2010

STOCK Tenaga
C0DE  5347 

Price $ 8.51 Curr. PE (ttm-Eps) 11.53 Curr. DY 3.06%
LFY Div 26.00 DPO ratio 35%
ROE 11.2% PBT Margin 6.4% PAT Margin 4.9%

Rec. qRev 7869400 q-q % chg 2% y-y% chq 5%
Rec qPbt 499900 q-q % chg -61% y-y% chq 92%
Rec. qEps 8.94 q-q % chg -65% y-y% chq 136%
ttm-Eps 73.78 q-q % chg 8% y-y% chq 249%

Using VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES:
EPS GR 3% Avg.H PE 12.00 Avg. L PE 11.00
Forecast High Pr 10.26 Forecast Low Pr 7.73 Recent Severe Low Pr 7.73
Current price is at Lower 1/3 of valuation zone.

RISK: Upside 69% Downside 31%
One Year Appreciation Potential 4% Avg. yield 4%
Avg. Total Annual Potential Return (over next 5 years) 8%

CPE/SPE 1.00 P/NTA 1.29 NTA 6.61 SPE 11.50 Rational Pr 8.48


Decision:
Already Owned: Buy Hold Sell Filed; Review (future acq): Filed; Discard: Filed.
Guide: Valuation zones Lower 1/3 Buy; Mid. 1/3 Maybe; Upper 1/3 Sell.

Aim:
To Buy a bargain: Buy at Lower 1/3 of Valuation Zone
To Minimise risk of Loss: Buy when risk is low i.e UPSIDE GAIN > 75% OR DOWNSIDE RISK <25%
To Double every 5 years: Seek for POTENTIAL RETURN of > 15%/yr.
To Prevent Loss: Sell immediately when fundamentals deteriorate
To Maximise Gain & Reduce Loss: Sell when CPE/SPE > 1.5, when in Upper 1/3 of Valuation Zone & Returns < 15%/yr