Friday, 31 May 2013

A good quality company trading with a large margin of safety

Company OD

Quarter High Pr Low Pr ttm-eps High PE Low PE
1 10.18 10.02 72.91 13.96 13.74
4 9.15 9.09 72.67 12.59 12.51
3 9.08 9.02 72.60 12.51 12.42
2 9.22 9.16 70.69 13.04 12.96
1 8.76 8.65 69.27 12.65 12.49
5 8.76 8.65 68.84 12.73 12.57
5 8.71 8.63 67.16 12.97 12.85
5 8.77 8.74 65.56 13.38 13.33
5 8.50 8.35 64.06 13.27 13.03
4 8.74 8.62 61.39 14.24 14.04
3 8.98 8.75 58.74 15.29 14.90
2 8.67 8.62 57.70 15.03 14.94
1 9.27 9.10 56.02 16.55 16.24
4 8.42 7.65 53.95 15.61 14.18
3 7.77 6.94 23.44 33.15 29.61
2 7.00 6.62 15.99 43.78 41.40
1 7.08 6.60 12.33 57.42 53.53
4 6.86 6.31 7.95 86.26 79.35
3 3.72 2.97 35.51 10.49 8.35
2 3.86 3.52 39.10 9.88 8.99
1 4.28 3.39 38.52 11.10 8.81
4 5.48 4.97 40.87 13.42 12.15
3 5.59 4.72 46.21 12.09 10.22
2 4.72 4.41 46.26 10.20 9.54
1 7.28 6.07 47.82 15.23 12.69
4 6.51 6.07 45.75 14.23 13.27
3 6.90 6.57 42.91 16.07 15.30
2 7.17 6.57 41.49 17.29 15.82
1 7.01 6.23 39.46 17.76 15.80
4 6.40 6.12 41.06 15.59 14.91
3 5.96 5.74 37.07 16.07 15.48
2 6.12 5.85 38.01 16.11 15.39
1 6.34 5.90 39.24 16.17 15.04
4 6.46 6.18 37.78 17.09 16.36
3 6.29 6.01 39.27 16.02 15.31
2 6.90 6.12 39.48 17.47 15.51
1 6.62 6.46 38.00 17.42 16.99



Quarter Q1 eps   Q2 eps Q3 eps Q4  eps FYE eps Div
0-Jan-00 17.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.87 0.00
31/12/2012 17.63 18.64 19.11 17.29 72.67 65.00
31/12/2011 17.20 17.22 17.20 17.22 68.84 36.00
30/06/2011 14.53 15.72 15.60 15.54 61.39 60.00
30/06/2010 12.46 14.04 14.56 12.89 53.95 55.00
30/06/2009 8.08 10.38 7.11 -17.62 7.95 0.08
30/06/2008 10.43 9.80 10.70 9.94 40.87 31.72
30-Jun-07 8.36 11.35 10.76 15.28 45.75 44.14
30-Jun-06 9.96 9.32 9.34 12.44 41.06 46.90
30-Jun-05 8.51 10.55 10.28 8.44 37.78 56.55
Sum 448.14 395.39
DPO 88.2%


Latest share price $10.18
ttm-EPS 72.91 sen
Last FY DPS 65 sen
DPO ratio 89.5%

P/E 13.96
DY 6.39%

Historical P/E range 12 - 16
Historical DY range 4.86% - 6.27%

Estimated EPSGR 8% per year

Present risk free interest rate 4%.

Assuming no growth in its earnings or dividends, and using 4% risk free interest rate
as the discount factor, the present value of:
1.  The earnings stream is equivalent to an asset of  72.91 sen / 4% = $18.23
2.  The dividends stream is equivalent to an asset of  65 sen / 4% = $16.25

At present per share price of $10.18, its upside potential is $18.23 - $10.18 = $ 8.05.
Its downside risk is protected by its dividend yield which is equivalent to an asset of $16.25.  This value exceeds its present share price of $10.18 by a substantial margin of $16.25 - $10.18 = $6.07 per share.
That is, its present share price is at 37.45% below its intrinsic value (the value supported by its dividend yields).

Given its good quality of its business and the large margin of safety at the present market price, this stock is a BUY.


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