myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Thursday 5 May 2011

Padini

Padini

Latest Balance SheetBalance Sheet as at 30 June 2010

*All figures in MYR'000
*Re-statement Excluded

Reclassified & normalised data for comparative use.

CURRENT ASSET
Cash & Securities	154,940
Stocks	76,554
Debtors/Receivable	32,831
Others	0

TOTAL CURRENT ASSET	264,325

NET CURRENT ASSETS	152,974
LAND & BUILDING	30,893
PLANT & MACHINERY	51,730
INVESTMENTS & OTHERS	2,643
INTANGIBLE ASSETS	6,991






TOTAL NET ASSETS	245,231

CURRENT LIABILITES
Short-term Loans	26,128
Creditors/Payables	78,358
Taxation	6,865
Dividends	0
others	0
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES	111,351

LONG-TERM LIABILITIES	10,899
MINORITY INTEREST	0
SHAREHOLDER'S FUND
preferred Stock	0
Common Stock	65,791
Treasury Stock	0
Share Premium	3,772
Accumulated Earnings	165,875
Reserves	1,106
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' FUND	234,332

TOTAL L/T LIAB + MI + NET WORTH	245,231

Latest PROFIT & LOSSPROFIT & LOSS as at 30 June 2010

All figures in MYR'000
Re-statement Excluded Reclassified & normalised data for comparative use.

TURNOVER 520,880

Other Revenue 5,789

OPERATING PROFIT 87,374

Share of Associated Co P&L 0

Exceptional Items 0

Taxation 25,306

PROFIT AFTER TAX 0

Extraordinary Items 0

Minority Interest 0

NET PROFIT 60,974

Latest CASH FLOWCASH FLOW as at 30 June 2010

All figures in MYR'000
Re-statement Excluded Reclassified & normalised data for comparative use.

Operating Activities 93,396

Investing Activities 26,351

Financial Activities 3,084

Effect of Exchange Rate 0

Net Cash 70,129

Cash b/f 64,896

Cash & Bank Balance 135,025

Deposits 0

Overdraft 0

Cash c/f 135,025

Latest Rolling 4 Quarter/Segment# Results

Quarterly Results

SELECT YEAR

	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Rolling 4 Qtrs/ Segment

	12-2009	03-2010	06-2010	09-2010	12-2010
CURRENCY	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR
Turnover ('000)*	128,395	139,433	114,389	136,641	141,814	532,277
Profit before Tax ('000)*	16,612	23,820	18,653	25,651	20,264	88,388
Net Profit ('000)*	11,520	17,266	11,807	18,349	14,484	61,906
EPS (cent/sen)**	8.750	13.120	8.970	13.950	11.010	9.409***
DIVIDEND CURRENCY	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR
DPS (cent/sen)	7.500	7.500	0.000	2.000	0.000	9.500
Special DPS (cent/sen)	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

IMPORTANT NOTE ON QUARTERLY RESULTS

Historical Rolling 4 Quarter Results

Historical Quarterly EPS VS Audited EPS

Year	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	12Month	Audited EPS
2001	2.420	14.160	0.990	7.000	24.57	22.5000
2002	-0.120	18.670	4.830	-4.560	18.82	15.2000
2003	6.090	14.450	10.920	-7.960	23.5	23.4000
2004	4.350	14.330	4.350	-3.720	19.31	10.4000
2005	2.150	12.400	11.960	3.850	30.36	29.1000
2006	9.890	19.320	10.120	4.810	44.14	44.1000
2007	5.850	17.980	15.320	9.760	48.91	24.2400
2008	8.780	11.150	10.500	2.010	32.44	31.7100
2009	13.760	11.220	8.380	4.270	37.63	37.6400
2010	15.310	8.750	13.120	8.970	46.15	46.3400
2011	13.950	11.010	-	-	24.96	-

10-YR BALANCE SHEET10-YR BALANCE SHEET

*All figures in '000
*Re-statement Excluded

Reclassified & normalised data for comparative use.


BALANCE SHEET	@ 2010-06-30	@ 2009-06-30	@ 2008-06-30	@ 2007-06-30	@ 2006-06-30	@ 2005-06-30	@ 2004-06-30	@ 2003-06-30	@ 2002-06-30	@ 2001-06-30
CURRENCY	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR
CURRENT ASSETS
Cash & Securities	154,940	84,566	41,664	52,098	44,464	33,340	21,594	19,746	13,723	11,531
Stocks	76,554	91,878	116,113	64,041	51,397	41,901	34,935	36,670	31,966	39,877
Debtors/Receivables	32,831	33,064	30,377	25,982	22,260	21,616	17,873	18,802	19,925	18,948
Others	0	0	1,716	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS	264,325	209,508	189,870	142,121	118,121	96,857	74,402	75,218	65,614	70,356

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Short-term Loans	26,128	28,636	25,002	3,847	2,057	2,298	3,515	5,599	7,356	9,448
Creditors / Payables	78,358	45,897	61,824	40,118	27,090	23,989	15,439	12,887	10,204	13,242
Taxation	6,865	8,740	4,796	4,753	2,909	2,593	678	1,190	2,135	3,707
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Others	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES	111,351	83,273	91,622	48,718	32,056	28,880	19,632	19,676	19,695	26,397

NET CURRENT ASSETS	152,974	126,235	98,248	93,403	86,065	67,977	54,770	55,542	45,919	43,959

TOTAL LONG-TERM ASSETS
Land & Building	30,893	31,326	30,571	30,117	24,357	14,549	16,416	11,978	12,854	13,056
Plant & Machinery	51,730	47,155	42,703	21,940	11,591	14,470	14,574	13,509	16,087	14,250
Investments	2,643	2,731	1,170	1,556	697	2,232	744	769	796	188
Intangible Assets	6,991	0	0	0	1,834	2,484	1,006	121	152	60
LONG-TERM ASSETS	92,257	81,212	74,444	53,613	38,479	33,735	32,740	26,377	29,889	27,554

SHARE HOLDERS' FUND
Paid Up Capital	65,791	65,791	65,791	65,591	63,585	62,415	61,812	40,002	40,000	30,000
Share Premium	3,772	3,772	3,772	3,348	1,195	802	749	1	0	4,179
Accumulated Earnings	165,875	134,507	100,764	73,752	54,166	37,796	24,134	41,372	35,098	35,935
Other Reserves	-1,106	-27	-849	-350	-101	213	0	0	0	0
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' FUND	234,332	204,043	169,478	142,341	118,845	101,226	86,695	81,375	75,098	70,114

MINORITY INTEREST	0	0	0	326	305	276	230	223	211	206

LONG-TERM LIABILITIES	10,899	3,404	3,214	4,349	5,394	210	585	321	499	1,193

10-YR PROFIT & LOSS

*All figures in '000
*Re-statement Excluded

Reclassified & normalised data for comparative use.


PROFIT & LOSS	@ 2010-06-30	@ 2009-06-30	@ 2008-06-30	@ 2007-06-30	@ 2006-06-30	@ 2005-06-30	@ 2004-06-30	@ 2003-06-30	@ 2002-06-30	@ 2001-06-30
CURRENCY	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR
TURNOVER	520,880	475,477	383,306	316,866	286,107	243,263	207,712	187,774	173,341	165,712
OPERATING PROFIT	87,374	69,135	58,428	44,346	39,796	25,911	11,931	15,351	11,590	9,851
PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAX	86,280	67,610	57,659	44,007	39,561	25,573	11,573	15,366	11,620	9,851
NET PROFIT/LOSS TO SHAREHOLDERS	60,974	49,533	41,715	31,442	27,732	18,079	6,341	9,363	6,065	6,741
( Inclusive of )
Depreciation	(21,736)	(19,667)	(12,477)	(8,081)	(7,624)	(8,510)	(8,584)	(6,955)	(6,537)	(5,097)
Interest	(1,094)	(1,525)	(769)	(339)	(172)	(310)	(358)	(623)	(1,090)	(1,178)
Taxation	(25,306)	(18,077)	(15,909)	(12,565)	(11,779)	(7,389)	(5,210)	(5,979)	(5,534)	(3,093)
*All figures in '000

BASIC EPS (CENT/SEN)	46.34	37.64	31.71	24.24	44.10	29.10	10.40	23.40	15.20	22.50
DIVIDEND CURRENCY	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR
GROSS DIVIDEND	0.15	0.14	0.18	0.25	0.13	0.15	0.10	0.10	0.05	0.05

10-YR Cash Flow10-YR Cash Flow

*All figures in '000
*Re-statement Excluded

Reclassified & normalised data for comparative use.


CASH FLOW	@ 2010-06-30	@ 2009-06-30	@ 2008-06-30	@ 2007-06-30	@ 2006-06-30	@ 2005-06-30	@ 2004-06-30	@ 2003-06-30	@ 2002-06-30	@ 2001-06-30
CURRENCY	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR	MYR
Operating Activities	93,396	63,202	5,073	26,999	17,802	21,220	16,467	11,615	16,128	3,366
Investing Activities	-26,351	-19,442	-34,710	-23,502	-12,126	-8,296	-13,830	-3,237	-8,831	-7,277
Financial Activities	3,084	-290	19,555	4,273	5,566	-1,179	195	3,516	-3,756	-718
Net Cash	70,129	43,470	-10,082	7,770	11,206	11,745	2,832	11,894	3,541	-4,629
Cash b/f	64,896	22,151	51,746	44,600	33,257	21,595	18,762	6,869	3,328	7,937
Cash & Bank Balance	135,025	65,621	41,664	30,232	30,901	15,322	21,594	0	13,723	9,033
Deposits	0	0	0	21,866	13,563	18,018	0	19,746	0	0
Overdraft	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-984	-6,854	-5,726
Cash c/f	135,025	65,621	41,664	52,098	44,464	33,340	21,594	18,762	6,869	3,307
*All figures in '000

No comments:

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

myinvestingnotes.blogspot.my (Bullbear Buffett Stock Investing Notes)

Thursday 5 May 2011

Padini

Latest Rolling 4 Quarter/Segment# Results

Historical Rolling 4 Quarter Results

No comments:

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs

TURNOVER	520,880
Other Revenue	5,789

OPERATING PROFIT	87,374
Share of Associated Co P&L	0
Exceptional Items	0
Taxation	25,306

PROFIT AFTER TAX	0
Extraordinary Items	0
Minority Interest	0
NET PROFIT	60,974