Bullbear Buffett

Keep INVESTING Simple and Safe (KISS) ****Investment Philosophy, Strategy and various Valuation Methods**** The same forces that bring risk into investing in the stock market also make possible the large gains many investors enjoy. It’s true that the fluctuations in the market make for losses as well as gains but if you have a proven strategy and stick with it over the long term you will be a winner!****Warren Buffett: Rule No. 1 - Never lose money. Rule No. 2 - Never forget Rule No. 1.

Showing posts with label Microsoft. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 November 2025

The Magnificent 7 Stocks (10 years Revenues and Net Earnings records)

The "Magnificent Seven" are the leading, prominent tech companies in the world: Apple, Alphabet, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. How these stocks perform typically dictates how well the overall market does.

Microsoft's Revenue and Net Earnings (FY2015 - FY2025E)

Here is a detailed breakdown of Microsoft's revenues and net earnings for the fiscal years 2015 to 2025, followed by a summary of the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

**Important Note on Fiscal Years:** Microsoft's fiscal year (FY) ends on June 30. For example, **Fiscal Year 2025** will end on June 30, 2025. The data for 2015-2024 is actual, while 2025 is based on analyst consensus estimates.

---

### **Microsoft's Revenue and Net Earnings (FY2015 - FY2025E)**

All figures are in USD millions. Data for FY2015-FY2024 is sourced from Microsoft's official annual reports (10-K filings). **Data for FY2025 is based on the current consensus analyst estimates** as the fiscal year is not yet complete.

| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($ millions) | Net Earnings ($ millions) |

| :---------- | :------------------- | :------------------------- |

| **FY2015** | $93,580 | $12,193 |

| **FY2016** | $85,320 | $16,798 |

| **FY2017** | $89,950 | $21,204 |

| **FY2018** | $110,360 | $16,571 |

| **FY2019** | $125,843 | $39,240 |

| **FY2020** | $143,015 | $44,281 |

| **FY2021** | $168,088 | $61,271 |

| **FY2022** | $198,270 | $72,738 |

| **FY2023** | $211,915 | $72,361 |

| **FY2024** | $245,088 | $87,388 |

| **FY2025 (Est.)**| ~$273,500 | ~$101,500 |

**Key Context for the Data:**

* **FY2015-FY2017: The Nadella Transition.** Satya Nadella became CEO in 2014. This period shows the strategic shift away from one-time license sales (like Windows) toward cloud and subscription services (Azure, Office 365), which initially impacted revenue but soon began driving significant profit growth.

* **FY2018: One-Time Tax Charge.** The dip in net income was primarily due to a $13.7 billion one-time net charge related to the TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act).

* **FY2019-FY2022: The Cloud Hyper-Growth Era.** Revenue and earnings saw tremendous growth, fueled by the massive expansion of the Azure cloud platform, the dominance of Office 365, and the growth of LinkedIn and Dynamics.

* **FY2023: A Period of Consolidation.** Growth moderated due to macroeconomic headwinds that impacted cloud and enterprise spending. Net income was slightly down as the company continued heavy investment in AI.

* **FY2024: The AI Acceleration.** Revenue growth re-accelerated significantly, driven by the integration of AI capabilities across the entire tech stack (Copilot, Azure AI services). Profit margins expanded.

* **FY2025 (Est.): Sustained AI-Driven Growth.** Analysts project continued strong growth as Microsoft's early lead in generative AI, through its partnership with OpenAI and its own services, translates into broader market adoption and monetization.

---

### **Summary of CAGR (2015 to 2025E)**

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) provides a smoothed annual growth rate over the specified period.

**Period:** From the end of **Fiscal Year 2015** to the end of **estimated Fiscal Year 2025** (a 10-year period).

* **Revenue CAGR (FY2015 to FY2025E):**

* Starting Value (FY2015): $93,580 million

* Ending Value (FY2025E): ~$273,500 million

* Number of Years: 10

* **CAGR = ~11.3%**

* **Net Earnings CAGR (FY2015 to FY2025E):**

* Starting Value (FY2015): $12,193 million

* Ending Value (FY2025E): ~$101,500 million

* Number of Years: 10

* **CAGR = ~23.6%**

### **Conclusion**

Over the ten-year period from FY2015 to the projected FY2025, Microsoft has executed one of the most successful corporate transformations and financial performances in history.

* The **Revenue CAGR of approximately 11.3%** is highly impressive for a company of Microsoft's immense scale, demonstrating its ability to consistently find new growth vectors and expand its total addressable market.

* The even more remarkable **Net Earnings CAGR of ~23.6%** highlights the powerful financial model of its strategic shift. The transition to high-margin, recurring revenue streams (cloud subscriptions, Azure) has driven profitability to grow at more than twice the rate of revenue. This signifies tremendous operating leverage and a strategic mastery of the cloud and AI eras.

This decade under Satya Nadella's leadership has seen Microsoft evolve from a legacy software giant into a cloud-first, AI-first behemoth, with financial metrics that reflect its dominant and highly profitable market position.

***Disclaimer:*** *This information is for illustrative purposes only. Data for FY2015-FY2024 is historical. Data for FY2025 are analyst estimates and are not guaranteed. This is not financial advice. Investing in the stock market involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.*

Friday, 26 April 2024

The Magnificent Seven stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla

Dubbed the Magnificent Seven stocks, Apple, Microsoft, Google parent , Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla lived up to their name in 2023 with big gains. But the early part of the second quarter of 2024 showed a big divergence of returns.

Tuesday, 26 September 2023

MICROSOFT

Friday, 22 June 2012

Investor's Checklist: Technology Software

The software industry has economics few industries can match. Successful companies should have excellent growth prospects, expanding profit margins, and pristine financial health.

Companies with wide moats are more likely to produce above-average returns. But superior technology is one of the least sustainable competitive advantages in the software industry.

Look for software companies that have maintained good economics throughout multiple business cycles. We prefer companies that have been around at least several years.

License revenue is one of the best indicators of current demand because it represents how much new software was sold at a given time. Watch for any license revenue trends.

Rising days sales outstanding (DSOs) may indicate a company has extended easier credit terms to customers to close deals. This steals revenues from future quarters and may lead to revenue shortfalls.

If deferred revenue growth slows or the deferred revenue balance begins to decline, it may signal that the company's business has started to slow down.

The pace of change makes it tough to predict what software companies will look like in the future. For this reason, it's best to look for a big discount to intrinsic value before buying.

Ref: The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsey

Read also:
Investor's Checklist: A Guided Tour of the Market...

Thursday, 22 July 2010

What Would a Combined Microsoft-Yahoo Look Like?

http://techcrunch.com/2008/02/01/what-would-a-combined-microsoft-yahoo-look-like/

My 18 points guide to Successfully compounding your money in Stocks

Be a good stock picker.
Think as a business owner.
Always look at value rather than the price. Do the homework.
Buy and hold is alright for selected stocks.
Compounding is your friend, get this to work its magic.
Mr. Market is there to be taken advantage of. Do not be the sucker instead. BFS;STS.
Always buy a lot when the price is low.
Never buy when the stock is overpriced.
It is alright to buy when the selected stock is at a fair price.
Phasing in or dollar cost averaging is safe for such stocks during a downtrend, unless the price is still obviously too high.
Do not time the market for such or any stocks.
By keeping to the above strategy, the returns will be delivered through the growth of the company's business.
So, when do you sell the stock? Almost never, as long as the fundamentals remain sound and the future prospects intact.
The downside risk is protected through only buying when the price is low or fairly priced.
Tactical dynamic asset allocation or rebalancing based on valuation can be employed but this sounds easier than is practical, except in extreme market situations.
Sell urgently when the company business fundamental has deteriorated irreversibly.
You may also wish to sell should the growth of the company has obviously slowed and you can reinvest into another company with greater growth potential of similar quality. However, unlike point 16, you can do so leisurely.
In conclusion, a critical key to successful investing is in your stock picking ability.

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2012/07/my-18-points-guide-to-successfully.html

11 Lessons From Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch taught me:

1. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.
2. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
3. Over the short term, there may be no correlation between the success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock. Over the long term, there’s a 100% correlation.
4. Buying stocks without studying the companies is the same as playing poker – and never looking at your cards.
5. Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies.
6. Owning stock is like having children. Don’t get involved with more than you can handle.
7. When the insiders are buying, it’s a good sign.
8. Unless you’re a short seller, it never pays to be pessimistic.
9. A stock market decline is as predictable as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.
10. Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.
11. Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what’s actually happening to the companies in which you’ve invested.

Lynch’s advice had a profound effect on my stock market approach. He taught me that investment success isn’t the result of developing the right macro-economic view or deciding when to jump in or out of the market. Success is about researching companies to identify those that are likely to report positive surprises.

Capital Expenditure

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 25%. Less is better.

Capital Expenditures are expenses on:
- fixed assets such as equipment, property, or industrial buildings
- fixing problems with an asset
- preparing an asset to be used in business
- restoring property
- starting new businesses

A good company will have a ratio of Capital Expenditures to Net Income of less than 50%.

A great company with a Durable Competitive Advantage will have a ratio of less than 25%.

Less is better.

Benjamin Graham's 113 Wise Words

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Philip Fisher's Wise Words

"The refusal to sell at a loss, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process.

More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous."

(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Here is the overriding primary test, followed by observations on why it is so critically important:

Knowing all that you now know and expect about the company and its stock (not what you originally believed or hoped at time of purchase), and assuming that you had available capital, and assuming that it would not cause a portfolio imbalance to do so, would you buy this stock today, at today's price?

No equivocation. Yes or no?

Answers such as maybe or probably are not acceptable since they are ways of dodging the issue. No investor probably buys a stock; they either place an order or do not.

Here is the implication of your answer to that critical test: if you did not answer with a clear affirmative, you should sell; only if you said a strong yes, are you justified to hold.

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Ideally a stock you plan to purchase should have all of the following charateristics:

• A rising trend of earnings dividends and book value per share.
• A balance sheet with less debt than other companies in its particular industry.
• A P/E ratio no higher than average.
• A dividend yield that suits your particular needs.
• A below-average dividend pay-out ratio.
• A history of earnings and dividends not pockmarked by erratic ups and downs.
• Companies whose ROE is 15 or better.
• A ratio of price to cash flow (P/CF) that is not too high when compared to other stocks in the same industry.

Margin of Safety Concept: Stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume

The high CAGR in the early years of the investing period, due to buying at a discount, tended to decline and approach that of the intrinsic EPS GR of the companies over a longer investment time-frame.

Chapter 20 - “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept of Investment

A single quote by Graham on page 516 struck me:

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

Basically, Graham is saying that most stock investors lose money because they invest in companies that seem good at a particular point in time, but are lacking the fundamentals of a long-lasting stable company.

This seems obvious on the surface, but it’s actually a great argument for thinking more carefully about your individual stock investments. If most of your losses come from buying companies that seem healthy but really aren’t, isn’t that a profound argument for carefully studying any company you might invest in?

Bullbear Buffett

Thursday, 6 November 2025

The Magnificent 7 Stocks (10 years Revenues and Net Earnings records)

Microsoft's Revenue and Net Earnings (FY2015 - FY2025E)

Friday, 26 April 2024

The Magnificent Seven stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla

Tuesday, 26 September 2023

MICROSOFT

Friday, 22 June 2012

Investor's Checklist: Technology Software

Thursday, 22 July 2010

What Would a Combined Microsoft-Yahoo Look Like?

All equity security investments present a risk of loss of capital

The Ultimate Hold-versus-Sell Test

Some thoughts on Analysing Stocks (KISS)

Benjamin Graham

Sell the losers, let the winners run.

Investment Style

Warren Buffett

Political and Economic News

Interesting Blogs