Monday, 12 April 2010

PEG Ratio: Why It’s More Relevant than P/E for Stocks

PEG Ratio: Why It’s More Relevant than P/E for Stocks

by DARWIN on APRIL 6, 2010

While many individual investors are familiar with the conventional Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio, the PEG ratio isn’t cited nearly as often but it really puts a stock’s valuation in the proper context.  While a P/E ratio will tell you whether a stock is “highly priced” just based on a forward earnings expectations or trailing earnings reports, a PEG ratio is the P/E ratio divided by the stock’s long term annual growth rate.  Now, the problem is estimating just what that growth rate will be.  But for relatively mature companies with transparent investor updates, it’s not too tough to reasonably discern whether you’re in the right ballpark.

PEG Ratio vs. P/E Ratio:

Consider two stocks.
1) Mature industrial company with steady earnings year over year.  P/E = 10.
2) Nimble, fast growing company. P/E = 45.
Let’s say the broad market is trading at an aggregate Price to Earnings ratio of 12.  One investor may view stock 1 as a “value” and stock 2 as being absurdly overpriced.  However, when looking at each in terms of their projected growth rate, the pendulum swings the other way.  If stock 1  is a utility that’s expected to grow at about 5% per year and stock 2 is growing at 30% per year, in the context of future growth, the PEG ratios tell a different story:
1) Stock 1 PEG ratio = 10/5 = 2
2) Stock 2 PEG ratio = 50/25 =
Stock 2 now appears to be much more of a value.  Often times, stocks with high growth rates are more volatile and prone to massive price swings.  But if you’re able to hang on to a stock for a few years and the projected growth rate assumptions are reasonable, you’re often rewarded with a higher net return.  This is broadly reflected in the long term outperformance of tech stocks, biotech stocks, small caps and emerging market stocks vs. their counterparts.
When I provided my last portfolio update you will have noticed that many holdings fall into the stock 2 bucket since I’m young and have a long time horizon and my ultimate goal is to maximize investment returns.  Conversely, when I’m 55 and approaching retirement, I will likely be more focused on stability and income via high yield investments So, there’s no “right” way to invest, but it’s important to consider the context of your investments as well as your time horizon.
Do You Use the PEG Ratio in Evaluating Stock Purchases?

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