Tuesday, 17 February 2015

Petronas Dagangan

The stock price has risen from MR 2.00 in 2000 to MR 4.00 in 2005.

It has risen from MR 4.00 in 2005 to MR 8.00 in 2010.

From MR 8.00 in 2010, it has risen to MR 17.00 in 2015..

From 2000 to 2015, this stock has delivered multi-bagger returns.

Between 2000 to 2015, there were 3 big dips in the price of the stock, in 2001, 2009 and recent months.

Don't forget to add the GROWING dividends!

Latest February 2015  Special Dividend  0.22 
18 Nov 20140.12 Dividend
21 Aug 20140.14 Dividend
21 May 20140.12 Dividend
20 Feb 20140.175 Dividend
14 Nov 20130.175 Dividend
4 Sep 20130.175 Dividend
10 Jun 20130.175 Dividend
7 Mar 20130.175 Dividend
12 Dec 20120.175 Dividend
4 Sep 20120.175 Dividend
4 Jun 20120.175 Dividend
8 Mar 20120.15 Dividend
7 Dec 20110.15 Dividend
24 Aug 20110.15 Dividend
1 Aug 20110.35 Dividend
9 Dec 20100.30 Dividend
24 Feb 20052: 1 Stock Split
Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

3 Aug 20100.15 Dividend
7 Dec 20090.15 Dividend
5 Aug 20090.33 Dividend
10 Dec 20080.12 Dividend
1 Aug 20080.33 Dividend
14 Dec 20070.12 Dividend
12 Dec 20050.05 Dividend
17 Aug 20050.10 Dividend
30 Nov 20040.10 Dividend
5 Aug 20040.20 Dividend
10 Dec 20030.20 Dividend
23 Jul 20030.10 Dividend
22 Jul 20030.10 Dividend
Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

Comments:  5.2.2015

Revenue - Lower due to Decrease in Sales volume

Group Operating Profit  -  Lower due to lower gross margin and higher operating expenditure.

1.  Lower gross profit margin - Lower due to higher product cost due to unfavourable timing differences of the Mean of Platts Singapore ("MOPS"Smiley prices compared to corresponding quarter last year.

2.  Higher operating expenditure - mainly attributed to manpower expenses, ICT maintenance charges, advertising and promotion and net loss on foreign currency as US dollar weakened against Malaysian Ringgit during the current period compared to net gain on foreign currency during the corresponding period last year.

Increase in revenue - due to higher selling price 

Decrease in revenue - due to decrease in sales volume, despite a higher average selling price.

The downward trend in global oil prices has an adverse impact on PDB's margins.  

PDB's business is expected to be challenging as long as the downward trend is expected to continue.

How to defend its overall market leadership position?

1. Grow its business domestically - further strengthening its brand, sweating existing assets and continuosly enhancing customer relationship management.

2.  Continue its cost optimisation efforts - enhancement of supply and distribution efficienecy, improvement of terminal operational excellence to further improve cost of operations.


Results of PDB will be affected adversely when:

1.  US currency is weakening.  Cash

2.  The global oil price is trending downwards.    Cash

Do you think the fundamentals of PDB are permanently damaged or they are facing a temporary period of difficulties or challenges?   Smiley

How can PDB delivers better results?

1.  Increasing its volume sold.
2.  Lower average selling prices may lead to increase in volume sold.
3.  Operational efficiency - cost and expense minimisation - leading to increasing profit margins.
4.  When US dollar is appreciating or getting stronger.
5.  When global oil price is stabilised or increasing in price trend.

How To Save Money: 3 Common Methods

savings jars image
Amongst the millions of questions regarding financial matters, the most popular one is undoubtedly “How do I save my money?”. Here are 3 common ways that could help you save a sizable amount for when it’s time to retire.

1) Contribute to EPF, do NOT withdraw

For Malaysians, EPF is undoubtedly the easiest way to save your money. Your personal contribution of 11% aside, your employer’s mandatory contribution of 13% (for employees earning less than RM5,000 monthly salaries) makes it a total of 24% of your monthly wages saved under your name each and every month.
To top it off, EPF’s average return of 5% per year is significantly higher than any fixed deposit interests in the market right now.
Tips: Firstly, get employed at a company that contributes to EPF. Try to keep your money in your EPF account for as long as possible because there simply aren’t any other bank deposits with higher interest rates in the market. If you can help it, DO NOT use any of your EPF sub accounts to pay for your home or buy a computer, so you can take full advantage of EPF’s high interest rate to maximize your returns.

2) Put your money aside the good old fashion way

Saving your money requires determination and discipline. If you aren’t already doing so, try putting aside a small percentage of your salary every month-end and save it in a separate bank account, preferably one without any easy withdrawal facilities (eg. ATM).
When you have a moderate amount, transfer the money to a high-interest fixed deposit account so it can generate greater interests whilst stopping you from accessing the funds every time you feel like getting a new handphone or a new pair of shoes.
To find the best fixed deposits in the market right now, check out our fixed deposit comparison table.
Tips: Like many other things in life, saving is an endeavour that many find hard to adopt especially in the beginning. To ease yourself into your money-saving journey, you may wish to start off with a moderate amount (say 5-10% of your wages) so that it does not affect your cash flow to the extend of making you give up altogether. Over time, you can try to increase the amount as the act of saving becomes a habit. Also, when it comes to saving, it helps to start as young as possible so you can reap the benefits of compound interest over the long run.

3) Use your money to invest in something

If you have moderate tolerance to risk, are not close to retirement age and have a sizable amount in your savings or fixed deposit account, you’ll probably want to consider using some of the monies you have for investment purposes.
Be it in shares, gold or real estate; investment is a great way to save even MORE money because the potential returns are usually much greater than, say, putting your money into a bank. The downside, however, is that investment involves RISKS – the risk of non-performance from your investments, or in certain cases, the risk of total evaporation of value for your investments caused by adverse market conditions.
Tips: Not all categories of investments are born equal, so you are advised to do your homework well before you engage with any kind of investment. For example: properties are considered medium-risk investments; they generally enjoy consistent growth but they also have low liquidity (i.e. not easily turned to cash). Shares, on the other hand, are considered high-risk investments; they are prone to fluctuations in value caused by volatile market, which basically means you could potentially GAIN a lot or LOSE a lot. Whichever form of investment you choose, it is best to make a genuine effort to learn about it before you commit.

Love this article? You might also wish to read about the importance of diversification in investment.

How To Save Money: 3 Common Methods

Monday, 16 February 2015

The two things investors must do now, according to the Nobel laureate.

Shiller's back, and he has more depressing news

By Alex Rosenberg
Feb 14, 2015 2:08 PM

The two things investors must do now, according to the Nobel laureate.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller has a grim message for investors: Save up, because in the years ahead, assets aren't going to give you the type of returns that you've become accustomed to. In his third edition of "Irrational Exuberance," which will drop later this month, the Yale professor of economics warns about high prices for stocks and bonds alike. "Don't use your usual assumptions about returns going forward." Shiller recommended to investors in a Thursday interview on CNBC's " Futures Now ." He says that stock valuations look rich. In fact, Shiller's favorite valuation measure, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (which compares current prices to the prior 10 years' worth of earnings) is "higher than ever before except for the times around 1929, 2000, and 2008, all major market peaks," he writes in his new preface to the third edition. "It's very hard to predict turning points in markets," Shiller said on Thursday. His CAPE measure of the S&P 500 (CME:Index and Options Market: .INX) "could keep going up. ... But it's definitely high. By historical standards, it's up there." Meanwhile, Shiller said that bond yields, which move inversely to prices, "can't keep trending down" and "could [reach] a major turning point in coming years." It's no surprise, then, that Shiller expects little in the way of asset returns-meaning Americans will have to rely more heavily on the piggy bank.

Shiller warns bond investors: Beware of 'crash'! Given the current state of the stock and bond markets, "you might want to save more. A lot of people aren't saving enough. And incidentally, people are living longer now and health care is improving, you might end up retired for 30 years-people are not really preparing for that," he said. The other pillar of his advice is a classic tenant of responsible investing, with a global twist. "Diversify, because that helps reduce risk," Shiller said. "And you can diversify outside the United States. Some people would never invest in Europe-I think that's a mistake." Shiller adds that emerging markets can also provide attractive values. And indeed, valuations in much of the world are far lower than in the United States, given that investors are more optimistic about economic prospects in America than in nearly any other country. But perhaps people shouldn't base their investing decisions quite so heavily on predictions. "The future is always coming up with surprises for us, and the best way to insulate yourself from these surprises is to diversify," Shiller said.

Monday, 9 February 2015

PE multiple is rooted in discounting theory

Valuation using multiples has its fundamentals rooted in discounting.  It is a shortcut to valuation.

In this method, all factors considered in a general DCF including cost of capital and growth rates are compressed in one figure, namely the multiple figure.  Multiples are also market-based.

Let's look at PE in detail.

PE =  Price / Earnings

= PE x Earnings
= Earnings / (1/PE)

Compare this with the time-value of money equation:

PV = FV / (1+r)^n

or the dividend growth model:

PV = Div1 / (r-g)

Thus a PE multiple of 5 should nearly imply a discount rate of 20%.

The same goes for other kinds of multiples used in the financial markets:
EV/EBITDA multiples
Price/Cash flow.

They are all short cuts for discounting.  The EBITDA, Sales and Cash flows are all proxies of the free cash flow.


A valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them (most often using the weighted average cost of capital) to arrive at a present value, which is used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one.
Calculated as:

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Also known as the Discounted Cash Flows Model.

Reference:  Finance for Beginners  by Hafeez Kamaruzzaman

Thursday, 5 February 2015

SECRET MILLIONAIRE: Petrol station attendant leaves behind millions

05 February 2015 16:03

SECRET MILLIONAIRE: Petrol station attendant leaves behind millions

Perhaps the only clue that Ronald Read, a Vermont gas station attendant and janitor who died last year at age 92, had been quietly amassing an US$8 million (S$10 million) fortune was his habit of reading the Wall Street Journal, his friends and family say.
It was not until last week that the residents of Brattleboro would discover Read's little secret. That's when the local library and hospital received the bulk of his estate, built up over the years with savvy stock picks.
"Investing and cutting wood, he was good at both of them," his lawyer Laurie Rowell said on Wednesday, noting that he read the Journal every day.
Most of those who knew Read, described as a frugal and extremely private person, were aware that he could handle an axe. But next to no one knew how well he was handling his financial portfolio.

Read, the first person in his family to graduate from high school, dressed in worn flannel shirts and spent his free time scavenging for fallen branches for his home wood stove. He drove a second-hand Toyota Yaris.
"You'd never know the man was a millionaire," Rowell said. "The last time he came here, he parked far away in a spot where there were no meters so he could save the coins."
Read graduated from Brattleboro High School in 1940 and during World War II served in North Africa, Italy and the Pacific theatre. Returning home, he worked at Haviland's service station and then as a janitor at a JCPenney store, marrying a woman with two children.
Before his death on June 2, 2014, Read's only indulgence was eating breakfast at the local coffee shop, where he once tried to pay his bill only to find that someone had already covered it under the assumption he did not have the means, Rowell said.
Last week, Brooks Memorial Library and Brattleboro Memorial Hospital each received their largest bequests ever. Read left US$1.2 million to the library, founded in 1886, and US$4.8 million to the hospital, founded in 1904.
"It was a thunderbolt from the sky," said the library's executive director, Jerry Carbone. While a surprise, he said the gift made sense once he learned more about the quiet, shy library patron appropriately named Read.
"Being a self-made man with his investments, he recognised the transformative nature of a library, what it can do for people," Carbone said.
Read's stepchildren survive him but were not immediately available for comment. - Asiaone

Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=455171:secret-millionaire-petrol-station-attendant-leaves-behind-millions&Itemid=4#ixzz3QsFZjRIf

Monday, 2 February 2015

Staying Rational in a Falling Market, using rational price or rational value approach

Read the Market's Long-Term Performance

Those "buy-and-watch" physician-investors have experienced one of the most unsettling periods in their investment lives. They've seen the value of investments soar to heights that would have cast a shadow on Icarus, and then plummet to depths that few of us have ever seen. These extraordinary bubbles and busts have tested the faith that many have in fundamental investment principles and likely caused some to abandon their discipline. Many who stayed the course are still questioning whether they should have been able to tell when the market was going to take its dive.


Of course, the best way to keep your mind at ease through times like these is perspective. Those who are thoroughly grounded in long-term thinking know that these kinds of events are transient and will eventually work out. Patience and vigilance are the only attributes an investor needs to get through them. A new approach is found in rational price or rational value, which pertains to a portfolio whose stocks have been priced at their rational prices.

There's no question that the most recent bubble was the product of what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan termed "irrational exuberance."We now know that in the course of a year, the price of a stock can go up or down, departing as much as 50% from the average price. The distortion that applies to the price is also applicable to the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, which is a function of the price. Viewing the P/E ratio as merely a rate you pay for a dollar's worth of earnings makes perfect sense.

During the course of a 5-year cycle, the market's P/E ratio will typically make even greater departures from the norm. And several times during a century, excursions from the average can be extreme and either delightful or painful.

The significant thing for physician-investors to remember is this: If the price is truly driven by earnings in the long term, and successful methodology says that it is, then deviations in the P/E ratio, the "rate," must be caused by something other than earnings. If it weren't, the price and P/E ratio would always march in absolute lock step with the most recently reported earnings per share.


What is that mysterious force that causes the price and P/E ratio to vary up and down, sometimes by huge amounts? It's nothing more than the collective perception or opinion about the effect that the daily host of media reports, stories, current events, earnings forecasts, speculation, etc, will have on the economy, the market, an industry, or a company. It's fear, greed, paranoia, and euphoria that uninformed or over-informed speculators act on. These change every minute; reported earnings do not.

How, then, should you compensate for these fleeting, disconcerting, and often misleading trends? We recognize that the daily, short-term fluctuations in the P/E ratio are not important when compared to earnings over the long term. This allows us to calculate a rational price for each of our stocks and a rational value for our holdings.

Simply stated, the rational price tells what the price of our stock would be if the public's decisions to buy or sell were governed by earnings and not by all the unpredictable factors. In effect, the rational price answers the question, "If the public really had it together, what would they be paying for my stocks?"

To calculate a price, use the "signature P/E ratio" and earning per share. The simplest way to do this is to multiply a company's 10-year average P/E ratio by the most recent trailing 12 months' earnings. Once you've calculated your rational prices, you can analyze your portfolio and calculate its rational value (ie, the sum of the products of the number of shares and their rational prices).

The benefit to be derived from this exercise is significant. It puts whatever irrationality Mr. Market might be currently laboring under into perspective and gives you a view of just how irrational he is at any time. It's a way to quantify just how right you are compared to the rest of the world, which goes a long way toward providing comfort when times are bad, and tempering euphoria when they're good. And, if nothing else, it may be just the encouragement a physician-investor needs to stay the course. That may be the best medicine of all.

Ellis Traub, author of Take Stock: A Roadmap to Profiting from Your First Walk Down Wall Street (Dearborn; 2000), is chairman of the Inve$tWare Corp (www.investware.com), manufacturers of stock analysis software. He welcomes questions or comments at 954-723-9910, ext 222, or etraub@investware.com.
- See more at: http://www.hcplive.com/publications/pmd/2003/53/2654#sthash.4g85ciyZ.dpuf