Showing posts with label institutional investors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label institutional investors. Show all posts

Sunday 12 January 2020

Market Inefficiencies and Institutional Constraints

The research task does not end with the discovery of an apparent bargain. It is incumbent on investors to try to find out why the bargain has become available. 

If in 1990 you were looking for an ordinary, four-bedroom colonial home on a quarter acre in the Boston suburbs, you should have been prepared to pay at least $300,000. If you learned of one available for $150,000, your first reaction would not have been, "What a great bargain!" but, "What's wrong with it?" The same healthy skepticism applies to the stock market. A bargain should be inspected and reinspected for possible flaws. 


Irrational or indifferent selling alone may have made it cheap, but there may be more fundamental reasons for the depressed price.

  • Perhaps there are contingent liabilities or pending litigation that you are unaware of. 
  • Maybe a competitor is preparing to introduce a superior product. 
  • When the reason for the undervaluation can be clearly identified, it becomes an even better investment because the outcome is more predictable. 


By way of example, the legal constraint that prevents some institutional investors from purchasing low priced spinoffs is one possible explanation for undervaluation. Such reasons give investors some comfort that the price is not depressed for an undisclosed fundamental business reason.

Other institutional constraints can also create opportunities for value investors.  For example, many institutional investors . become major sellers of securities involved in risk-arbitrage transactions on the grounds that their mission is to invest in ongoing businesses, not speculate on takeovers. The resultant selling pressure can depress prices, increasing the returns available to arbitrage investors.

Institutional investors are commonly unwilling to buy or hold low-priced securities. Since any company can exercise a degree of control over its share price through splitting or reverse-splitting its outstanding shares, the financial rationale for this constraint is hard to understand. Why would a company's shares be a good buy at $15 a share but not at $3 after a five-for-one stock split or vice versa?

Many attractive investment opportunities result from market inefficiencies, that is, areas of the security markets in which information is not fully disseminated or in which supply and demand are temporarily out of balance. Almost no one on Wall Street, for example, follows, let alone recommends, small companies whose shares are closely held and infrequently traded; there are at most a handful of market makers in such stocks. Depending on the number of shareholders, such companies may not even be required by the SEC to file quarterly or annual reports. Obscurity and a very thin market can cause stocks to sell at depressed levels. 

Year-end tax selling also creates market inefficiencies. The Internal Revenue Code makes it attractive for investors to realize capital losses before the end of each year.  Selling driven by the calendar rather than by investment fundamentals frequently causes stocks that declined significantly during the year to decline still further. This generates opportunities for value investors.

Saturday 14 January 2017

Understanding these changes in the investment world allows investors to earn superior returns

The changing scenario in the investment world

The investment world has changed over the last several decades.

From 1950 to 1990, the institutional share of the market rose from 8% to 45%.

During the same period, institutions comprise 75% of market trading volume. 



The short-term mindset of the institutional investors

The institutions are hampered by a short-term mindset.  

Here are some reasons.

1.   Money managers tend to be rewarded not on what they return to clients, but rather as a percentage of their assets under management. 

A larger base of cash actually makes it more difficult to generate returns.

Thus there is a conflict between what's best for the manager and what's best for the investor.

2.   Institutional investors are also "locked into a short-term relative performance". 

Frequent comparative rankings among institutional investors forces a short-term mindset, as a long-term view can quickly send a manager to the unemployment line. 

As a result, these managers act as speculators rather than investors.

They try to guess what other managers will do, and try to do it first!

Only the brokers, who benefit from frequent trading, win this, as short-term market fluctuations are random


3.   Institutional investors are also constantly compared (and comparing themselves) to index benchmarks. 

Due to this relative comparison, they tend to prefer being close to 100% invested, even if things don't look cheap on an absolutely basis, which hurts investors when stocks are expensive.

4.  Money managers rarely invest their funds along with their clients.

In this conflict of interest situations, it is clear that the management firm wins.



Economist Paul Rosenstein:

"In the build­ing practices of ancient Rome, when scaffolding was removed from a completed Roman arch, the Roman engineer stood beneath. If the arch came crashing down, he was the first to know. Thus his concern for the quality of the arch was intensely personal, and it is not surprising that so many Roman arches have survived."





Read also:


Tuesday 21 February 2012

Market Inefficiencies and Institutional Constraint: The Challenge of Finding Attractive Investments

The research task does not end with the discovery of an apparent bargain. It is incumbent on investors to try to find out why the bargain has become available.
  • If in 1990 you were looking for an ordinary, four-bedroom colonial home on a quarter acre in the Boston suburbs, you should have been prepared to pay at least $300,000. 
  • If you learned of one available for $150,000, your first reaction would not have been, "What a great bargain!" but,"What's wrong with it?"

The same healthy skepticism applies to the stock market. A bargain should be inspected and reinspected for possible flaws.
  • Irrational or indifferent selling alone may have made it cheap, but there may be more fundamental reasons for the depressed price. 
  • Perhaps there are contingent liabilities or pending litigation that you are unaware of. 
  • Maybe a competitor is preparing to introduce a superior product.

When the reason for the undervaluation can be clearly identified, it becomes an even better investment because the outcome is more predictable. 
  • By way of example, the legal constraint that prevents some institutional investors from purchasing low priced spin offs is one possible explanation for undervaluation. 
  • Such reasons give investors some comfort that the price is not depressed for an undisclosed fundamental business reason.


Other institutional constrain can also create opportunities for value investors.

1.  For example, many institutional investors become major sellers of securities involved in risk-arbitrage transactions on the grounds that their mission is to invest in ongoing businesses, not speculate on takeovers. 
  • The resultant selling pressure can depress prices, increasing the returns available to arbitrage investors.

2.  Institutional investors are commonly unwilling to to buy or hold low-priced securities. 
  • Since any company can exercise a degree of control over its share price through splitting or reverse-splitting its outstanding shares, the financial rationale for this constraint is hard to understand. 
  •  Why would a company's shares be a good buy at $15 a share but not at $3 after a five-for-one stock split or vice versa?

3.  Many attractive investment opportunities result from market inefficiencies, that is, areas of the security markets in which information is not fully disseminated or in which supply and demand are temporarily out of balance. 
  • Almost no one on Wall Street, for example, follows, let a lone recommends, small companies whose shares are closely held and infrequently traded; there are at most a handful of market makers in such stocks.
  • Depending on the number of shareholders, such companies may not even be required by the SEC to file quarterly or annual reports.  
  • Obscurity and a very thin market can cause stocks to sell at pressed levels.

4.  Year-end tax selling also creates market inefficiencies.
  • The International Revenue Code makes it attractive for investors to realize capital losses before the end of each year. 
  • Selling driven by the calendar rather than by investment fundamentals frequently causes stocks that declined significantly during the year to decline still further. This generates opportunities for value investors.

Saturday 25 December 2010

Bursa Malaysia: Follow the 'smart money'


It is probably wise to follow the "smart money" in investment. When smart money buys, we buy. When smart money sells, we sell.  What is smart money? How do we know which is smart money? When do we know smart money has started buying? Also, how do we know that the smart money is really "smart"?

What is smart money?
Smart money is a fund that is supposed to be influential and has a strong impact on stock prices. It is supposed to be well informed and know exactly when and what to invest.

Its actions may also move prices. Because of its reputation as a market mover, it is able to attract many followers who also join in the purchases, causing stock prices to move further. If smart money can make money most of the time, then tracking the investments of smart money and following its footsteps can be a profitable strategy.

In this article, we will discuss several types of smart money, some of which are really "smart" but some may have limited impact on the market.


Accumulation by owners
Purchases by owners of listed companies are deemed to be influential. As owners, they are required to make disclosures to the exchange after each purchase, and their transactions are regularly monitored by the market players.

Owners are supposed to know what happens in their companies. They know the prospects of the company. The future direction of the company is literally in their hands. There are many plans that they have for the company, which may not have been brought to the board for consideration. In many instances, preliminary discussions on deals are engaged by the owners privately.

Many dealmakers prefer to talk to owners who can make immediate decision on a deal, as getting the board's approval is probably just a formality if the owners have already agreed to the deal.

On the other hand, if there are troubles ahead, owners are definitely the first to sense them. If the company is not doing well or if its earnings are not improving, it is unlikely that the owners will buy the stock. They will probably wait for a better time to buy. At least, this is the perception of investors.

Investors will also feel more confident to participate in the stock if the owners have the confidence to buy the stock. Even if the stock price does not go up after a series of purchases by the owners, there is no pressure for other shareholders to sell.
On the other hand, if the market comes to know that an owner has been disposing of his stock in the market regularly or in large quantities, they may become very uncomfortable and wonder what's going wrong. Is there something that the owner knows that the public is not aware of? As such, disposals by owners will have more impact than their purchases.

However, owners of listed companies may have multiple objectives and it could be difficult to read their minds.

?
First, the owners may own a big percentage of the company and what they are buying could just be a small fraction of what they own. They may just want to support the share price to instil confidence in the market.

?
Second, if the owners pledged their shares to banks (owners' shares under nominees are likely to be pledged), they may need to support the share price to prevent force-selling by banks if the share price falls below a certain level.

? Third, owners prefer to invest in their own shares. Even if their stock is undervalued, there is no guarantee that it will go up, as there could be other stocks that are more attractive to fund managers.

?
Lastly, owners may also give a false impression of their action, as they may buy smaller quantities under their names but at the same time sell larger amount using nominee names, which is not uncommon in this part of the world.

As such, following this type of "smart money" may not be very reliable. Therefore, we need to know the character of the owners and whether they are credible or not.

Purchases by the EPF
The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) is the largest local equity investor in our stock market. It was reported that the EPF accounted for as much as 50% of the total traded volume during certain periods. Since the EPF is a large player, its actions have far-reaching impact on prices of many stocks.

Since most of its investments exceed 5% of the stock's paid-up capital, the EPF make regular disclosures on their purchases and disposals.
Sometimes, investors are puzzled why the EPF trades regularly between buy and sell.

The presumably unclear direction of trades is because the provident fund also appoints external fund managers (EFMs) who have the full discretion to buy or sell. As such, sometimes the EPF could be buying a stock but their EFMs could be selling the same stock on the same day.

In certain cases, one EFM buys but another EFM could be selling at the same time or a few days later. Hence, the disclosure by the EPF is a combination of trades by its internal fund managers as well as that of EFMs.

Due to the difference in opinion between the EPF and its EFMs, there is no clear signal of the direction of this powerful domestic fund. The fund could be big, but they are not "united" and they are in fact competing with each other. This is also a way to generate liquidity in the market. As such, relying on the trades of this "smart money" for direction may not be very reliable.

Even if the fund is buying a particular stock persistently, we observe that the stock price may not seem to rise substantially. This may be linked to the way the orders are placed - that is, they tend to buy lower after a completed trade. This is different from the trading style of foreign fund managers, which we shall discuss later in this article.

Actions of local institutions
Although other local institutions are smaller in size than the the EPF, they could be more focused when it comes to buying a stock. Generally, purchases on big-cap stocks by local institutions may not have much impact on the stock price.

Since big-cap stocks are widely owned by most local funds, such as mutual funds, insurance companies and asset management companies, for every purchase to lift the stock price, there could be several funds waiting to sell to the buyer. Local institutions are competing with each other to achieve maximum returns as they have their own stakeholders to answer to.

As the market continues to rise, more and more local institutions are seeking investment opportunities in undiscovered stocks and unpolished gems. Research houses are competing with each other to identify growth stocks with good earnings prospects and "good story" to satisfy the appetite of local funds and entice them to buy.

Most of these stocks are the tightly held mid- to small-cap stocks, where the valuation is generally much cheaper than that of the big-cap stocks. If the "story" is compelling, more funds are likely to participate in the purchases. If there are also private placements from the owners or by the company, a stock may attract even more interest and can move quite fast.
A stock may be attractive from various angles, but if there is no liquidity, most funds are hesitant to participate due to the lack of liquidity to get out when the need arises. When funds started to buy a stock, the rise in the share price is likely to bring out some sellers, which will lead to improved liquidity. The subsequent improvement in liquidity will in turn attract even more funds to partake in the "game". If there are sufficient "followers" the stock price will continue to climb; otherwise, it may just fizzle out a short jerk.

As such, local institutions could be a useful "smart money" to follow if they start to have position in smaller cap stocks. A neglected stock may turn out to be a star performer if the stock has been successfully promoted. There are a number of such well-promoted stocks which have performed very well this year.

Share buyback 
In the case of share buyback schemes by certain listed companies, this provides yet another hint to investors that the management believes the stocks are undervalued. Although share buybacks may not be very popular among listed companies in Malaysia, there are a number of listed companies that buy back their own shares regularly. The impact on the stock price will depend on how aggressive the share buyback is conducted. The degree of "aggressiveness" depends on the percentage of shares being bought back and the proportion of the share buyback against the daily traded volume.

From our observation, share buybacks seldom have much impact on stock price. Such repurchase of own share will definitely reduce the free-float of the stock in the market, but moving the stock price to a higher level is another issue. Share buyback may clear off some of the weak holders and place the stock in a good position to run if other strong buyers emerge. But for the stock to attract strong buyers, it must deliver results and show growth potential.

Buying by insiders 
Insiders are those who hold key positions in a company or those who have access to information not known to the public. Insiders include directors of the company, company secretary, senior management, corporate lawyer, auditors, merchant bankers who handle important corporate information for the company.

Because key personnel have unfair advantage over the public, it is illegal to trade on insider information, which unfortunately is very difficult to prove. To reduce the incidence of insider trading, blackout periods for the trading of stock are imposed before the release of important announcements and these include the announcement of quarterly results, right/bonus/split issues and other material announcements, which may have a strong impact on the share price.

The purchases made by insiders are difficult to detect. A sudden share price movement of a stock is usually suspected to be related to insiders who may use nominees to avoid detection. The only way to detect possible insider trading is through technical charts, which may reveal such activities from price movement as well as changes in volume. Otherwise, it is difficult to identify this type of "smart money".

Syndicate buying
A syndicate is also another influential force, as it normally focuses on a handful of stocks. The objective of such a syndicate is to make money. They may act independently or with the help of the owners or top management. They may or may not play based on insider information. If there is a stock worth buying with the intention to sell at a higher level, they will be interested. Stocks selected by a syndicate could be purely because of cheap valuation or some impending news, which could be entirely conceptual.

Although syndicated play could be powerful, their movement is very secretive and hard to predict. As a syndicate is out there to make money, they will use all sorts of tactics to achieve their objectives. The tricks may include dissemination of untimely rumours just to lure in other punters to help them to stir the market. Unknowing speculators could be drawn in by their own greed.

Going along with a syndicate is a risky game, as they will not disclose their game plan. They can play one game on the surface but at the same time be selling quietly at the back.

Inflow of foreign funds
Perhaps the most influential smart money is foreign funds. Foreign funds come in droves, which is more powerful than if they act individually. The movement of foreign funds, or simply hot money, follows certain investment themes for investment purposes. Their investment duration is normally fairly long to achieve maximum profit. One of the factors driving the flow of foreign funds is the direction of the US dollar. When the US dollar weakens, this hot money will flow to emerging markets and to Asia, causing market here to rise (See charts).




There is a number of reasons why following the footsteps of foreign fund managers are more reliable:

? Purchases by foreign fund managers are more dynamic, as they normally push up the share price when buying. In this way, not only can they obtain the quantity of shares required, they can also record immediate price appreciation.

? The quantity allocated to each stock is normally larger, as foreign funds are normally bigger in size and hence have bigger allocations.

? Unlike local funds, which probably have two dozen or more stocks,
foreign funds normally select a handful of local stocks to invest.

Summary
The strategy of investing by following the "smart money" must be very selective, as many of them are either not very effective or not reliable. It is better to follow foreign funds, which are more powerful and less deceitful.


Source: The EdgeDaily
Written by Ang Kok Heng   
Monday, 20 December 2010 11:01
Ang has 20 years' experience in research and investment. He is currently the chief investment officer of Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd.

Thursday 10 June 2010

Buffett (2002): "Independent" directors: How independent are they?

Warren Buffett complained about failings of independent directors in his letter to shareholders for the year 2002. Let us go further down the same letter and see what other investment wisdom he has on offer.

'Independent' directors: How independent are they?


It is a known fact that Buffett pays a great deal of attention to the management of companies before investing in them. And the reasons behind this obsession may not be difficult to find. Since it is the management that is responsible for making most of the capital allocation decisions in a business, which in turn are central for creating long-term shareholder value, it is imperative that a management allocates capital in the most rational manner possible.

However, as we saw in the last article, the list of managers or CEOs with a 'quick rich' syndrome is swelling to dangerous proportions, thus forcing shareholders to pin all their hopes on the board of a company or more importantly on the independent directors for a bail out. But as mentioned by Buffett, most independent directors (including him) on several occasions have failed in their attempt to protect the interest of shareholders owing to a variety of reasons.

After narrating his experience as an independent director, the master moves on and gives one more example where independent directors have failed miserably to protect shareholder interest. The companies under consideration are investment companies (mutual funds). The master says that directors in these companies have only two major roles, 

  • that of hiring the best possible manager and 
  • negotiating with him for the best possible fee. 
However, even while performing these basic duties, the independent directors have failed their shareholders and he goes on to cite a 62-year case study from which he has derived his findings.

Even in an era where shareholdings have gotten concentrated, some institutions find it difficult to make management changes necessary to create long-term shareholder value because these very institutions have been found to be sailing in the same boat i.e., neglecting shareholder value so that only a handful of people benefit. Buffett goes on to add that thankfully there have been some people at some institutions that by virtue of their voting power have forced CEOs to take rational decisions.

Let us hear in Buffett's own words, his take on the issue:

Master's golden words


Buffett says, "So that we may further see the failings of 'independence', let's look at a 62-year case study covering thousands of companies. Since 1940, federal law has mandated that a large proportion of the directors of investment companies (most of these mutual funds) be independent. The requirement was originally 40% and now it is 50%. In any case, the typical fund has long operated with a majority of directors who qualify as independent. These directors and the entire board have many perfunctory duties, but in actuality have only two important responsibilities:

  • obtaining the best possible investment manager and 
  • negotiating with that manager for the lowest possible fee. 
When you are seeking investment help yourself, these two goals are the only ones that count, and directors acting for other investors should have exactly the same priorities. Yet when it comes to independent directors pursuing either goal, their record has been absolutely pathetic."

On the increased ownership concentration and how certain people are forcing managers to act rational, Buffett has the following to say - "Getting rid of mediocre CEOs and eliminating overreaching by the able ones requires action by owners - big owners. The logistics aren't that tough: The ownership of stock has grown increasingly concentrated in recent decades, and today it would be easy for institutional managers to exert their will on problem situations. Twenty, or even fewer, of the largest institutions, acting together, could effectively reform corporate governance at a given company, simply by withholding their votes for directors who were tolerating odious behavior."

He goes on, in my view, this kind of concerted action is the only way that corporate stewardship can be meaningfully improved. Unfortunately, certain major investing institutions have 'glass house' problems in arguing for better governance elsewhere; they would shudder, for example, at the thought of their own performance and fees being closely inspected by their own boards. But Jack Bogle of Vanguard fame, Chris Davis of Davis Advisors, and Bill Miller of Legg Mason are now offering leadership in getting CEOs to treat their owners properly. Pension funds, as well as other fiduciaries, will reap better investment returns in the future if they support these men."

Saturday 5 June 2010

Institutional and retail investors in the GCC have short time horizons compared to global benchmarks

Friday 4th, June 2010 -- 23:20 GMT
Invesco Middle East Asset Management Study finds a consistently high demand for emerging markets across the region

Posted: 26-05-2010 , 09:35 GMT

Invesco Asset Management Limited today unveiled the findings of its inaugural Invesco Middle East Asset Management Study. This regional study is the first of its kind and reveals a fascinating insight into the complex and sophisticated investment habits of this continually evolving region. The company, who opened its Dubai office in 2005, has been working with Middle East clients for decades, offering financial institutions and investment professionals access to global investment expertise.

Surveying the attitudes and behaviours of both institutional and retail markets across the six Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, the study revealed a number of key findings:
• There is currently a consistently high demand for emerging markets across all companies and territories
• Institutional and retail investors in the GCC have short time horizons compared to global benchmarks
• Investor location within the GCC has a strong influence on exposure to investment sectors


Interestingly, the study also indicated that both the institutional and retail market are becoming increasingly risk averse.

Nick Tolchard, Head of Invesco Middle East commented: “The Middle East is often portrayed as a homogenous region; this report clearly shows this is not the case, though there are some surprising similarities. The influence of investor location over asset allocation makes it quite clear that the Middle East is a highly diverse investment region.”

He continued: “We believe that this diversity is explained by access to investment products, which varies across the region. Certain markets, such as Saudi Arabia, have restricted access to international investments whereas others, such as the UAE, are dominated by offshore life wrappers with large international fund ranges.”

Investor type also plays a key role in asset allocation, according to the study. In the growing retail market, preferences vary according to distributer. Private client portfolio managers favour global equities and alternative assets, while retail banks prefer local equities and cash and IFAs opt for global equities and cash.

On the institutional side, preferences are even more diverse:
o Sovereign Wealth Funds prefer alternative investments (private equity and hedge funds)
o Institutional investors tend to invest in mainstream asset classes (equities, bonds and cash)
o Corporates (commercial banks and diversified financial services) prefer local over international assets.
o Asset managers prefer property

Commenting on these asset allocation preferences, Nick Tolchard said: “Sovereign Wealth Funds’ preference for private equity and hedge funds may align to opportunistic investment strategies to exploit any short-term market volatility and below average allocations to local securities and commodities is expected given that the source of funding for Sovereign Wealth Funds (government revenue) is heavily dependent on commodity prices and the performance of the local economy.”

In addition, one of the most striking findings is the universal preference for emerging market assets. Across all participants 82% of respondents forecast exposure to emerging markets over the next 3-5 years compared to 30% for North America, 14% for Europe and 8% for Japan. The key driver for this appears to be simply that GCC investors expect returns to exceed those in developed markets.

The Retail and institutional respondents in the GCC are also unified by their perceptions of change in risk appetite – they have indicated that 79% of institutional and 70% of retail investors have changed their attitude to risk in the last six to twelve months and in both cases, more investors have become increasingly risk averse.

In addition, the study indicated that the respondents also share similar very short-term investment time horizons, 38% of retail respondents have a time horizon of less than a year compared to 33% in the institutional market. Of those surveyed, only 12% of institutional respondents have an investment horizon beyond 5 years, significantly below global comparatives for institutional markets.* Invesco believes that the short retail time horizons in the retail market can be explained by the transient nature of retail expatriate clients, investment losses during the global financial crisis and the coverage on Dubai’s debt restructuring. Looking forward it expects retail time horizons to lengthen as markets stabilise, but to remain shorter than global retail benchmarks.

Nick Tolchard explained: “Perhaps the most surprising finding was the short term and highly volatile investment attitudes in the institutional sector. However, this could be explained by nimble and fast moving investment behaviour of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the GCC region, in contrast to other institutional markets which are typically dominated by large insurance and pension funds managing a high proportion of their assets against long-term liabilities.”

He concluded: “The Middle East is a growing investor force in the world and we see this research as part of our strategic commitment to understanding the perspective of investors, as well as the investment and savings culture of the Middle East. We intend to carry out this research on a regular basis, monitoring the retail investment market as it continues to grow, and learning even more about the behaviour and preferences of the highly sophisticated institutions operating in the GCC.”
© 2010 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)

http://www.menareport.com/en/business/316494


Summary:

This research studied the investment and savings culture of the Middle East. It highlights the growing retail investment market and the behaviour and preferences of the highly sophisticated institutions operating in the GCC.


The study indicated that the respondents share similar very short-term investment time horizons, 
  • 38% of retail respondents have a time horizon of less than a year compared to 33% in the institutional market. 
  • Of those surveyed, only 12% of institutional respondents have an investment horizon beyond 5 years, significantly below global comparatives for institutional markets.
* Invesco believes that the short retail time horizons in the retail market can be explained by
  • the transient nature of retail expatriate clients,
  • investment losses during the global financial crisis and 
  • the coverage on Dubai’s debt restructuring. 
Looking forward it expects retail time horizons to lengthen as markets stabilise, but to remain shorter than global retail benchmarks.

Perhaps the most surprising finding was the short term and highly volatile investment attitudes in the institutional sector. 
  • However, this could be explained by nimble and fast moving investment behaviour of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the GCC region, in contrast to other institutional markets which are typically dominated by large insurance and pension funds managing a high proportion of their assets against long-term liabilities.”